h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Colby Rasmus

Colby Rasmus – Current ADP 88; 22nd OF – My Rank: 57th hitter; 26th OF

From a non-scientific and entirely casual Google exploration of the answer of “who is 2011’s CarGo?” Colby Rasmus seems to get the lion share of the answers.

However, I’m not quite sure the 24-year-old is ready to make that kind of leap.

That said, I do think he will outperform his current ADP – albeit slightly. I just don’t buy his career trajectory as something like CarGo’s (and seriously that was a once in a million years season).

Instead, Rasmus reminds me a lot more of Jay Bruce. At 21, Bruce showed all the promise in the world, hitting 21 HRs in just 108 games. However his sophomore campaign would not go as expected – he’d bat .223, battle injuries/demotions and appear in just 101 games. Of course a fair amount of bad luck (.221 BABip) played a part in that disappointing season.

Nevertheless, I see some similar warning signs with Rasmus – last season he had a .354 BABip – it was .282 the year before and never that far north of .300 in the minors.

In addition, in 2010, he didn’t hit anymore line drives, but did significantly increase his HR/FB% (from 9.4 to 14.8). Given those two things and a k-rate that will be north of 24%, I don’t think he has the chance to hit .280 or so, nor do I see an exceptional power upside.

I see Rasmus more as a .260 hitter with 20-25 HRs – i.e., a slightly better version of Bruce’s sophomore campaign – but short of what someone like Nick Swisher will provide.

The thing Rasmus has that Swisher doesn’t is a chance to steal 15-20 bases (which he did from 2006-2008 in the minors). Still, the conservative projector in me has him much closer to 15.

Basically, I’m in the odd position of both calling Rasmus a sleeper but trying to guard against a fair amount of hype that thinks he can be a top 20 performer.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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