It seems fate has brought me Adam Dunn. He has always been one of my favorite players, even though I’m more of a Ricky Henderson type in build (feel free to laugh). Now, as I sit in Washington D.C. and typically turn down tickets to watch the Nationals, I have a reason to go. More important to me and you than my ballpark habits though is the effect this will have on Adam Dunn, fantasy player.
I think we have to knock his run potential down to the 80 range immediately. He is likely to hit in the 3-5 range behind Milledge, Dukes, and Zimmerman. There are just not that many hitters on the Nats that will have a high batting average. The only hitter to bat over .300 in a reasonable number of at bats was Christian Guzman, while Ryan Zimmerman hit .283 and Milledge hit .268. Those likely to hit behind Dunn (Jesus Flores, Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena?) didn’t hit higher than .256. Still, the Nationals are a somewhat exciting team at the top of their lineup. Milledge had a .330 OBP and Dukes had a .386, so there will be runners on base for Dunn. I don’t think he loses much in the RBI projection – 100 seems wholly reasonable. I still think he hits around 40 home runs, but he isn’t as much of a lock as he was before. I do say he is a lock for 35.
So you have to downgrade Dunn in your OF and first base ranks somewhat. I think a line of 80-35-100-.250 is reasonable, with some upside on the HRs and RBIs. Still he will bring some good consistent power value in the 5-8 round range.