Pedro Alvarez – Current ADP 83; 7th 3B – My Rank: 148th hitter; 21st 3B
Every year there is at least one hot young player that keeps getting pimped like he is Mary Magdalene. Like Chris Davis a few years ago, Alex Gordon, Brandon Wood and Dallas McPherson before that, people tend to spend top 10 round selections on guys that do way more to hurt their fake team than help (we’re talking the cost it takes to acquire the player plus potentially negative statistics).
I’m not sure Alvarez is that player this year, I believe in him from a power standpoint – however he is going way too high, especially relative to established guys at his position.
Across AAA and the majors last season, Alvarez hit 29 HRs. That’s some real and awesome power – he also paired it with a .256 average in the majors.
However, in the majors, he struck out 34.3% of the time and posted a .341 BABip (which isn’t unsustainable but seems high for someone like him). He also hit grounders 45.7% of the time last year which might limit him from getting massive power numbers.
I’m reticent to spend a top 10 round pick on a guy who will strike-out near 30% of the time, did the bulk of his damage in September/October (.306/.355/.577) and, even in the best of circumstances, will not help in average or stolen bases.
I don’t think he’ll be a bust, but for that price tag, I’d rather have Colby Rasmus, Alexei Ramirez, Aramis Ramirez and others.
Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).
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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).
While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.
Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.
Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).
h2h Corner 