James McDonald – Current ADP 295; 82nd SP – My Rank: 116th pitcher; 93rd SP
I almost didn’t want to write this one out of shame. I have McDonald on my ADP “to write” list because I was sure I had him higher than he was going – and it turns out I am the one underrating McDonald – a guy I rode to an NL-only crown.
Think of this as my apology to the Pirates, good citizens of Pittsburgh, and McDonald’s parents.
McDonald, just 26, has been an up-and-coming prospect for what seems like forever. He routinely posted K/9 rates in the minors over 10 and never lower than eight. In his 140.2 MLB IPs (spread over three season), McDonald has a 7.93 rate. Oh and he also doesn’t give up homers (career .64 HR/9 rate).
McDonald’s 2010 4.22 ERA looks unspectacular, and downright National League pedestrian, however he did have a .322 BABip and near 72% strand rate – both numbers should come down in 2011. When they do, we’re looking at a guy with a 3.65 ERA and the potential to post an 8.5 K/9 rate over 190 innings. When I do the math for you, I come up with 180 Ks on the season.
Sure he wont win any games and his WHIP will be in the 1.30s (although on the low side), but that sub-4.00 ERA and 180 Ks is incredibly useful in any fake league.
In short, I’m sorry. McDonald should be higher in my ranks and have a much higher ADP. He should be going well above Tim Stauffer, Carl Pavano, Mike Pelfrey, Randy Wells, Carlos Carrasco, J.A. Happ, etc. I could see a case for McDonald being a top 200 player and would have no problem selecting him in the teens of a draft.
My bad. Hope this helps mend the fences.
Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).
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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).
While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.
Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.
Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).
h2h Corner 