h2h Corner~ You’re Killing Me Smalls: Derek Jeter

Derek Jeter, average draft position: 56.

5×5 rank: 721 (SS: 32nd)

Ownership 94%

.250/.310/.269 – 14 runs, 6 RBIs, o SBs, 2 caught stealings

A .269 slugging percentage – are you kidding me? Adam Dunn rolls over in bed and slugs that. Chone Figgins sprints to third and bests that.

In 2009, Derek Jeter had a 20.3% line drive rate – that was his highest since 2006 and seemed to reverse a disturbing downward trend. Of course, his line drive rate in 2010 was 16.1% which would be a new low watermark of the last nine full seasons. In 2011, his line drive rate is just 12%.

Almost as abruptly, Jeter’s ground ball rate was 57% in 2009 (not alarmingly bad compared to his career), 65.7% in 2010 and rests at 71.7% in 2011. That’s implausibly heinous.

He also isn’t clubbing any balls – his HR/FB rate has been around 9% three of the last four years (and I think we can ignore 2009). Of course, he’ll hit a homerun this year, right?

Unfortunately, Jeter is swinging and missing more this year than any season since 2004. Once a pretty decent fastball hitter, Jeter is getting destroyed by the pitch.

While all that might be the case, Jeter is actually striking out less, but not at the expense of his usual pedestrian walk rate. That optimism is carried over in a number of ZiPS projections. Either one you look at has Jeter at nine HRs, 13 steals and around a .275/.340/.365 line.

That ain’t great at all. And I can’t quibble with it – and I’m a Jeter owner. Still, he if continues to hit for the Yankees he should score runs. Basically, he’s like Placido Polanco, but with a worse average, more steals and better runs scored.

If you can trade on name alone, it looks like the strong move.

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One response to this post.

  1. […] in the year, the 19%-owned shortstop could help a lot of teams hurting at the position *cough* *Derek Jeter*. Aybar has posted an impressive .342 average (however that is paired with a .364 OBP, owing to a […]


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