h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before the Season Even Starts: Aaron Hill

Aaron Hill – Current ADP 163 – My Rank: 108th Hitter; 15th Second baseman

There was really no way Hill could replicate his impressive 2009 campaign. Coming off a concussion and completely under the radar, Hill posted a .286/.330/.499 line with 36 HRs. His HR/FB% sat at 14.9% — by far the highest he had ever posted.

So, what happened in 2010? Well his line drive percentage plummeted (from a career mark of 18.5% to 10.6%), his HR/FB% came back to earth at 10.8% and his average on balls in play (.198) was about as lucky as the cooler.

Still, Aaron Hill is more the 2009 version than the 2010 version – but how much more is the question. If you average out the two seasons, you get a guy with 31 HRs and a .250/.304/.453 line. That strikes me as a tad low on the ratio side of things, but a smidge high on the gross power number.

Unfortunately, I’d think you’d rather have a .250 hitting second basemen with 30+ HRs, then the .260 hitter with just 20-25 HRs that I think Hill will be in 2011. Basically, his slash line will come back some, but I don’t see him coming all that close to 30 HRs. In addition, given his poor OBP, he likely won’t come near the 100 runs he scored in 2009.

Aaron Hill.2011 looks like a 25 HR guy with 70 Runs/RBIs and a .260 average. That’s not useless, but I’m probably not taking him in the 16th round or so – he strikes me as more of a 20th round type of value.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

___________________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discreetly of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: