Drew Stubbs – Current ADP 156; 42nd OF – My Rank: 41st hitter; 17th OF
Let me start with a caveat: the batting average risk with Stubbs should knock him down your board a bit in roto leagues – however I’d still be comfortable taking him in the top 100 picks.
Meanwhile, in h2h, he should go near the top 40. Given his ADP, I think Stubbs is as close any player will come to matching the return on investment Carlos Gonzalez gave owners last year (and remember I called CarGo an 8th rounder last year).
You know the good with Stubbs – the ability to combine power and speed in a wayx that made Grady Sizemore look like a god (until they smote him). The bad from 2010 was an escalating K-rate – he struck out 32.7% of the time. He also swung at balls outside of the zone more often, made less contact with balls thrown inside the zone and traded line drives (down six percent) for fly balls (up four percent).
I think his K-rate can come down a good margin – it was 27% in 196 plate appearances in 2009 and never that close to 32% in the minors. Consequently, I can see his average inching up ever-so-slightly – he’ll probably hit a bit over .260. However, if he keeps trading line drives for fly balls, he has no average upside – but who cares? Everyone digs the long ball!
He could, legitimately, go 20-40, or 20-50. I think the floor is 20-30 (which he did last season). At only 26, Stubbs sure seems to have a bright future ahead of him. Given his ballpark and batting mates, he has good run/RBIs upside as well.
Quite simply, Stubbs should be the biggest bargain in h2h leagues in 2011.
Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).
__________
Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).
While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.
Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.
Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).
h2h Corner 