h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before the Season Even Starts: Trevor Cahill

Trevor Cahill – Current ADP 92 – My Rank: 111th pitcher; 88th SP

I wanted to get in on this before the Twitter universe completely bashes anyone taking Cahill anywhere near the top 10 rounds – it’s a massive mistake.

There is no denying Cahill’s 2.97 ERA last season or his 1.11 WHIP – those will play and lead to excellence in tough categories to wrangle. However, he only posted a 5.4 K/9 rate, which lead to a paltry 118 Ks last season. Those Ks put him 73rd overall, behind such immortals as Jeremy Guthrie, Fausto Carmona, Jeff Neimann, Kevin Millwood, Joe Blanton, Jason Hammel, Anibal Sanchez, Barry Zito, etc. etc. etc.

In short, even in the best of times, Cahill isn’t a real impact arm. And believe me, 2010 was by far the best of times. Cahill had a 76.5% strand rate (a number that is usually around 70% and completely out of a pitcher’s control) and a .236 BABip (a number that a pitcher can control somewhat but also requires slick fielders behind him – the typical BABip is around .300).

Batters made contact with Cahill’s pitches 84.9% of the time – so I see little optimism for him improving his K-rate. Meaning we are looking, once again, at a guy who will, at most, strike out 130 batters. Let’s also suppose his strand rate normalizes a tad and use the BABip Bill James projects for Cahill (.260). Even with that low BABip, Cahill’s ERA will balloon to 3.67 and there is a chance he’ll be much worse.

Remember when I tried my darndest to warn people off Rick Porcello? Well, Cahill’s 2011 could be just as bad – seriously stay away.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

________________________________________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discreetly of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).