h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a weeks period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

“It’s black and it’s white”

While I typically agree with anything Katy Perry says/does, I have to make way for a shade of gray in fantasy baseball leagues. Below you will find analysis on the hottest of the hot and coldest of the cold. Some of the hots are just one-week oneders, while others deserve consideration in deeper leagues or as match-up plays. Most of the coldest of colds are here for a one-week blip in an otherwise storybook season, while a few are perennial offenders who should be watched as carefully as crazy Claire.

‘Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Casey McGehee – McGehee, since playing full time in mid-2009, has done nothing but hit. Last week was no exception (.455 AVE, five runs, two HRs, eight RBIs). Only 76 percent owned, he has seen ownership numbers skyrocket over the past few weeks. He clearly won’t continue to hit .396, but could be a .300 hitter like he was last season (although he hit .279 in the minors). McGehee, who is just hitting his prime (27 years old), could be a 20+ HR hitter this year.

Ty WiggintonWiggy had a similarly dominating previous week (six runs, three HRs, eight RBIs, and a .304 AVE). However, he is not really assured of playing time. He’ll get ABs while Miguel Tejada and Brian Roberts are out and could see time at first base. However, look at Wiggy as a short term play. If you can trade him for anything, by all means go for it. He has probably played his best week.

Ivan Rodriguez – The fountain of something has sprung eternal all over Ivan Rodriguez. He hit .462 and added seven runs and six stolen bases in the past week. The Hall of Famer is 38 and hasn’t hit over .300 since 2004. He has been a nice find for those struggling with catcher issues (Miguel Montero and Mike Napoli most notably), but I’d rather have Napoli or Chris Snyder for the future.

Alberto Callaspo – Callaspo turned in a tidy last week (two HRs, seven RBIs and a .360 AVE). Don’t expect the power to continue (he hit 11 last year in 634 plate appearances and never more than 11 in a minor league season). Still, he’ll hit for a decent average (.286 for his career) and won’t hurt you. You could do worse at middle infield.

Chase Headley – As someone who drafted Headley in his long-term keeper league a few years ago, subsequently dropped him and is playing against me this week, I’m a little annoyed. Over the last week, Headley has stolen four bases, scored four runs and knocked in five. Headley, only 26, seems to be hitting his prime this season and could provide a .270 AVE, 15 – 20 HRs and double digit steals (he swiped 10 bags last season). I’d rather be betting on Headley (only 57% owned) than Adrian Beltre.

Jose Bautista – Bautista crushed the ball last week (two HRs, seven RBIs). When Edwin Encarnacion returns, Bautista will shift to the outfield and retain playing time (Fred Lewis will go to the bench). Still, Bautista hasn’t been a useful player (except for 2007 – 75 runs, 15 HRs and a .254 AVE). Aside from 2007, his average has never been above .238. I wouldn’t be buying Bautista.

Juan Uribe Left for dead two years ago, Uribe has come back with a vengeance. In 122 games last season, Uribe managed a .289 AVE and 16 HRs. In the last week, Uribe hit .286 with two round trippers. Uribe should qualify at every infield position except first base and could provide a nice source of power. I’d ride him until his batting average takes a dip.

Mike Pelfrey – The 40% owned Pelfrey turned in a stellar last seven days (15 IPs, two wins, one save, 12 Ks and a 0.00/0.87 ERA/WHIP). It doesn’t get any better than that. Pelfrey is certainly gaining maturity, has a favorable home ballpark and his K-rate (6.9) has blossomed over his career (5.2) norm. This rate has moved closer to his AAA number of 6.8. I’d be buying Pelfrey at the moment. He should be owned almost universally.

Jason Vargas – Last week, Vargas got two starts (against the Orioles and Athletics, neither of which can hit anything). Still, he didn’t disappoint: 13 IPs, 11 Ks, 2.08 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. Vargas, a former second round pick, is 27 years old, but doesn’t have all that much major league experience (237 IPs over five seasons). Still, last year he did post a usable WHIP (1.33). At this point, Vargas looks match-ups worthy.

Livan Hernandez – Livan and Ivan must have gotten together on some rejuvenation machine. In the last week, Livan pitched a complete game, no-run effort. Still, he only struck out three batters and walked two. On the season, he has Ked four batters and walked five – not a real sustainable approach. Furthermore, batters are only hitting .173 on balls in play against Livan – something even more unsustainable (unless he has superman playing short). In short, trust Livan at your own peril. I wouldn’t feel comfortable starting him in an NL-only league unless it was against the Astros.

Carlos Silva – For the time being, Silva is finding the grass much greener on the NL side of the fence. Last week, he threw a gem against Houston (seven IPs, five Ks, no runs, and 0.71 WHIP). However that was the Astros, so let’s temper expectations. Like Livan, he’s been pretty lucky (.205 BAbip), so I wouldn’t be putting any faith in continued useful performances.

Then you’re cold…then you’re no…then you’re out…then you’re down

Nick Swisher – Yowser, Swisher hit a paltry .091 (2/22) last week, but did manage all of one run and three RBIs – so there’s that. This piled onto a not great start to the season, which has people concerned. Still, it’s only been a handful of weeks and his OBP is .340. Swisher will be fine and way more valuable in OBP leagues than AVE leagues. I’d be dealing for Swisher in leagues (especially OBP ones) as he’ll hit 25+ HRs this year.

Adam Jones – So far the birdman has not cometh at all this season. Last week, Jones scored one run, posted one RBI and hit .200. Still, I’m preaching patience, especially with a young guy like Jones who is on a struggling team. Jones, who has a career BAbip of .314, is only hitting .260 on balls in play this year. He’ll come around and hit near .270 with 20 or so HRs and ten steals.

Adrian Beltre – Beltre, much like the majority of his teammates, did not produce much last week (.200 AVE, one run). He’s had a decent start to the season, hitting .286, but this might be the high-watermark of his average all season. I didn’t trust him before the season for 10- and 12-team mixed leagues and nothing he has done so far has changed that opinion.

Carlos Lee – I have Carlos Lee on my HR-team. Let’s just say I’m not happy. Last week, he hit .120 and scored two runs. That’s all. Still, Lee has never been a strong out of the gate horse (.256 AVE, .318 OBP and .467 SLG in March/April), so expect him to improve as the weather heats up. It certainly won’t hurt to have Lance Berkman back. I’m not too worried about Lee and would be buying him

David Ortiz – All Ortiz managed to do for teams in the last week is hurt them in batting average (he added no counting stats to his .158 effort). Still, I’m not throwing him overboard. He is a career .300 hitter on balls in play, in 2010, just .250. He also started miserably last year, only to rebound to hit 28 HRs and 99 RBIs. You should definitely bench Ortiz and he is droppable in 10-team mixed, but in deeper leagues, you should hang on. He’ll get his mojo back.

Raul Ibanez – I also have Raul Ibanez on my HR team – how well do you think I am doing? Ibanez hit .125 last week, which lowered his season average to .186. While he hasn’t hit a long ball, he does have three doubles. You’ve got to give him a bit of rope given his prodigious production last year. It takes awhile to get over injuries. Still, if he is performing like this in a few weeks, it might be time to cut bait.

Garrett Jones – Jones didn’t do much for teams last week (.067 AVE, one run and two RBIs). In addition, he played over his head last year (.298 AVE) as he hit .258 in the minors. He’ll hit better, but don’t expect him to be a .300 hitter. Right now, he looks like a decent fourth outfielder in 12-team mixed leagues – not much more.

Rick Porcello – It’s never good when your two-start pitcher lasts only 10.1 IPs. That was the case for Porcello over the last week. He posted a 7.84 ERA and 1.94 WHIP. Still, he managed to strike-out seven batters, which is actually a promising sign. In 2010, his K/9 rate is up to 5.9 which can work in the Bigs. You’ll have to give him a little rope this year, and those starts against Kansas City and Cleveland sure look nice.

John Lackey – Lackey managed to do more damage in less innings (10) than Porcello. Lackey’s ERA (9.00), WHIP (2.10) and lack of Ks (just five) were pretty damaging. Still he did salvage a win. Further, Lackey’s bad week was really the result of a horrendous start against Tampa Bay. Every pitcher will have a disastrous turn throughout the season, just be happy Lackey’s is over with.

Gavin Floyd – Floyd had a disastrous one-inning start (seven runs) against the typically woeful Indians. Further, he hasn’t been off to a good start. However, this should not be surprising. Floyd is typically an incredibly slow starter. He posts horrible ratios in March/April, does slightly better (albeit not great) in May, then kills it the rest of the season. If you can buy low, go ahead. I wouldn’t start him this month and be careful of him on the road (career 5.13 ERA and 1.64 WHIP), but he’ll be useful when summer comes around.

Jon Lester – Lester hasn’t been good this year or last week. Still, he’s been fairly unlucky (.365 BAbip) and hasn’t usually started seasons quickly in the past (5.46 ERA, 1.60 WHIP in March/April). I’m not scared of Lester for the rest of the season. I believe he has his worst starts behind him. Feel confident trading for him, if you can.

Dan Haren – While Haren struck out 15 batters last week, he likely hurt your ratios big time (12.1 IP, 6.57 ERA and 1.54 WHIP). Still, last week’s mark was overshadowed by three home runs (and seven total runs) allowed against St. Louis in just six innings. Haren has allowed one HR per nine innings in his career, a number he should have no problem replicating. No need to panic.

All stats as of April 21.

FB101’s 411: Be sure you know how to judge a hot streak. McGehee, Headley, Pelfrey, make good adds. You are allowed to give up on Ortiz and Beltre.

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One response to this post.

  1. […] Swisher – Swisher was, just seven days ago, in Katy’s doghouse. Now he’s batting clean-up for her All-stars. Still that didn’t stop me from telling people to […]

    Reply

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