h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Jimmy Rollins

Jimmy Rollins – Current ADP 40; 4th SS – My Rank: 112; 10th SS

Much like J-Lo, J-Roll has fallen hard. I use to love J-Roll, he (along with Matt Holliday and Grady Sizemore) helped me win my most emphatic championship. At one point, he was my favorite baseball player not on the Orioles. I have written eloquently about him.

However, that has to stop. I need to remain somewhat objective (even if it means praising Derek Jeter and Rivera).

Quite simply, things have not gone well for Rollins since his MVP season in 2007. His average has dropped from .296 to .277 to .250 to .243 (the last being in only 88 games). During that four-year trek to the dregs, his line drive percentage has tanked, his ground ball percentage has gone up, and his HR/FB rate has gone down.

I’d love to blame last year’s poor performance on injuries and BABip (it was .246); however, in 155 healthy-ish games in 2009, he posted a .251 BABip. Rollins has also started to swing at more balls outside of the zone than he did in his younger years; and consequently is seeing less balls thrown inside the strike zone. Still, by most metrics he remains a solid fielder, so his legs are still there – no small feat for a 32-year-old who has logged over 1,500 games (when you count the post season).

Unfortunately, no matter how hard I try, I can’t see Rollins getting back to that .275 hitter he was during his peak – and he has never taken any walks. So, at this point, there is very little AVG/OBP upside.

He might push 15-20 HRs and 25-30 SBs, but will likely rest on the low end of the spectrum for each.

Even though shortstop is incredibly shallow, you can make up his numbers with any sort of player – I prefer to take a Rafael Furcal and pair him with a decent back-up rather than spending a top 40 pick. In the 40s, you can get the likes of Andrew McCutcheon, Adam Dunn, Jose Bautista, Jayson Werth, Jason Heyward, etc. etc. etc.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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One response to this post.

  1. […] was part of the Freddie Freeman trade. I made no bones about my dislike of Rollins’ prospects for 2011, but even I expected more than what he has done recently. He is 3/23 with a stolen base over the […]

    Reply

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