h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Bud Norris

Bud Norris – Current ADP 317; 87th SP – My Rank: 114th Pitcher; 90th SP

I have always been a Bud Norris fan. One main reason is that it allows me to link to Wall Street quotes.

The second reason is that Norris has a career 9.1 K/9 rate. So, I’m a little disappointed that I ranked him so low. There are clearly a lot of players – I probably ranked over 600 – but Norris fell through the cracks.

It’s true that Norris hasn’t been overly healthy in his professional career and has only accumulated 209.1 MLB IPs. Still, he’s an h2h pitcher’s dream as he can post monster K numbers in just one start – and, if he gets two starts, double digit Ks are a given.

Of course, people will balk at his career 4.82 ERA – however he has outperformed that when you look at FIP (4.33) and xFIP (4.19). While last year was his worst ERA, there were some promising signs: he increased his GB%, lowered his HR/FB% and increased the amount of times batters swung at his pitches outside the zone.

If Norris can stay healthy, he is a legitimate 180+ K candidate. Sure, playing for the lowly Astros likely wont result in many wins and his ratios (at best a 4.30 ERA and 1.45 WHIP) will leave a lot to be desired, but having the fireballer in your hip pocket could help you win Ks on a weekly basis.

Toward the end of drafts, he’s a definite option.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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