h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Bobby Abreu

Bobby Abreu – Current ADP 117; 32nd OF – My Rank: 50th hitter; 24th OF

Bobby Abreu turned 36 today. His 2010 was the worst full season of his career. Still he did manage to hit 20 HRs and steal 24 bases. Over the last three years he has averaged 18 HRs, 25 SBs and a .281/.371/.448 line.

So the major question with Abreu is whether 2010 signals the start of a major decline or a small blip for a man whose value is derived a lot from his legs.

I, quite clearly, think not, therefore I am…a fan.

For one thing, his 2010 BABip was about .040 lower than typical which is part of the culprit of his plummeting batting average. Sure, his line drive percentage has declined for the last three seasons and his fly ball percentage has increased during the same timeframe but his contact rate has remained relatively stable.

While those are red flags, I don’t think there are death bells for his career. For one, he hit 41 doubles last year and continues to steal with a 70% success rate – so his legs clearly haven’t left him.

With a small increase in his BABip and batted ball rates, Abreu will hit over .265, with upside to the .270s. With all the walks he takes (13%), he should post an OBP around .360 which means he’s a lock for 90+ runs. In addition, I think you’ll get the usual 18-20 HRs and 23-25 SBs.

As someone you can get outside the top 10 rounds, he should provide almost double your value. Happy birthday Bobby Abreu! I look forward to drafting you again!

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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