h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars. This column helps you react (not overreact) to recent hot and cold streaks. Which are for real? Which aren’t? Read along?

Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Bill Hall – I use to love Bill Hall – he qualified everywhere and had some nice pop. This was, of course, before he started sucking in 2007-ish. Well, he certainly evoked images of the golden 2006 season last week with eight runs, one dinger, two SBs and a .636 average. Will he ever have a week like that again? Probably not. However, his average is hovering in the useful .250 area (which is around his career mark). While the Sox outfield continues to be riddled with injuries, Hall makes a good add in AL-only and deeper leagues.

Chris Coghlan – Coghlan has seen his ownership levels plummet to 40% recently. However, he is really starting to heat up. Over the last seven days, he hit .444 with six runs and two SBs. Since May 23, Coghlan has raised his batter average from .210 to .249. If you need some runs, SBs and a decent average, you should be grabbing Coghlan in almost all leagues.

Lyle Overbay – When I did my review of the juggernaut Blue Jays offense, I mentioned that Overbay was ripe for improvement. Well, over the last seven days, he belted three HRs and hit .455. He remains a useful cheap first base option in deeper leagues. He could really score 80 runs, hit 18 HRs and knock in 80 this year. That’s not too shabby.

Fred Lewis – Batting atop the powerful Blue Jays offense, Lewis scored seven runs, stole a base and hit .478 over the last seven days. He is only nine percent owned, yet should be gobbled up in all deep and AL-only leagues. Those in 12-team leagues should be thinking about adding him and he should be on the radar of folks in 10-teams. He could score 70 MORE runs this season.

Nick Hundley – I had so many Todd Hundley rookie cards as a kid and he pretty much stunk up the joint until 1995. Then he had three or so productive years and ended up with 202 career HRs. That’s crazy. Well, last week Nick Hundley did his best Todd Hundley impression, he hit .529 and added one HR and seven RBIs. Nick has nowhere near the power that Todd possessed, however, he aint worthless in deeper leagues. In two-catcher leagues or NL-only, I am scooping him up.

Mark Ellis – Infected by the not-able-to-stay-healthy Oakland curse, people have forgotten about the usefulness of a middle infielder with some HR-upside. Last week, Ellis hit one HR, knocked in seven and batted .500. His 162-game average line includes 15 HRs. If he could stay healthy, he could be a very cheap source of pop from the middle of the diamond. Add with confidence in deep leagues.

Armando Galarraga – How could I not talk about the guy who pitched a semi-perfect game? He pitched 10.2 IPs over the last seven days, got a win, struck out three, didn’t allow a run and posted a miniscule 0.19 WHIP. In 2008, Galarraga was incredibly useful and lucky. He hasn’t been either since. However, this year, he is posting the best walk:K rate of his career (2.75). In his best season, it was 2.07. He is certainly not going to continue his ratio pace, but he does make for speculative additions in deeper leagues. I scooped him up in my AL-only league a few weeks ago and have been heavily rewarded. Still, he is just a match-ups type – don’t run him out there against elite offenses.

Freddy Garcia – Freddy Garcia put together a very useful two start seven-day stretch: 14 IPs, one win, 11 Ks, a 2.57 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Still, I’m not buying any sort of resurgence. His walk:K rate is just 1.67 – he isn’t striking anyone out. He might be a spot starter in AL-only leagues, but that’s about it for me.

Kyle Kendrick – Kendrick also pitched two good turns over the last seven days: 12 IPs, one win, a 0.69 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. However, don’t go thinking that he is back to his 2007 form. He really isn’t striking anyone out (3.9 K/9 rate) and is not posting near the walk rate (2.7 this year) that he did during his breakout 2007 campaign (1.9). He might show a slight improvement on his 2008 season, but not enough to where he makes a useful add.

Then you’re cold…then you’re no…then you’re out…then you’re down

Stephen Drew – Drew didn’t put up a pleasant line over the last seven days: .091 AVG and no counting stats. However, he is still on pace to score nearly 90 runs, hit 12 HRs and knock-in 60. He also has a useful .284 AVG. Basically, last week, he was just crazy unlucky as he posted a .133 BAbip. He’ll be fine.

Jayson Werth – Werth is indeed human. He showed the signs over the last seven days: one RBI and a .133 AVG. Still, you can’t say he was overly unlucky, as he did post a .288 BAbip. The problem is that he stuck out 10 times. Furthermore, he has carried a .358 BAbip for this season compared to his career mark of .329. So there was some regression coming. While he hasn’t had that great of a last month, he’ll still perform well. He likely won’t be a .300 hitter, but there is nothing wrong with batting .270.

Mark Reynolds — Now, if Mark Reynolds could bat .270, he’d be the best player in the game. Unfortunately, last week was a bad one for the slugger: .133 AVG and no counting stats. He has also been battling an injury, but will likely miss the DL. Reynolds is exactly who we thought he was, a guy with great power and counting stats ability who will hurt you in ratios.

Matt Wieters – The Orioles are in a massive funk. Wieters is clearly not immune to it. Over the last seven days, he went 0/14. In smaller leagues (10- and 12-teamers), I think you can drop him. However, keep your eye on him as this recent slump is more to do with bad luck (.000 BAbip over the last seven days, .182 BAbip over the last 14, and a .259 BAbip over the last 28 days). He’ll pick it up over the summer and be a useful addition. In deep leagues, I think he is a decent buy low.

John Danks – Remember on April 30, when I told you to sell high on John Danks? Nope, well I got the link. At that time, he had three wins, a 1.55 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9. Right now, he has four wins, a 3.34 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9. He has no fallen in line with his career numbers, which means there will be some outings like the last seven days (four IPs, two Ks, 18.00 ERA and 2.75 WHIP). That is why I always advocate selling pitchers who are out-producing their historical norms.

Jeff Francis – Francis did no one any favors with his two starts (11 IPs, five Ks, a 7.36 ERA and 1.36 WHP). The damage came at the hands of the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers. Really, Francis is only a deep league match-ups play.

Wandy Rodriguez – Last week WandyRod stuck out an impressive 13 batters in 8.1 IPs. Unfortunately he also posted a 9.72 ERA and 2.16 WHIP. Really the damage came from an away start at Cincinnati. For the year, he is pitching much better at home (8.7 K/9 rate) than away (4.7 K/9 rate). I would never start Wandy on the road. I would only start him at home with a favorable match-up. Still, there is some upside to this. If he can continue to post a good K/9 rate at home, he’ll get some nice Ks.

Scott Kazmir – I don’t really understand how Scott Kazmir is owned in 38% of Yahoo! leagues. Last week, he pitched 11 IPs, stuck out only three batters and posted a 4.91 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. That ERA lowered his season total! He is really not ownable in many formats. I see him having AL-only value when he plays against the worst hitting teams, but that’s it.

All stats as of June 4.

FB101’s 411: Be sure you know how to judge a hot streak. Chris Coghlan, Lyle Overbay and Fred Lewis make good adds. Keep your eye on Bill Hall, Galarraga, Ellis and Hundley. You are allowed to sort of give up on Scott Kazmir and Jeff Francis – and to a lesser extent Matt Wieters.

h2h_Corner on Twitter

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2 responses to this post.

  1. […] opponents, and almost lights out in the Coliseum. Armando Galarraga: (10% owned) As mentioned on an earlier post here, he’s not exactly Roy Halladay, but he’s certainly worth an auspicious stream here or […]

    Reply

  2. […] – I really like ballplayers with the last name Ellis (see AJ love here, and Mark love here, here, here, etc.). Mark has never been healthy, but the move to Colorado is interesting as it puts him in a […]

    Reply

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