h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Tim Hudson

Tim Hudson – Current ADP 151; 39th SP – My Rank: 80th pitcher; 65th SP

I was tempted to just copy and paste the Trevor Cahill entry, but that’s just too easy.

Over the last three full seasons he has pitched, Hudson has averaged 137 Ks. That is as many as Chris Narveson had last year and less than Jason Hammel, Barry Zito, Anibal Sanchez, Hiroki Kuroda and others.

Of course, Hudson isn’t being drafted for his K/9 rate (which hasn’t been over six since 2003), he is being drafted for his ratios. Last year he put up a 2.83 ERA and 1.15 WHIP – not completely out of line with what he has done recently or for his career. Still it was his second best ERA and WHIP ever. To do that as a 34-year-old is impressive.

To expect him to replicate something he has only done twice 12-year career is foolish.

Last year, Hudson pitched well and things broke his way. He benefited from a superior bullpen as 81.2% of runners he allowed to get on base were stranded – this number is typically around 70%. In addition, he posted a Ruthian-er-Cahillian BABip (.249). Only twice was he within .013 of that and only four times has his BABip been under .279. His career BABip is .280. He did get a massive decrease in his line drive percentage, which showed up evenly in his fly ball and ground ball percentages.

Clearly, Hudson is an exception to the .300 BABip norm – however he’s not a sub-.250 BABip pitcher – no one is. I’ll give him a BABip around .280 and somewhat normal strand rate at around 74% to go 220 IPs and a 5.7 K/9 rate.

You know what that gets you? A 3.40 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 139 Ks. Clearly that’s good, but not at all special. That’s basically Hiroki Kuroda or Jon Garland or Dallas Braden. Those are the pitchers he is similar to, yet he’s getting drafted around Ricky Romero, Brett Myers, Jonathan Sanchez, Gio Gonzalez and others.

I won’t own Hudson at that price tag and nor should you.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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