h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

As most of you know, Katy Perry is set to wed funny man Russell Brand. Oh you didn’t know that? Well consider this your schooling for the day.

Well, Mr. Brand has some demands on his future wife, most notably that she learn how to cook. As Maria-Mercedes Lara points out, what does Mr. Brand expect when he marries a woman who is known for her rack and a song about girl-on-girl action?

This leads me to school of fantasy/Katy point #II. What do you really expect from one-week wonders? The worst thing you can do in fantasy baseball is make a rash reaction. This isn’t fantasy football where you might as well flip a coin on a decision. There are trends, historical barometers, and of course sample sizes.

And, as I wrote, that’s why Katy created this weekly All-star list. Now, if only she can learn to cook.

Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Edwin Encarnacion – While Edwin has been stroking it (a vague Russell Brand reference!) since he came off the DL, he has been even better over the last seven days: .368 average, five HRs and 10 RBIs. I did a piece specifically on the amazing Blue Jays offense which talked about Encarnacion a good deal. It’s safe to say I like the streaky third baseman. The only concern is what happens when Travis Snider comes back. He could lose some playing time, but not if he continues to hit like this. I’m adding him in most competitive leagues.

Mike Sweeney – Apparently someone should have complained to the press about Ken Griffey sleeping in the clubhouse sooner. Since that happened, Sweeney(Todd) has been on a tear. Over the last seven days, he hit .600(!) and added three HRs. Unlike Encarnacion, I’m not buying Sweeney. He has a .500 BAbip over the last seven days and a .381 BAbip over the last 14. He’ll come crashing back to earth.

Laynce Nix – Apparently, I’m not as well read as I thought as I told people to pick up Laynce Nix last week, yet he is still just one percent owned in Yahoo! leagues. He has made a repeat entrance on KP’s All-Stars thanks to blasting two HRs and batting .333 over the last seven days. Playing time remains an issue, but he is a solid add in deep leagues and NL-only.

Mark Kotsay – Mark Kotsay, DH, should be the only evidence you need of why the White Sox are stinking up the joint. However, Kotsay has come to life lately. Over the last seven days, he hit two HRs and batted .308. He has been better over the last month as well (four HRs and a .254 AVG). He has a pretty low BAbip (.188) this year compared to his career (.298), so he is actually a good buy in deeper and NL-only leagues.

Orlando Cabrera – Cabrera had himself a healthy last seven days (.333 AVG and three SBs). He is getting back to what makes him a useful middle infielder – the steals. On the season he has seven, so 20 should be no problem. He also (typically) hits atop a pretty potent NL line-up, so the runs could be there. I’d be scooping him up in 12-team leagues and deeper.

Adam Rosales – I don’t know how to pronounce his last name, but I bet it’s purty. What I do know is that he had a pretty last seven days (six runs and a .389 AVG). He qualifies at every infield position except shortstop (but has started there once) and makes a very good AL-only add. He is capable of providing a good average, but not much else. Still, that’s not useless.

Luke Hochevar – I don’t know what to do with Hochevar. He doesn’t get to pitch against the Royals and he has a 4.95 ERA, but he throws gems from time to time. Over the last seven days, he threw eight innings and posted a 2.25 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. I still don’t trust him as anything more than a match-ups play in an AL-only league, but he does have the pedigree to be a useful fantasy starter. Right now, keep your eye on him in mixed leagues.

Trevor Cahill – Cahill is the kind of pitcher I tend to shy away from as he doesn’t strike anyone out (just 17 Ks in 35.1 IPs). However, I think he has pitched himself into being useful in 10-team leagues. Last week he went 12.2 IPs, got two wins, struck out seven and posted a 1.42 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He is sporting a pretty favorable BAbip (.213 on the season, .063 over the last seven days and .186 over the last 14), so don’t go out and trade the farm for him. But, I still think he’ll be useful in most mixed leagues.

Then you’re cold…then you’re no…then you’re out…then you’re down

John Lackey – Man, John Lackey must be happy with his contract, but he can’t be a fan of that division. Over his last two starts (against Tampa and Philadelphia), he pitched 11.1 IPs, and only struck out four batters. What’s worse? He posted a 4.76 ERA and 2.03 WHIP. That ERA actually brought his season’s ERA down! At this point, you need to manage Lackey carefully. Run him out there against the weak hitting squads (Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland, Baltimore), but avoid the rest of the AL East. I’d also think about sitting him at home (his career ERA at Fenway = 5.67)

Wade Davis – Davis is coming off a 3.2 inning outing last week, in which posted a 12.27 ERA and 2.73 WHIP. For the season, he has a usable 4.01 ERA, but his WHIP is 1.48. Like with any pitcher, let alone a youngster, there will be rough patches. However, Tampa is in it to win it and hot prospect Jeremy Hellickson is killing it in the minors. Davis might not be long for the rotation. You can’t drop him, but trading him might be a good idea.

Tim Lincecum – This is the first time Lincecum (the man who launched a thousand fantasy baseball team names) made Katy’s All-stars. It also kind of speaks for why I won’t draft pitching early. Lincecum’s week was horrific as he lasted just 4.2 innings and posted an 11.57 ERA and 2.36 WHIP. Sure, this is probably a blip on the radar (although there is mention of blisters), but it goes to show that you can’t always trust a pitcher.

Brett Gardner – Gardner came crashing back to earth (in AVG/OBP terms) over the last week (.125 AVG). His inflated BAbip from earlier in the season primed him for a bit of a fall at some point in May. Still, I don’t think you have to worry about him. His average will likely come down to the .270 range, but he’ll continue to steal bases and score runs. Great job drafting him, I’m disappointed I believed in Nyjer Morgan as much as I did.

Carlos Lee – Is Carlos Lee droppable in a 10-team league? That’s a question I was asked recently. I don’t think it’s crazy, either, given the amount of outfield depth in most free agent pools. I certainly don’t think a lot of people would use a waiver priority on him were he to be cut. His last week did no favors (.211 AVG and just three RBIs). Still, he has been better over the last month (.212 AVG and five HRs). In addition, he has been pretty unlucky (.201 BAbip on the season and .179 over the last 28 days compared to a career .288 BAbip). Basically, you can drop him in a league with lots of outfield waiver talent (but don’t forget about him). I think Carlos Lee will pick it up over the balance of the year –I certainly wouldn’t be cutting him or selling low in NL-only leagues.

All stats as of May 28.

FB101’s 411: Be sure you know how to judge a hot streak. Edwin Encarnacion, Trevor Cahill and Orlando Cabrera make good adds. Keep your eye on Nix, Kotsay, Rosales and Hochevar. You are allowed to sort of give up on John Lackey and Carlos Lee.

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4 responses to this post.

  1. Posted by George Mueller on May 29, 2010 at 8:00 am

    Interesting comments on Lincecum. I’m sure it is a blip on the radar as all good SP have them. Look at Halladay. No wins in last three outings. Still I’d rather have both of the above mentioned SPs for the long haul, especially in ROTO leagues.
    Although I agree with your drafting SP too early philosophy, I think it depends on how your league is constructed and your drafting position. In my 10 team H2H league, 10 of the first 20 picks were starting pitchers, as the league is pitcher heavy in statistical categories. Since I was stuck with the 10th pick overall, I drafted two SPs in my first 4 picks. The drop off for each 18 picks in between my two picks is severe.

    Reply

  2. Posted by Albert Lang on May 29, 2010 at 8:09 am

    I agree definitely just a blip for Lincecum – but that blip could have cost people in h2h leagues tremendously. That’s why i’d rather have a good quantity of (above) average pitchers than a few elite ones in normal 5×5 h2h leagues. In addition, i heard over twitter (cant find the link) that Bochey was not happy with Tim’s effort, for what that’s worth.

    You are right on that Roto is a different bag, it is incredibly beneficial to have one stud (think top 10) pitcher. So Lincecum is clearly more valuable in that format, in my opinion.

    Yeah 10 pitchers of the top 20 is crazy — what were the categories on that?

    Reply

  3. Posted by Albert Lang on May 29, 2010 at 8:10 am

    Thanks for the comments as always — enjoy Memorial day!

    Reply

  4. Posted by George Mueller on June 1, 2010 at 8:24 am

    Albert,
    Actually after a more careful look the pitching categories in my H2H league are pretty much standard. All pitchers not receiving negative points for hits and RPs get a point for each appearance are probably the only differences. However, after 5 starters on your active roster, the 6 reserve spots are almost exclusively SPs. Since we have daily line up changes it is not uncommon to have 10-15 starts a week. That’s where the pitching heavy stats come into play.

    Reply

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