For some time, I’ve been bizarrely intrigued by Elvis Andrus. Once, he appeared to be the next Jose Reyes, a 100+ run, 40+ steal, fantasy behemoth. While he has been a sturdy fantasy performer, he has often put together great first halves that were never a prelude to greatness. For whatever reason, people seem unaware that Andrus does a Jekyll and Hyde routine in the first and second halves of the season:
Split |
G |
PA |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
SB |
CS |
BA |
OBP |
TB |
1st Half |
328 |
1413 |
201 |
347 |
46 |
15 |
81 |
20 |
.279 |
.347 |
444 |
2nd Half |
276 |
1192 |
142 |
285 |
44 |
10 |
42 |
23 |
.270 |
.337 |
370 |
Andrus has been caught stealing more times in the second half despite 36 less attempts—both the lack of attempts and success are disconcerting. With pretty close on base rates, the logical conclusion is that the rigors of a season wear Andrus down.
For the full post, see: http://www.thefantasyfix.com/2013/04/the-elvis-andrus-rule/