h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Jair Jurrjens

Jair Jurrjens– Current ADP 173; 50th SP – My Rank: 131st pitcher; 99th SP

I’ve never gotten why people love Jurrjens – is it because his last name reminds people of cleansing silky smooth body wash?

After coming over in the Edgar Renteria trade, Jurrjens has averaged 173 IPs (albeit his 2010 was injury-riddled), a 3.45 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 126 Ks and a 6.5 K/9 rate. That’s basically Joel Pinero or Scott Sanderson.

What’s more, in his only truly great year (2009), he had a .268 BABip – in his other two seasons it was right at .300. In addition, 2009 saw him post a 79.4% strand rate – in his other two seasons it was right at 70% or so. Lastly, there has been no difference in contact rates since Jurrjens entered the league, meaning there is little chance he improves his K-rate.

Consequently, Jurrjens is basically what he was in 2008; I see his 2011 looking like: 3.90 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, with 130 Ks.

For comparison’s sake, Pineiro has averaged a 4.07 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 93 Ks and a 4.9 K/9 rate over the last three seasons. Oh, and Bill James has Pinero pegged at a 4.06 ERA with 110 Ks.

At this price, I’ll pass on that and grab someone like Ricky Nolasco, Edwin Jackson, Jorge de la Rosa, CJ Wilson, Ted Lilly, Ian Kennedy, Brian Matusz, Jhoulys Chacin, etc.

Basically, if a pitcher doesn’t have elite ratios, there’s simply no reason to spend a top 17 round pick on a guy who won’t strike-out more than 150 batters.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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