h2h Corner ~ You’re Killing me Smalls: Yovani Gallardo

Yovani Gallardo: Average Draft Position 64

5×5 Rank: 734

Ownership: 97%

31.1 IPs, 2 wins, 20 Ks, 4.88 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Things, seemingly, started beautifully for Gallardo in 2011. After his first two starts, he had pitched 15 innings, allowed two runs and allowed just 14 base runners. Unfortunately, he only tallied six Ks and has posted a 5.74 K/9 rate this year. This ratio has been 9.73+ over the last two seasons.

While his strand rate isn’t great (68.6%), it isn’t bad – neither are his HR/FB rates or BABip. He is allowing less line drives and fly balls than last year and more ground balls. Quite simply, batters are making more contact against him (67.5% on pitches outside of the zone compared to his 58.8% career line; and 92.7% on pitches in the zone compared to 87.6% for his career). He is also getting less swinging strikes (6.9%) than he has previously (8.6% for his career).

Still if he strikes out six batters over his next six innings, his k/9 rate will “jump” to 6.31. I use that to illustrate how few innings Gallardo has accumulated. I’m not terribly concerned about Gallardo, however I’m not sure he is the lock for 200 Ks that he was a few short weeks ago.

I still see a very good pitcher with an ERA in the 3.60-3.75 range and a WHIP around 1.35. However, I don’t see a K/9 rate above 9. Furthermore, given his history, you have to be a little concerned Gallardo might be injured. Tentatively, I see him raking up 170-180 Ks. But I wouldn’t be at all shocked if he ended up on the DL.

I wouldn’t push the panic button or move him for $0.70 on the dollar. However, if I got an offer worth 80% of his draft day value, I might pull the trigger.

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