h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before the Season Even Starts VII

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discreetly of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

David Ortiz – Current ADP 191 – I’ll be the first to admit that Big Papi has lost a step, but he’s being drafted like he requires a walker to get from home to first. Sure, a .238 average does no one any favors. However, his career BAbip is .300, while last year it was .262. So he’ll clearly improve on that .238 number to get into .260 – .270 range. Ortiz also had a disastrous start before picking it up down the stretch. Ortiz hit the 32nd most HRs last year in the majors and knocked in the 29th most runs. I think he can resume being a top 100 or so batter next year. I wouldn’t mind grabbing him over the likes of Paul Konerko, Todd Helton, Juan Rivera, Adam LaRoche, Corey Hart, Vernon Wells, Adrian Beltre, James Loney, Garrett Jones, Chris Davis, and others. I’d have no problem grabbing Papi 70+ picks higher than where he is going.

Nyjer Morgan – Current ADP 127 – It is pretty clear that, if Morgan can get on base, he will steal a ton of bags. I think his 2009 42 stolen bases total is the floor for him. When Morgan joined the Nationals, he stole 24 bases in just 49 games. That is crazy. Of course this was helped by him hitting .351 and posting a .396 OBP – those numbers will not be matched. However, he does have a career .362 OBP in the majors and .370 in the minors. So he can get on base. And when he does, the Nats are going to let him run. He might be able to push Ellsbury for the MLB stolen base crown. So why is he going nearly 30 picks after Michael Bourn? Very confusing, I’d rather have Morgan than Alex Rios, Jason Kubel, Brad Hawpe, Carlos Beltran, Alfonso Soriano, and others. He’s a pretty solid SB pick.

Denard Span – Current ADP 121 – I’m not sure why people seem to be ignoring the 26-year-old Span. Span, flat-out, gets on base (.390 OBP over his career) and he does so in front of Cuddyer, Mauer, Morneau and Kubel. He scored 97 runs last year and could easily surpass 100 in 2010. He’ll also run a bit and should get you around 20 SBs. He’ll never really hit many HRs, but could be a 100 run scorer, 10 HR hitter and 20 SBer with great ratios. That’s incredibly useful. In fact, I’ll posit that it is more useful than Alex Rios, Jason Kubel, Brad Hawpe, Carlos Quentin, Carlos Beltran, Alfonso Soriano, Josh Hamilton, and others.

Chone Figgins – Current ADP 83 – Figgins, who might regain second base eligibility, is currently projected to go in the eighth round of most drafts. That’s crazy to me. Sure he doesn’t have power and third base is typically a power position, but who cares? Power abounds. Figgins has been an incredibly consistent fantasy performer – over the last five seasons, he has averaged 46 stolen bases, with 34 being the low mark two seasons ago. That’s an impressive stat line from any position, and it sets him apart from those ranked around him. For someone who will score 100 runs, hit around .300 and post a .380 OBP, that eighth round is entirely too low. I’d be selecting him over the likes of Alfonso Soriano, Bobby Abreu, Carlos Pena, Shane Victorino, Aramis Ramirez, Lance Berkman, Pablo Sandoval and others. I’d be happy grabbing Figgins in the third round, but it appears we can wait a bit and get a stud third basemen/corner infielder.

FB 101’s 411: Speed never slumps, Span, Figgins, and Morgan are worth at least two more rounds than they are currently valued at. Oh, and David Ortiz isn’t done.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner)/Facebook pages.

2 responses to this post.

  1. Speed never slumps – THE TRUTH

    Reply

  2. Posted by Albert Lang on March 12, 2010 at 10:45 pm

    Let’s be honest, speed can slump if you cant get on base — you cant steal first, Wily……no matter what Dusty thinks

    Reply

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