h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Mark Teixeira

Mark Teixeira – Current ADP 12; 5th 1b – My Rank: 27; 6th 1b

Mark Teixeira was barely in the top 20 first basemen in batting average – he was 19th. He was not in the top five in HRs at his position (he was sixth). He was tied for fifth in RBIs and he was second in runs. He did not steal a base.

Coming off three straight .290+ seasons, clearly 2010’s batting average (.256) was a shock. While his K-rate increased a smidge, his BABip declined from a career line of .303 to .268. This was not due to a change in line drives, ground balls, or fly balls – all were about the same as 2009. Of course, since joining the Yankees, Teixeira has gone from hitting about 40% fly balls to averaging about 44% – and, somewhat surprisingly, his HR/FB rate has declined since joining the Yankees.

The major 2010 culprit: Teixeira swung at more pitches out of the strike zone than he has in any previous year. The rate was about five percent more than his career average. In addition, pitchers seemed to catch on as Teixeira saw a lot less pitches inside the strike zone than he normally does.

I just threw a ton of numbers and percentages and ratios at you. Basically, his BABip was historically low and it should rebound. However, given that his patience at the plate has declined (as noted by his increasing fly ball percentages and swings at balls outside the zone), he won’t return to his .290/.300 hitting self.

In short, Teixeira looks like a guy who will hit .280 with 35 HRs, 100 runs and 120 RBIs. Is that much better than Adam Dunn who is going 38 picks later? Or Andre Ethier who is going 23 picks later? Given the depth of the position, I don’t see a need to select Teixeira at the end of the first round – his value is a lot closer to the third round than the first.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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