Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.
That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.
Miguel Olivo – Exiled to the offensive haven that is Seattle, Olivo hasn’t been on a lot of fantasy radars. However, over the last seven days, Olivo smacked four dingers and collected 11 RBIs. Of course he batted .240, but come on, he’s Miguel Olivo. This power binge likely represents the best stretch of the year for Olivo. But, he can still put up 9 – 10 more dingers. If you need power, go ahead, just make sure you can alleviate the horrid batting average that comes with it.
Mark Reynolds – Speaking of horrid batting averages and power, Reynolds hit three homers and went 5/17 over the last seven days. He does have seven round trippers in his last 83 ABs, however, he is hitting just .229 during that stretch. As the summer heats up Camden Yards, Reynolds’ power stroke should come with it. I think he’s good for 20 more HRs and 10 more steals, of course that will come with a batting average within sight of the Mendoza line.
Austin Jackson – Jackson seems to be making regular appearances on the All-stars lately. He went 12/34 over his last seven days with seven runs. He is still swinging and missing and not making great contact. His line drive rate is worse than last year – so if Jackson finishes as a .260 hitter, it’ll be a surprise. Still he should be good for 15-20 more steals. It’s cheap speed, what can you do?
Todd Helton – I love me some Todd Helton – first ever fantasy pick, the cornerstone of my first ever fantasy championship (he paired with a young Miguel Cabrera at 3b). Anyway, the rejuvenation continues for Helton (8/19 over his last seven days). For anyone who owned James Loney, your wet dream was he’d be this good. That said, I’d be mildly surprised if he ended up with more than 15 HRs. He will hit for a good average.
Bobby Abreu – I could be Abreu’s biggest fantasy fan. Sometimes he makes me look good (like over the last seven days: 9/21 with two steals). At 37, Abreu has now reached double digit steals in every full season of his career. I see no reason he can’t get to 25 swipes this year. The power isn’t there like it was last year (just a 4% HR/FB rate and he is hitting far fewer fly balls), but he is a lock for 70+ runs and RBIs.
Chase Headley – I’m hurting, you’re hurting, we’re all hurting at 3b. You’ve probably contemplated picking up Headley for some time. Heck, if you’re like me, you’ve added and dropped him a ton of times this year and throughout his career. Over the last seven days, Headley has looked good by 3b standards (7/26 with a dinger and a steal). Of course, that homer doubled his total for the year and he doesn’t appear to be on last year’s SB pace. Still he will hit .275 or so with a chance at 10 HRs and 15 RBIs. It aint glamorous, but Mike Schmidt is not walking through that door.
Ben Revere – With all the prospect hoopla, the rise of Revere has gone largely unnoticed. Over the last seven days, he went 10/31 with a stolen base. Before he got the call, he was hitting .303/.338/.364 in AAA with eight steals in 32 games. In just 23 MLB games this year, Revere has four swipes. I actually like Revere more than Austin Jackson the rest of the way. They should have comparable stolen base numbers, but I think Revere will have a better average.
Chris Denorfia – At some point, I will announce my candidacy for president of the Chris Denorfia fan club. I write about him way too much. Desperate for any semblance of offense (which has included putting Brad Hawpe’s glove in the outfield), Denorfia has been batting lead-off a lot lately for the Padres. Over the last seven days, Denorfia went 7/24 with a homer and a steal. I still believe he finishes as a .280 hitter with 10 homers and 10 steals. Book it!
Jason Bartlett – Sure Rizzo has gotten all the attention, but Bartlett is 8 for his last 25 with a steal and 28 of his last 102 with five steals. In a crappy shortstop landscape, Bartlett’s light bag of tools will play. He should steal 15 or so bags the rest of the way and add a suitable average.
Carlos Carrasco – At a certain point this year, I was intrigued but what Carrasco was putting together – then he got hurt. Well, he pitched a gem recently (sure it was against the Twins, but it counts): 8.1 IPs, six Ks, no runs, and a 0.48 WHIP. He is still walking way too many batters and his K rate hasn’t matched his minor league success. However, there are match-ups out there where he is usable…making him a deep league match-ups play.
Jason Vargas – Two starts, 16.1 IPs, eight Ks, a 1.65 ERA and 0.80 WHIP was the last seven days for Vargas. Look at last year’s numbers and then look at this year – not much different, eh? He is someone you can use at home in pretty much every start and he has match-ups potential in away parks. There’s an easy blueprint to his usage.
Ricky Romero – A two-start seven day stretch got Romero a 4.60 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Most of that was a troublesome start against the pesky Orioles in Camden Yards…that’ll happen. I absolutely love Romero this season – an easy top 100 player. He doesn’t seem to have the pedigree of a #2 fantasy starter, but that’s what he is.
Clayton Kershaw – Speaking of pedigrees, Kershaw didn’t show his best in show stuff over the last seven days (12.2 IPs, 8.53 ERA and 1.42 WHIP). Still, he did record 15 punch-outs. There’s really nothing to see here. If you can buy low based on a minor rough patch go right ahead.
Justin Masterson – Masterson didn’t post a bad ERA (3.77), but his WHIP (1.40) was not so sweet over the last week (14.1 IPs). He’s not been better over his last 40 innings either (4.43 ERA and 1.43 WHIP). I assume you expected a regression here, he simply wasn’t as good as he was going. I’m not overly concerned long-term though – I’m still hanging with a 3.80 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 165 Ks.
Ryan Dempster – And with that I have broken the world record for number of words spent on Ryan Dempster in one season. Dempster had an up and down week – in total: 11 IPs, 13 Ks, a 5.73 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He shut down the Reds but got bitten by the Cardinals. Still, Dempster has been improving over his last 35 innings: 4.37 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with 37 Ks. I really believe Dempster can be a nice K horse down the stretch and his ERA/WHIP won’t negate that. It’s been time to grab Dempster for awhile now.
Casey McGehee – McGehee isn’t my type of player – seemingly the majority of his value is in RBIs, which he doesn’t have a ton of control over. So, the deluge in questions I’ve received about him caught me a little off guard. Well, he has gone 1 for his last 22 and 18 for his last 99. He is hitting a ton of ground balls this year and we’ve seen a three-year decline in his line drive rate. At this point, if he finishes as a .250 hitter with 12 HRs, you should be thankful. If only Mat Gamel could field a lick.
Justin Morneau – I’ve gotten a lot of Dunn v Morneau questions and I’ve picked Dunn. There seem to be so many nicks and bruises and aches and pains with Morneau, it’s not surprising he went 1/19 over this last week. He is also 26 for his last 105. This is looking like a lost year for Justin. I would much rather have Mark Trumbo.
Shin-Soo Choo – Steady as she goes, Choo no longer seems like it. He went 3/18 over his last seven days and sits at .240 for the season. That said, there is no difference in his line drive rate, he isn’t hitting anymore ground balls and he isn’t swinging and missing all that much. He is making less contact and walking less, but I believe Choo will get his mojo back. He’s good for double digit homers and steals the rest of the way.
Matt Joyce – Remember when I reminded you that Joyce was, indeed, not Babe Ruth? In going 3/22 over the last week, he has seen his average plummet 23 points. That doesn’t mean it is time to panic – he just wasn’t as good as he was (if that makes sense). He’s still going to hit 10 more homers, but the batting average and BABIP (.384) will come down a good bit.