The Elvis Andrus Rule for @TheFantasyFix

For some time, I’ve been bizarrely intrigued by Elvis Andrus. Once, he appeared to be the next Jose Reyes, a 100+ run, 40+ steal, fantasy behemoth. While he has been a sturdy fantasy performer, he has often put together great first halves that were never a prelude to greatness. For whatever reason, people seem unaware that Andrus does a Jekyll and Hyde routine in the first and second halves of the season:

Split	G	PA	R	H	2B	3B	SB	CS	BA	OBP	TB
1st Half	328	1413	201	347	46	15	81	20	.279	.347	444
2nd Half	276	1192	142	285	44	10	42	23	.270	.337	370

Andrus has been caught stealing more times in the second half despite 36 less attempts—both the lack of attempts and success are disconcerting. With pretty close on base rates, the logical conclusion is that the rigors of a season wear Andrus down.

For the full post, see: http://www.thefantasyfix.com/2013/04/the-elvis-andrus-rule/

Survivor Caramoan Episode 8 Recp

19 days seems like a real long time to play survivor. I can understand, sort of, how some people crack. You ever see that Solitary show? It’s not great, but free on Hulu, they do some ridiculous things to people.

“I made sure I got the gay.” WTF. Make it stop.

Philip telling them that he threw the challenge? Man, it’s hilarious that everyone knows he didn’t actually throw it. “That’s around the same time you blew the challenge.” Got to give Corinne that one, t’was funny.

Francesca, in the opening credits, LOL.

20 days without cheese would be hard.

Survivor Caramoan Episode 7 Recap

Bikal fell apart the moment they made these bull corn teams. Do you think they drew them and seriously considering doing another draw? You couldn’t have made them more lopsided if you wanted.

I like Michael. He seems pretty smart. Tough deck he was dealt. If only he was on Corinne’s team from the jump. I’m not funny.

Philip isn’t an idiot.  I mean what Corinne said at tribal and these conversations….Philip isn’t wrong here. I want Cochran’s take here. Where’s his interview? Not enough Cochran and Andrea this season, IMO.

I like Cochran’s pessimistic realism.

Survivor Caramoan Episode 6 recap

Kelsey is the author of my fate.

I think the game got less interesting without Brandon…obvious alert.

Phillip has the best wardrobe and manboobs….

Every time I see Shamar I shake my head. So good on paper. Well, championships aren’t won on paper!

Home Depot is a crazy place. Went there this weekend. I wanted to buy many brackets.

Commercials are the worst. Buy me a TiVo and pay monthly subscription?

Their camp was pretty awesome. It still is way better than the fans. Not even close, even without rice or whatever.

Switching tribes? God darn it. So hard to keep track.

Purple is so screwed. Every single athletic player is on orange. All the purple people are trying to spin this positively. They are screwed big time. Gonna loose loose loose. I only didn’t catch where Sherri/Julia/Andrea were, not bad…

Do Blown Saves Tell us anything for Fantasy Baseball? for @TheFantasyFix

Do Blown Saves Tell us anything for Fantasy Baseball? for the Fantasy Fix. To try and ascertain whether blown saves have a negative impact on saves and/or value, I pulled every relief season since 2009 and sliced and diced the data, mostly sorting by quantity of blown saves and looking at how relievers performed after blowing a lot of saves.

The short of what I found is that, at least recently, blown saves don’t tell us much about the future value of a given reliever. One reason for this is, perhaps, poor relievers aren’t given an opportunity to accumulate many blown saves and get a hook quite quickly and are easily replaced, so they don’t appear in (large-ish) samples. Read more at the Fix: http://www.thefantasyfix.com/2013/03/do-blown-saves-tell-us-anything-for-fantasy-baseball/ 

Mister Fantastic: Addison Reed’s Exceptional Elastic Arm for @TheFantasyFix

In the 2013 Relief Pitcher Guide, I wrote this about Addison Reed:

“Aside from a low strand rate (68.5%), high BABIP (.323) and somewhat low K/9 rate (8.84), Reed lived up to his sleeper status. While the K/9 rate was lower than projections, his 22.7 K% was above average – and he did well in getting ahead of hitters with a 66% first strike rate. He showed even more command in a 7.6 BB%. Basically, his 2012 ERA is going to make Reed a huge discount on draft day. There is a legit chance Reed is the most valuable reliever in the AL this season, as he is capable of a 2.70 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 70+ K’s.”

Read the full article at The Fantasy Fix: http://www.thefantasyfix.com/2013/03/mister-fantastic-addison-reeds-exceptional-elastic-arm/

Survivor Caramoan Episode 5 recap

Must say I’ve seen a few teasers here and there that this episode is epic – I try to inoculate myself but Twitter had some stuff. Still, I don’t know exactly what happens. That said, I do imagine Brandon does something, so my shock factor might be lower than expected.

Watching TV on cbs.com is a pain in the ass. You’re lucky I rov you.

How do you go on survivor being incredibly weak? Like Laura, learn how to win, do some jumping jacks, for cimminys sake.

Reynold doing some major league rationalization in getting duped into using his idol. Reynold is the captain Jetes of survivor Caramoan apparently, only if Jeter never won anything. What has Reynold done that so exceptional? Invent the wrap?

That was probably funnier in my head.

Survivor Caramoan Episode 4 Recap

I wonder why Laura lied to Reynold. Get him not to use the idol? Maybe creative editing to add drama?

Eddie doesn’t quite understand alliances, right? Or most other things?

Reynold and Eddie are the poorest losers ever. Don’t they realize that they have a buffer in numbers now so fans can cut Shamar/Laura and still have power over Eddie/Reynold while doing the best in challenges….or even mend fences? The others just needed to get rid of those two women to kill the four cool person alliance.

Blows my mind that The Dude does voice over for Hyundai commercials.

MORE PHILLIP. MORE. Why does he not have talk show? Terry freaking Bradshaw had a talk show.

2013 Fantasy Baseball Relief Pitcher Guide [Updated 3.15] for @TheFantasyFix

I’ve updated the 2013 Fantasy Baseball Relief Pitcher Guide . I have edited the sections on:

• Grant Balfour
• Luke Hochevar
• Aroldis Chapman
• Chris Perez
• Ryan Madson
• Carlos Marmol
• Frank Herrmann
• Fernando Rodriguez
• Craig Breslow

For more information, visit: http://www.thefantasyfix.com/2013/03/2013-fantasy-baseball-relief-pitcher-guide-updated-3-15/.

2013 Fantasy Baseball Head-to-Head Catcher Rankings and Preview for @FP911

2013 Fantasy Baseball Head-to-Head Catcher Rankings and Preview for Fantasy Pros 911: http://fp911.com/2013-fantasy-baseball-head-to-head-catcher-rankings-preview/. 

For a brief tutorial on how to use my head-to-head ranks, please visit here. For all of my in-depth rankings breakdowns, please visit http://fp911.com/author/albertlang/. For spreadsheets of rankings visit here.

Why I (generally) Avoid Catchers: Given the lack of consistent at bats and injury concerns at the position, I tend to hate drafting catchers early (so they are typically inordinately low on my board). It’s not hard to get top 5-10 catchers at the end of the draft or even off the wire. I’ve never owned Joe Mauer or Victor Martinez (aside from his under-the-radar breakout year in 2004). Read the full article here.