h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Ike Davis

Ike Davis – Current ADP 202; 18th 1B – My Rank: 111th hitter; 20th 1B

This isn’t at all spurned by the fact that Ike Davis is my starting first baseman in a 20-team writer’s league – not at all. I swear

In reality, he was on the list before that draft, but who knows if I would have pulled his name today had I not selected him recently.

Still, I really wanted to investigate the first basemen further given his successful 2010 campaign (.264/.351/.440).

Unfortunately, his isolated power (a measure of a hitter’s raw power) was just .173 (first basemen averaged about .200 last year) – so he gave up power compared to the position. He did post far better ISOs in AAA last year and AA before that – but it was against weaker competition and in hitter-friendly ballparks.

Of course, he did manage 19 HRs and 33 doubles last year – so he’s not James Loney. From my research, most projection systems have him approaching the normal ISO for the position which should get him over the 20 HR hump. With a modest improvement in his BABip (somewhere closer to his minor league numbers), you’re looking at a guy with .280 average potential (although he will probably sit in the .270s) and a .360 OBP. In short, he should get on base enough and drive enough runners in.

I took Davis with the 240th pick in the 20-teamer, so his ADP is clearly fluctuating. I think I got good value in him, especially in this deep a league. It seems he’ll comfortably slide in the top 18-20 first basemen (especially if you throw out the catchers that qualify at first) with upside to be in the 12-15 range. Still, his moderate upside won’t win you your league, but he’ll be a steady source of runs/RBIs and 20 HRs or so. Think of him as pretty similar to Adam LaRoche with a smidge better AVG and more upside.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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