h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Nelson Cruz

Nelson Cruz – Current ADP 33; 9th OF – My Rank: 22; 10th OF

Over the last two seasons, Cruz has averaged a .287/.351/.548 slash line with 28 HRs and 18 SBs in just 118 games/year. That’s silliness. Imagine if he could stay just a bit healthier.

And really – that’s the only question about Cruz – how many games he’ll play – and I’m not real sure anyone can predict that.

Still, even in a modest 130 games, he’s a 30-20 candidate with sublime ratios. I’m confident that he can deliver second round value playing in the amount of games a catcher would.

But, think of the upside. If he could stay healthy, he’d be a 40 HR/25 SB player. That nudges him up a round in my book – you can’t typically get first round upside that far from the top 15 picks. However Cruz (along with Justin Upton) provide that. If you can steal Cruz in the third round, you should be amply rewarded.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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