h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before the Season Even Starts: Madison Bumgarner

Madison Bumgarner – Current ADP 143; 37th Pitcher – My Rank: 94th Pitcher; 76th starter

Clearly, I’m pretty down on Bumgarner given that he is barely in my top 100 pitchers and would be a sixth starter at best in a 12-team league.

I‘ve never been one to go after the young heartthrobs and with just 121 MLB IPs, Bumgarner certainly qualifies. I also think that last year was a bit lucky and am concerned that MLB batters will catch up to him, requiring an adjustment period.

In 2010, Bumgarner posted a decent 6.97 K/9 rate – and, if he keeps his velocity, there’s some room to grow (eventually). However he did have an 83.6% contact rate so there wasn’t an overwhelming amount of swings and misses. In addition, the Giants bull-pen, which was dynamite down the stretch, really helped him out as he had an 81.7% strand rate – something completely out of his control – and with the variance that bullpens experience it’s hard to project that to continue.

Basically, I see Bumgarner as a .3.50-ERA pitcher with a decent WHIP (1.25 or so) and about 130 Ks. That’s useful, but definitely not anything special. For example, I think Ted Lilly eclipses those numbers quite easily and he is going around pick 210. In addition, there are guys like Jonathan Sanchez (151), Brett Myers (155), and Gio Gonzalez (165) who are going a bit later and have better upside in my opinion.

Bumgarner is a nice pitcher who could develop into something special – 2011 is not the year though and he shouldn’t be chosen inside the top 20 rounds.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discreetly of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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