h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Nick Swisher

Nick Swisher – Current ADP 121; 33rd OF – My Rank: 54th hitter; 25th OF

This is where I get to claim that I don’t have an unnaturally negative bias of the New York Yankees because of a 12-year-old boy.

Swisher has hit 29 HRs on the nose for the Yankees the last two seasons. He also hit .270 over his time with the club and added 86 RBIs/season and 88 runs/season.

Sure his .288 average last year (owing to a .335 BABip) is somewhat of a mirage – his career BABip is just .286. However his near 25% walk rate will continue to get him on base and scoring runs for a potent line-up. Even if he bats .260, he’ll post a .360 OBP, which means he’ll score 90 runs or so. He also has the potential to eclipse 30 HRs, with 25+ a lock and knock in 80 at minimum.

Give his ability to put up the counting stats, add in a decent amount of homeruns and not completely destroy your batting average, I’m surprised at how low he is going.

I’d much rather have Swisher than someone like Delmon Young who wont score nearly the same amount of runs and possibly hit 10 less HRs – ditto for Corey Hart and Nick Markakis and Vernon Wells and Alfonso Soriano. Swisher is a #2 OF for your squad who you can get at a #3’s price. As a 10th rounder, he provides a ton of value.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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One response to this post.

  1. […] i.e., a slightly better version of Bruce’s sophomore campaign – but short of what someone like Nick Swisher will […]

    Reply

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