h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Hunter Pence

Hunter Pence – Current ADP 81; 21st OF – My Rank: 24th hitter; 11th OF

Collin Hager did a phenomenal job comparing Pence to Shin-Soo Choo. I want to do an equally awesome job comparing Pence to where he is going in drafts – and yes, I’ll play the dis-r-e-s-p-e-c-t card.

In his first three full years in the majors, Pence has averaged 25 HRs, 82 runs, 82 RBIs, and 14 SBs a year. He has also hit .278 over that span, but it is bogged down by a .269 average in 2008. He has hit .282 on the dot the last two years (also 25 HRs on the dot the last three).

Furthermore, Pence seems to be maturing as a base runner as he turns 28. After going a combined 25/46 in SB attempts in 2008 and 2009, he went 18/27 last year. Consequently, he’s a lock for over 15 SBs, with upside to 20.

Pence tied for 27th in the majors in runs scored last year, 28th in RBIs, 41st in HRs, 52nd in average and 39th in stolen bases. He just puts up consistent, top 50, numbers across the board, year in year out.

In the early rounds, you can’t miss on a pick and you need to accumulate a smorgasbord of statistics – that is Pence. I’m not sure why the likes of Curtis Granderson, BJ Upton, Alex Rios and several other guys are being selected well before him.

I’d happily grab Pence as a top tier #2 OF in the 6th round!

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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