h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Will Venable

Will Venable– Current ADP 304; 72nd OF – My Rank: 122nd hitter; 59th OF

Just look at Venable move through this course and try not to think of him as a Bo Jackson-level athlete.

While his physical prowess resulted in a 13 HR, 29 SB season, his K-rate continued to climb – resting at 32.7% at the end of 2010. Still, there is some optimism as it looks like he learned to take a walk or two – as his walk rate hit double digits for the first time since 2008.

Unfortunately, Venable hasn’t been able to lay off pitches outside the zone – in 2008, he swung at pitches outside of the zone 25% of the time, the following year 30.7%, then 33.7% last year. Furthermore, his contact rate has fallen the last three seasons from 79.7%-to-73.3%-to-72.7%. All of this culminated in Venable seeing more pitches outside the zone and given he cant lay-off him, he’ll continue to make less and weaker contact.

Consequently, it seems like last season was a bit of the peak for Venable unless he can change his approach. I can’t imagine his .320 OBP will afford him tons of SB chances – meaning he shouldn’t approach anywhere near 30. In fact, 20+ seems like a long shot (he only stole 20+ once in the minors and not since 2007). Consequently, we’re looking at a 15/20 guy at best with a poor batting average.

The only caveat I have with Venable is that there is no offense to speak of in the Padres line-up. This means they’ll have to “manufacture” runs however possible, which could result in more stolen base opportunities up and down the line-up. If this occurs, Venable has a slight chance of approaching last year’s stolen base numbers.

There are simply too many “ifs” with Venable to make him any kind of an option outside of NL-only leagues. I do like him a tad more than his super late-round selection number, but really only for 20-team leagues.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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5 responses to this post.

  1. If you dislike Venable so much, why do you have him ranked 182 spots higher than his average draft spot?

    Reply

  2. I dont combine my pitching and hitting ranking, so a lot of the hitters i have late will go way above their ADP. As a rule of thumb, hitters after 100 or so should add 10-15 rounds to their rank.

    I also think I ranked Venable a little high based on his HR/SB profile last year, with further investigation, that seems like a reach to attain in 2011.

    Reply

  3. […] Venable – I’ve written a surprising amount about the Venable family (here, here, here)…especially when you look at what Will and Max have accomplished to date. Still, you […]

    Reply

  4. […] Venable – I’ve written a surprising amount about the Venable family (here, here, here)…especially when you look at what Will and Max have accomplished to date. Still, you […]

    Reply

  5. […] Venable – I have this weird love/hate thing going on with Venable. There’s no denying the streak he’s been on lately (two steals […]

    Reply

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