h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before the Season Even Starts: Mark Reynolds

Mark Reynolds– Current ADP 129 – My Rank: 150th hitter; 22nd 3B

This one via Twitter and my co-host @JoelHenard.

For a devoted Orioles fan, I sure am down on their new acquisition. After posting a massive year in 2009, Reynolds decided to make things harder on himself by becoming the right-handed National League version of Carlos Pena (now Pena is in the NL and Reynolds the AL, odd). While the 32 HRs are not bad (it was the second most by a third basemen), he stole 17 less bases and hit just .198 in 2010.

While his walk rate went up a smidge to a career high at 13.9%, his K-rate somehow found a way to increase about four percent. Basically, 2009 and 2010 were polar opposite seasons:

  • 2009 BABip: .338; 2010: .257
  • 2009 Line Drive percentage: 17.4; 2010: 13.3
  • 2009 Fly Ball percentage: 47.3; 2010: 54.9
  • 2009 HR/FB: 26%; 2010: 19.9%

In short, everything that went into making Reynolds a monster in 2009 turned him into a lamb in 2010.

Thankfully, we can take the middle ground here. I think he is basically a .240 AVG, 35 HRs, 10 SBs player with a .335 OBP and .492 SLG. For what it’s worth, Bill James has him at .233/.337/.490 with 35 HRs and nine SBs.

Clearly he is worth more than a Carlos Pena type given his position and speed – however I do worry about his transition to a tougher league and environment. If he maintains his current ADP, I’m not getting him in any league and I’m ok with that.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discreetly of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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