Posts Tagged ‘2011 Ranks’

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Matt Joyce

Matt Joyce – Current ADP 385; 86th OF – My Rank: 241; 108th OF Continue reading

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Tim Hudson

Tim Hudson – Current ADP 151; 39th SP – My Rank: 80th pitcher; 65th SP Continue reading

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Bobby Abreu

Bobby Abreu – Current ADP 117; 32nd OF – My Rank: 50th hitter; 24th OF Continue reading

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: James McDonald

James McDonald – Current ADP 295; 82nd SP – My Rank: 116th pitcher; 93rd SP

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h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Pedro Alvarez

Pedro Alvarez – Current ADP 83; 7th 3B – My Rank: 148th hitter; 21st 3B

Every year there is at least one hot young player that keeps getting pimped like he is Mary Magdalene. Like Chris Davis a few years ago, Alex Gordon, Brandon Wood and Dallas McPherson before that, people tend to spend top 10 round selections on guys that do way more to hurt their fake team than help (we’re talking the cost it takes to acquire the player plus potentially negative statistics).

I’m not sure Alvarez is that player this year, I believe in him from a power standpoint – however he is going way too high, especially relative to established guys at his position.

Across AAA and the majors last season, Alvarez hit 29 HRs. That’s some real and awesome power – he also paired it with a .256 average in the majors.

However, in the majors, he struck out 34.3% of the time and posted a .341 BABip (which isn’t unsustainable but seems high for someone like him). He also hit grounders 45.7% of the time last year which might limit him from getting massive power numbers.

I’m reticent to spend a top 10 round pick on a guy who will strike-out near 30% of the time, did the bulk of his damage in September/October (.306/.355/.577) and, even in the best of circumstances, will not help in average or stolen bases.

I don’t think he’ll be a bust, but for that price tag, I’d rather have Colby Rasmus, Alexei Ramirez, Aramis Ramirez and others.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Colby Rasmus

Colby Rasmus – Current ADP 88; 22nd OF – My Rank: 57th hitter; 26th OF

From a non-scientific and entirely casual Google exploration of the answer of “who is 2011’s CarGo?” Colby Rasmus seems to get the lion share of the answers.

However, I’m not quite sure the 24-year-old is ready to make that kind of leap.

That said, I do think he will outperform his current ADP – albeit slightly. I just don’t buy his career trajectory as something like CarGo’s (and seriously that was a once in a million years season).

Instead, Rasmus reminds me a lot more of Jay Bruce. At 21, Bruce showed all the promise in the world, hitting 21 HRs in just 108 games. However his sophomore campaign would not go as expected – he’d bat .223, battle injuries/demotions and appear in just 101 games. Of course a fair amount of bad luck (.221 BABip) played a part in that disappointing season.

Nevertheless, I see some similar warning signs with Rasmus – last season he had a .354 BABip – it was .282 the year before and never that far north of .300 in the minors.

In addition, in 2010, he didn’t hit anymore line drives, but did significantly increase his HR/FB% (from 9.4 to 14.8). Given those two things and a k-rate that will be north of 24%, I don’t think he has the chance to hit .280 or so, nor do I see an exceptional power upside.

I see Rasmus more as a .260 hitter with 20-25 HRs – i.e., a slightly better version of Bruce’s sophomore campaign – but short of what someone like Nick Swisher will provide.

The thing Rasmus has that Swisher doesn’t is a chance to steal 15-20 bases (which he did from 2006-2008 in the minors). Still, the conservative projector in me has him much closer to 15.

Basically, I’m in the odd position of both calling Rasmus a sleeper but trying to guard against a fair amount of hype that thinks he can be a top 20 performer.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Drew Stubbs

Drew Stubbs – Current ADP 156; 42nd OF – My Rank: 41st hitter; 17th OF

Let me start with a caveat: the batting average risk with Stubbs should knock him down your board a bit in roto leagues – however I’d still be comfortable taking him in the top 100 picks.

Meanwhile, in h2h, he should go near the top 40. Given his ADP, I think Stubbs is as close any player will come to matching the return on investment Carlos Gonzalez gave owners last year (and remember I called CarGo an 8th rounder last year).

You know the good with Stubbs – the ability to combine power and speed in a wayx that made Grady Sizemore look like a god (until they smote him). The bad from 2010 was an escalating K-rate – he struck out 32.7% of the time. He also swung at balls outside of the zone more often, made less contact with balls thrown inside the zone and traded line drives (down six percent) for fly balls (up four percent).

I think his K-rate can come down a good margin – it was 27% in 196 plate appearances in 2009 and never that close to 32% in the minors. Consequently, I can see his average inching up ever-so-slightly – he’ll probably hit a bit over .260. However, if he keeps trading line drives for fly balls, he has no average upside – but who cares? Everyone digs the long ball!

He could, legitimately, go 20-40, or 20-50. I think the floor is 20-30 (which he did last season). At only 26, Stubbs sure seems to have a bright future ahead of him. Given his ballpark and batting mates, he has good run/RBIs upside as well.

Quite simply, Stubbs should be the biggest bargain in h2h leagues in 2011.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

__________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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