h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before the Season Even Starts VI

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discreetly of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Jorge de la Rosa – Current ADP 193 – if you’ve read me recently, you know I like Jorge de la Rosa. Why? Simple: I think Jorge De La Rosa can be a very productive player for you. You’d be shocked if I told you that he had the 16th most strikeouts last year, right? Well he did. In fact he struck out 193 batters in only 185 IPs, which provides a sterling K/IP ratio. Sure his ERA (4.38) is a bit high and his WHIP (1.38) isn’t great, but you can live with those numbers when the pitcher is K-ing a batter an inning. I like him even more now that he is lasting to the 20th round or so. I’m taking him over Gavin Floyd, Scott Kazmir, Carlos Zambrano, Edwin Jackson, and others. A pitchers outing might change from week to week in terms of ratios, but a good K pitcher likely continues to set-em-up and break-em-down.

David Price – Current ADP 178 — Price only got 128.1 IPs under his belt in 2009. He also posted a non-earth shattering line: 4.42 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 102 Ks (7.2 Ks/9). Price should be able to improve on these ratios, while maintaining a decent K rate (it was 9 K/9 in the minors). I could see a 3.90 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 7/9 K-rate in 2010 for him. He is a pretty interesting upside pick over guys like Edwin Jackson, Carlos Zambrano, Scott Baker, Jair Jurrjens and Jake Peavy. Be wary of the post-hype sleeper. While Price isn’t overly cheap, I wouldn’t mind grabbing him in the 150 pick range.

Matt Garza – Current ADP 123 – Speaking of the Rays and young pitching, here is Matt Garza. Garza is only 26 years old, but already has 520 major league innings under his belt. In his last three seasons, he hasn’t had an ERA over 4.00 and has averaged a 1.30 WHIP and 7.3 K/9 rate. He pitched very well last year, racking up 183 Ks and a 1.26 WHIP and seems to be entering his prime on the right foot. It’s possible we could see a continued increase in strike-outs (he struck out 10 per nine IPs in the minors) and ratios. I would happily snag Garza over the likes of Jake Peavy, Matt Cain, Tommy Hanson, Chad Billingsley, James Shields and others. He is a great pick in double digit rounds.

Randy Wolf – Current ADP 193 – Wolf is a seasoned veteran at this point. Over the last three years he has posted a 3.94 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, while averaging 139 Ks a season (7.4/9 IPs). Sure he had a somewhat lucky season in 2009 with a BAbip in the .250s. However, that doesn’t destroy the fact that he’ll give you an ERA around 4.10, WHIP around 1.30 and 160 Ks. I think he is a better selection than Gavin Floyd, Scott Kazmir, Dice-K, Rick Porcello, Edwin Jackson, Carlos Zambrano, John Danks, and others. Reliability and pitching don’t generally mix. So when you have a reasonable understanding of what a player might do, it’s worth a few extra rounds. Wolf seems like a fine selection around the 170s.

FB101’s 411: The Rays have great young, undervalued pitching. National League southpaws who K batters are extremely useful.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner)/Facebook pages.

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discreetly of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Jorge de la Rosa – Current ADP 193 – if you’ve read me recently, you know I like Jorge de la Rosa. Why? Simple: I think Jorge De La Rosa can be a very productive player for you. You’d be shocked if I told you that he had the 16th most strikeouts last year, right? Well he did. In fact he struck out 193 batters in only 185 IPs, which provides a sterling K/IP ratio. Sure his ERA (4.38) is a bit high and his WHIP (1.38) isn’t great, but you can live with those numbers when the pitcher is K-ing a batter an inning. I like him even more now that he is lasting to the 20th round or so. I’m taking him over Gavin Floyd, Scott Kazmir, Carlos Zambrano, Edwin Jackson, and others. A pitchers outing might change from week to week in terms of ratios, but a good K pitcher likely continues to set-em-up and break-em-down.

David Price – Current ADP 178 — Price only got 128.1 IPs under his belt in 2009. He also posted a non-earth shattering line: 4.42 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 102 Ks (7.2 Ks/9). Price should be able to improve on these ratios, while maintaining a decent K rate (it was 9 K/9 in the minors). I could see a 3.90 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 7/9 K-rate in 2010 for him. He is a pretty interesting upside pick over guys like Edwin Jackson, Carlos Zambrano, Scott Baker, Jair Jurrjens and Jake Peavy. Be wary of the post-hype sleeper. While Price isn’t overly cheap, I wouldn’t mind grabbing him in the 150 pick range.

Matt Garza – Current ADP 123 – Speaking of the Rays and young pitching, here is Matt Garza. Garza is only 26 years old, but already has 520 major league innings under his belt. In his last three seasons, he hasn’t had an ERA over 4.00 and has averaged a 1.30 WHIP and 7.3 K/9 rate. He pitched very well last year, racking up 183 Ks and a 1.26 WHIP and seems to be entering his prime on the right foot. It’s possible we could see a continued increase in strike-outs (he struck out 10 per nine IPs in the minors) and ratios. I would happily snag Garza over the likes of Jake Peavy, Matt Cain, Tommy Hanson, Chad Billingsley, James Shields and others. He is a great pick in double digit rounds.

Randy Wolf – Current ADP 193 – Wolf is a seasoned veteran at this point. Over the last three years he has posted a 3.94 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, while averaging 139 Ks a season (7.4/9 IPs). Sure he had a somewhat lucky season in 2009 with a BAbip in the .250s. However, that doesn’t destroy the fact that he’ll give you an ERA around 4.10, WHIP around 1.30 and 160 Ks. I think he is a better selection than Gavin Floyd, Scott Kazmir, Dice-K, Rick Porcello, Edwin Jackson, Carlos Zambrano, John Danks, and others. Reliability and pitching don’t generally mix. So when you have a reasonable understanding of what a player might do, it’s worth a few extra rounds. Wolf seems like a fine selection around the 170s.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner)/Facebook pages.

One response to this post.

  1. […] – Clearly, I have no idea what to say about Garza. I really thought he was going to break out last year and early signs pointed to that happening – however it never clicked. Now, in the National […]

    Reply

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