h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before the Season Even Starts: Justin Upton

Justin Upton– Current ADP 38 – My Rank: 20th Hitter; 8th OF

By all Superhuman expectations, Justin Upton.2010 disappointed majorly. Save his strike-out and walk rates, his statistics went down across the board compared to his semi-breakout 2009 campaign. The biggest source of disappointment could be the down HR total – and he did only post a 12.4% HR/FB rate, the lowest of his career and significantly lower than 2009 (18.8%). Still, there was no discernable difference in his 2010 BABip as compared to 2009 or his career – meaning he wasn’t all that unlucky.

So the main question is whether he is on his way to being a Bossman Junior-level tease. I certainly hope not and didn’t rank him as such. For one thing, his 2010 wasn’t all that bad – he hit 17 HRs and stole 18 bases and raised his walk rate. Sure the increased strike-outs are a concern, but in reality his BB/K rate wasn’t all that different from his career mark.

I am confident that Upton’s 2009 will represent his floor for the next decade. If Upton can stay healthy and maintain his walk rate, you’re looking at a player who can hit .285+ with a chance at 20-25 HRs, 18 SBs and a decent amount of runs and RBIs. Of course he also comes with the upside to look a lot like his 2009 self, which gives him a small boost for this year.

In short, Upton was born just 23 years ago; it might take him awhile to get THERE, but the HERE isn’t all that bad. I expect him to be worth his draft price.

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discreetly of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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One response to this post.

  1. […] can’t typically get first round upside that far from the top 15 picks. However Cruz (along with Justin Upton) provide that. If you can steal Cruz in the third round, you should be amply […]

    Reply

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