h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Brett Cecil

Brett Cecil – Current ADP Not Ranked; 105th+? SP – My Rank: 77th Pitcher; 62nd SP

Cecil made an inauspicious debut in 2009 with the Toronto Blue Jays, posting a 5.30 ERA and not showing the 9+ K/9 rate he flashed in his minor league career. Still, he was beset by a .338 BABip (it was never higher than .313 in the minors) and a 74% strand rate – oh and it was only 93 innings. So his xFIP was 4.68.

He followed up his 2009 with 172.2 innings in the majors in 2010. His BABip was .293, he struck out 6.1 batters per nine innings and his strand rate was right at 70%. So he had a 4.22 ERA and 4.32 FIP.

Cecil, only 24, seems ready to take a step forward in 2011. He lowered his line drive and HR/FB percentage last year. He also increased the amount of times batters swung at pitches outside the zone, lowered his contact rate and increased his swinging strike percentage.

In short, I see Cecil incredibly capable of throwing up an ERA that hovers around 4.00 +/- .15. I think he’ll continue to miss more bats and see his K-rate improve to around 7. I’ll give him 175 innings, so good for 140 Ks or so with a bit of upside. If he can maintain a walk rate under three free passes per nine innings, we’re looking at a WHIP between 1.30-1.35.

I can’t imagine his numbers will be any worse than someone like Carl Pavano, Mike Pelfrey, and others. He could even outperform the likes of Wade Davis, Trevor Cahill and Tim Hudson. Certainly, if he is going undrafted in a lot of leagues, he’ll provide phenomenal value.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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