Posts Tagged ‘2011 Ranks’

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Pablo Sandoval

Pablo Sandoval – Current ADP 125; 12th 3b – My Rank: 115th hitter; 15th 3b

Another twitter nomination! Sandoval confounded owners in 2010 after posting an incredibly good 152 game appearance in 2009.

Given he only has 2+ years of MLB experience, it’s a bit difficult to parse whether 2009 or 2010 is closer to the real Sandoval.

He did have a, perhaps high, .350 BABip in 2009 (but he also did in 154 MLB plate appearances in 2008 and similar numbers in the minors). So was his .291 mark in 2010 an aberration? I think it is – his line drive percentage, ground ball percentages, etc. are all in line with his major league track record. Consequently, I think he can bounce back to a .300 hitter (+/- .010), which is pretty nice.

However, the other problem Sandoval had in 2010 was a decline in ISO from .226 in 2009 to just .184 last year. He hit 12 less HRs and halved his 2010 HR/FB rate. I’m going to split the difference on 2009/2010 and give him an ISO near .180 or so. If he gets 600 or so ABs, that should result in 16-20 HRs.

Consequently, Sandoval looks to be a .300 hitting third baseman with moderate pop. Think of him as a Martin Prado-lite with fewer runs and more risk in batting average. He will likely out-RBI and –homer Prado though it could be closer than you think.

I could see Sandoval passing Chase Headley, Michael Cuddyer, and Scott Rolen in my rankings, but am not sure he has top 10 upside. I think he is being a tad overvalued in drafts and would much rather secure a top flight third basemen or wait and pick up the scraps. Sandoval’s upside is not really worth a 10 – 12 round price tag.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Jhoulys Chacin

Jhoulys Chacin – Current ADP 213; 67th SP– My Rank: 72nd pitcher; #58 SP

Maybe I’m not reading enough stuff, but I haven’t heard a lot of chatter about the Rockies starting rotation, specifically Jhoulys Chacin. In the past, I’ve been huge fans of Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge de la Rosa.

In his first real taste of the majors last year, Chacin pitched 137.1 innings and threw up a 9.04 K/9 rate, a 3.28 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.

Now that K/9 rate might be a tad high as the highest he posted in the minors was 8.58 in 35.2 innings in AAA last year (when he was repeating the level). So let’s pencil him in for a K-rate around 8.15 – and this is being extremely cautious. If he achieves this (which I think he will easily) and throws 175 innings, he’s a lock for about 160 Ks.

If you add his wholly reasonable 3.75 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, you’ve got the makings of a very nice pitcher. I hate to keep doing this, but most projections have Trevor Cahill at around a 3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 5.40 K/9 rate (130 Ks or so). So who would you rather have? I’d take Chacin without much thought.

I’m kind of shocked Chacin is going toward the end of most drafts – I’d rather have him than Derek Holland (who I love), Kevin Slowey, Jonathan Niese, Jaime Garcia, Jair Jurrjens, and Tim Hudson to name a few.

This year (as well as last year) you really should tap the Rockies for pitching – stay thirsty my friends?

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Anibal Sanchez

Anibal Sanchez – Current ADP 247; 69th SP – My Rank: 61st pitcher; 52nd SP

For awhile now, I’ve been on the Marlins bandwagon. Even looking back at some radio spots from the end of 2010, I thought the Marlins could do some nice things in 2011, especially with the likes of Michael Stanton, LoMo, Josh Johnson, Nolasco, Gaby Sanchez, etc. I didn’t like the Uggla trade, but hasn’t stopped me from liking them.

One reason I like the Marlins is the depth of their starting pitching staff, which includes the completely overlooked Anibal Sanchez. Just 27 years old, Sanchez has thrown 477 MLB innings, resulting in a 3.74 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and 1.75 K/BB rate. He broke onto the scene as a rookie in 2006 with 114.1 IPs, a 2.83 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. However his 2006 BABip (.240) and strand rate (79%) came back to normal, he got a few injuries and, subsequently, disappeared from most fantasy teams.

While he’ll probably never be that pitcher again, he has been improving. His line drive rate was 27.3% in 2008, then 20.4% in ’09 and 16.8% last year. He’s getting more ground balls, and posting better HR/FB rates (although last year’s was lower than it will be in 2011). Last year he also got batters to swing at more balls out of the strike zone and (perhaps related) walked less batters than typical.

Even with bounce backs in his HR/FB rate, walk rate and contact rates, Sanchez will be a sub-4.00 ERA guy quite easily. If he maintains his K-rate you are looking at 170 Ks dirt cheap.

I think there is considerable value in Sanchez – the type of guy you can get in the last couple of rounds of your draft who will be on your staff all year. Certainly, I’d rather have him than J.A. Happ, Derek Holland, John Lackey, Jon Niese, Tim Hudson, etc.

This is why you go heavy on hitters early in the draft – Sanchez will kill it for you and perform like a top 18 rounder at least.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

______________________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Jay Bruce

Jay Bruce – Current ADP 75; 20th OF – My Rank: 47th hitter; 21st OF

Most recently, I’ve compared Jay Bruce’s early career to Colby Rasmus, without exactly talking about Bruce and his 2011 prospects. Thankfully, TwitterStar @Dorman06 asked me to provide my thoughts on him relative to his ADP.

It seems like I’m with the crowd on this one – and perhaps a tad lower on him relative to other positions.

In three somewhat up-and-down years, Bruce has averaged 119 games, 63 runs, 23 HRs, 60 RBIs and a .257 average. Clearly, in going .281/.352/.517 with 25 bombs in 2010, Bruce eclipsed his career norms and took a massive step forward to being the long-term power threat everyone thought he could be.

Bruce will be 24 in April, so there is still a ways to go, and you have to like his escalating power numbers. Of course, that’s cheating a little as 2010 was the first time he played more than 108 games – so his ISO was actually a bit lower than 2009.

So did Bruce take a step forward in 2010? And, if so will he continue?

I’ll tackle the first question first with an equivocating answer: sort of. He struck out a bit more than he did in 2009, however his 26.7% mark is not much different than previous years or in the minors when he was hitting .300+. So I’m not too worried about his Ks. He did have a slightly improved BABip (.334) as it had never touched .300 before. But that too is in line with his minor league track record and he did post a decent line drive percentage and cut down on fly balls. In summation, Bruce took a slight step forward, the kind of step forward a 23-year-old on his way to stardom should take.

So what does this mean for 2011? I think he’ll take another slight step forward, so I’m going to temper expectations somewhat. I believe he’s a .280 hitter – no worries there. However until he converts more of his fly balls intro homers, I’m concerned he won’t reach 30 HRs. I think he’ll hit around 25-27 and add a few more RBIs to his 2010 total.

In all, while some think Bruce is due for a break out (and he has gone as high as 50th overall in some drafts), I see 2010 as closer to his 2011 output. That’s still quite a fine player.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

___________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Hunter Pence

Hunter Pence – Current ADP 81; 21st OF – My Rank: 24th hitter; 11th OF

Collin Hager did a phenomenal job comparing Pence to Shin-Soo Choo. I want to do an equally awesome job comparing Pence to where he is going in drafts – and yes, I’ll play the dis-r-e-s-p-e-c-t card.

In his first three full years in the majors, Pence has averaged 25 HRs, 82 runs, 82 RBIs, and 14 SBs a year. He has also hit .278 over that span, but it is bogged down by a .269 average in 2008. He has hit .282 on the dot the last two years (also 25 HRs on the dot the last three).

Furthermore, Pence seems to be maturing as a base runner as he turns 28. After going a combined 25/46 in SB attempts in 2008 and 2009, he went 18/27 last year. Consequently, he’s a lock for over 15 SBs, with upside to 20.

Pence tied for 27th in the majors in runs scored last year, 28th in RBIs, 41st in HRs, 52nd in average and 39th in stolen bases. He just puts up consistent, top 50, numbers across the board, year in year out.

In the early rounds, you can’t miss on a pick and you need to accumulate a smorgasbord of statistics – that is Pence. I’m not sure why the likes of Curtis Granderson, BJ Upton, Alex Rios and several other guys are being selected well before him.

I’d happily grab Pence as a top tier #2 OF in the 6th round!

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

___________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Ian Kennedy

Ian Kennedy – Current ADP 215; 63rd SP – My Rank: 50th pitcher; 43rd SP

I remember there being a ton of buzz around Ian Kennedy, but I can’t exactly pinpoint when. Was it after 2007 when he pitched 19 innings in the majors and gave up just six runs? Was it that combined with his AAA numbers that year (2.08 ERA, 8.8 K/9 in 34.2 IPs)?

He did come back in 2008 to post fine AAA numbers, but bombed out in just 39.2 innings in the majors (of course he had a .333 BABip and 57.1% strand rate).

Then he got injured and then the Yankees traded him to get Curtis Granderson, basically.

The Diamondbacks took little time in getting Kennedy to the majors. In fact they didn’t let him pitch at all in the minors and he rewarded the organization by throwing 194 innings, posting a 7.79 K/9 rate, a 3.80 ERA and 4.33/4.28 FIP/xFIP. Was he the benefit of a few good bounces? Yes, he had a .256 BABip and 75.5% strand rate.

Still, I think there is improvement coming in his K/9 rate, meaning we could see 175+ Ks in 2011 with Kennedy. He did get batters to swing at 27.8% of his pitches outside of the zone and increased his first strike percentage.

While I don’t think he’ll match his 3.66 ERA from last year, I don’t think he’ll be far from it. If he increases the Ks a little, it’ll more than make-up for a slight regression in runs allowed.

In short, he will likely be worth a selection in the 150-180 range, yet is going 30-60 picks later. I like him more than Jonathan Niese, Jaime Garcia, Jair Jurrjens, Jorge de la Rosa, Phil Hughes, Brian Matusz, and a whole host of other pitchers going ahead of him. I see his 2011 being a lot like John Danks (Kennedy will probably throw fewer innings, but get comparable Ks).

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

___________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Joe Mauer

Joe Mauer – Current ADP 19; 1st Catcher – My Rank: 44; #1 Catcher

Clearly, Mauer is the consensus top spot at the catcher position (although I believe Posey is nipping at his heels). However, where that #1 overall catcher should go is a matter of contention as I have Mauer and most catchers well below their ADP.

Mauer tied for 39th in runs scored with 88; tied for 177th in HRs with just nine; 72nd for RBIs with 75; and fourth in average.

He lead catchers in runs by 25, was tied for 14th in HRs, had the third most RBIs and the best batting average.

Mauer was far and away the most consistent performer at catcher. However, in 50 fewer at bats, Mike Napoli scored just 28 fewer runs and had seven less RBIs – yet he out-homered Mauer by 15. Sure his batting average is light years away from Mauer, but he is getting picked a full 100 slots later. Would you rather have Joe Mauer and Bobby Abreu or Napoli and Matt Holliday?

I’ll take the second pairing all the way to the bank. I’m also a tad concerned about Mauer’s durability. Over the last three years, he has appeared in 140 games on average (a ton for a catcher).

Lastly, I think 2009 was more the outlier of his career than 2010. In 2009, his BABip was .373 (the year before: .342, 2010: .348). In 2009 his HR/FB rate was a ridiculous 20.4%, the year before: 6.5%, the year after: 6.7%.

Quite simply, Mauer is not a .360 hitter with 20 HRs. He is a .330-.340 hitter with 10 – 15 HRs – and that might be generous. Furthermore, it’s incredibly unlikely that he’ll be more than an 85 run scored or producer given he’ll play at least 20 games less than regulars.

While catcher is scarce, you can pair guys like Napoli with proven top 25 hitters and not miss a beat. Only once has Mauer been worth his price tag and all evidence points to that being an incredible aberration.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

_____________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).