h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Matt Joyce

Matt Joyce – Current ADP 385; 86th OF – My Rank: 241; 108th OF

Given the amount of time I’ve spent on the radio with Tampa Bay Rays guys (and a huge thanks for Jason Collette for coming on the show and Jonah Keri who will be on tonight), I figured I had to talk about Joyce the player – no the novelist, I hated the Dubliners.

After being part of the Edwin Jackson trade, it seemed Joyce was primed for a consistent role with the major league club. That hasn’t been the case for a variety of reasons as Joyce has spent just 88 games with the big league club over the last two years.

Still, in his 261 plate appearances last year, there is clearly reason for optimism: he went .241/.360/.477 with 10 HRs, a 15.3% walk rate and a .236 ISO*.

*From Fangraphs: “Isolated Power (ISO) is a measure of a hitter’s power. Or, to look at it another way, it measures how good a player is at hitting for extra bases.”

While somewhat unreliable, you can look at Joyce’s 162-game average statistics and see a 25-homer guy quite easily. However, Joyce probably won’t get to play in 162 games as it appears the Rays will sit him against lefties, which makes some sense. So if you give him 120 games or so, you’ll get 420 plate appearances, which should help him push 20 HRs. He’ll probably fall short, but 20 is definitely within the plus/minus.

In addition, he should hit near .260 and add 60 runs/RBIs (given his impressive walk rate).

I like Joyce as a late round flier – and apparently others do to. He is someone for deep leagues and the last round of 12-teamers. Given he won’t be a full time player (nor would you want him batting against lefties because it would destroy his average), it’s hard to make him a true sleeper as he’ll only get the same amount of at bats as a catcher while playing a deep fantasy position.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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5 responses to this post.

  1. Great article, as usual.
    I happen to be in a 7×7, 10 team league. So I won’t be drafting Matt Joyce, no matter what round he’s available.

    On another note, what are your feelings on David Wright this season??
    I know 3rd base is shallow, but he’s extremely overrated.
    ESPN has him going 12th overall and before guys like Youkilis and Zimmerman.
    The guy has no identity, and seems to be a boarderline headcase.
    Does he hit for power or average? Because it definitely isn’t both.
    Plus, his team is in shambles, in a variety of ways.
    Not to mention, the ballpark is horrible.
    All that said, I’d say he should be being drafted nowhere lower than high 20’s.

    Reply

  2. I kind of (totally) disagree with what you said – I have Wright #10 overall and i dont think 3b is all that shallow.

    Over the last 3 seasons, DWright has averaged 24 HRs, 97 runs, 100 RBI, 20 SBs and a .297/.378 AVE/OBP – that’s very impressive.

    While his average suffered a tad last year, he did hit an impressive .283. He did hit fewer line drives last year and more fly balls, but I’m not going to say that’s a trend until we see it happen again. He’s a .290/.375/.510 guy with 27 – 32 HRS and 20 steals with 100 run/RBIs +/- 5 almost a given. He’s right up there with Longoria and should have similar numbers to Carlos Gonzalez – but he plays third. I’m a hug fan of Wright and i hate the Mets

    Reply

  3. Thanks so much for reading and posting – i love having these discussion with you!

    Reply

  4. The funny thing is, I actually took David Wright in the 2nd round(13th overall pick) of my draft 2 days ago, and I’ve regretted it since the second I put his name on the board(for the reasons I stated above).
    Thanks to your rebuttal, I don’t feel nearly as bad as I did, about the pick.
    But I still can’t say I’m not skeptical about every player on that pathetic Mets team.

    Reply

  5. […] Joyce – It’s safe to say, I’ve been a Matt Joyce supporter (see: here & here). However, I can’t buy his current production: .367/.426/.608 with six bombs. […]

    Reply

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