h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Mike Aviles

Mike Aviles – Current ADP 154; 13th 2b; 12th SS (if he qualifies) – My Rank: 92; 12th 2b; 9th SS (if he qualifies)

Three years ago is a long time…three years ago I didn’t own a house, three years ago I didn’t know my girlfriend, three years ago was three jobs ago, and three years ago was Mike Aviles’ time in the sun.

Aviles, at that time, was 27 years-old and had never had an at bat in the majors. Never a highly touted minor league player, Aviles would appear in 102 games for the Royals and post a .325/.354/.480 line with 10 HRs and eight SBs. Visions of a 20/20 season danced in fantasy analysts head.

But, alas, Aviles benefited from a .357 BABip in ’08 and got bit hard by the injury bug in ’09 – ending in a miserable campaign.

Coming into 2010, Aviles was an afterthought for even the lowly Royals – however he eventually played in 110 games and produced similar results to 2008: .304/.335/.413 with eight HRs and 14 SBs.

Until Mike Moustakas is ready for the majors, Aviles should have a spot in the Royals infield – making it likely he plays in 140+ games. If that happens, he’ll be a sneaky useful middle-infield option capable of going .290/.320/.420 with 10-15 HRs and double digit steals.

So far it looks like Aviles is being appropriately valued in most mock drafts – he is definitely a mid-to-late teens rounder. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes far later in some drafts either.

Also, Aviles and I share a birthday with Will Clark!

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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