Posts Tagged ‘joe nathan’

I wrote the Closer Section of @TheFantasyFix Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

The guide and my analysis isnt free, but totally worth the price of admission (like $4.99): http://www.thefantasyfix.com/2012-baseball-draft-guide.html.

I include a nifty closer chart breakdown modeled on Batman and cover Carlos Marmol, Joel Hanrahan, Rafael Betancourt, Sergio Santos, Joe Nathan, Jordan Walden, Addison Reed, Matt Thornton, Grant Balfour, Brian Fuentes, Fautino de los Santos, Javy Guerra, Kenley Jansen, Jim Johnson, Kevin Gregg, Jason Berken, Matt Lindstrom, Brandon Lyon, David Carpenter, Wilton Lopez, Anuery Rodriguez, Wesley Wright, Sean Marshall, Vinnie Pestano, Chris Perez, Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Andrew Bailey, Mark Melancon and much more!

Lock, Stock and Taking Stock, Part 3 for Razzball

Lock, Stock and Taking Stock, Part 3

http://razzball.com/lock-stock-and-taking-stock-part-3/

 

 

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before the Season Even Starts: Joe Nathan

Joe Nathan – Current ADP 210 – My Rank: 75th pitcher; 15th RP

Joe Nathan did the fantasy community a good turn by getting injured before most drafts took place in 2010. Indeed this made him somewhat of a bargain in keeper/dynasty leagues. I was able to snag him late in my long-term keeper league and, subsequently, can keep him very late in 2011’s draft. Obviously this makes my decision on him simple.

However, what to do with a previous lock stock and two smoking barrels top three closer for the past several years? Really, it’s all about health. According to John Shipley with the Pioneer-Press, Nathan’s most recent (and first in almost a year) bullpen session “couldn’t have gone better.” In an age where everyone who reports to spring training is skinnier and in the best shape of their lives, we can only take this with a grain of salt.

However, someone we can trust to give great candid thoughts on injuries is Will Carroll of SI.com. I reached out to him via Twitter (you can follow him here) and e-mail, and he wrote:

“Nathan, like any pitcher coming back from elbow reconstruction, is 95% likely to come back to their previous level by the 12 month period. That’s where Nathan is – or will be by opening day, which is what the Twins really care about. Billy Wagner is the easy comparison on age and role, but it’s also a pretty valid one. There’s no reason to think that Nathan won’t be what he used to be at this stage.”

So, all signs point to Nathan being healthy – and lets remember what I said about Wagner last year. In his last three healthy seasons, Nathan has averaged 41 saves, a 1.77 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 80 Ks. Those are clearly #1 closer numbers. Monitor his health diligently this spring – if all signs are clear, he could easily be worth drafting 100+ spots higher than his current ADP.

When your draft comes around don’t wait for Nathan’s name to come up on your ticker – be sure to have him queued up as he will be a top five closer and you should draft accordingly. My ranking is entirely a result of being published in early January and not knowing much about his health.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discreetly of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Nathan takes a ride on the closer carousel

I don’t think anyone would have bet that Joe Nathan would be the first closer to pay his quarter to ride the carousel. But Nathan is done for the year, and Roby Neyer does a good job elucidating on the Twins bull pen options. Continue reading

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