Lock, Stock and Taking Stock, Part 3 for Razzball

Lock, Stock and Taking Stock, Part 3

http://razzball.com/lock-stock-and-taking-stock-part-3/

 

 

h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

‘Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Luke Hughes – five hits, four homers and 10 RBIs over the last seven days will get you noticed. However, the Australian has not really been good in the majors or the minors ever, certainly not in the last few years. He’ll swing and miss north of 10% of the time and strike out well over 20% of the time, but he can take a walk, so he’ll post an OBP that barely scrapes over the .300 line despite a horrid average. He has shown flashes of power in the past (hitting 18 HRs across AA and AAA in 2008) but he’s by no means an elite or even decent power source. Couple that with a lack of batting average, speed or on base ability, and Hughes is not much of an option. Maybe in a 20-teamer or AL-only given he qualifies at multiple positions, but that’s it.

Cliff Pennington – Pennington has been a top five SS over the last 30 days. All he did over the last seven was outpace the position by going 13/31 with four steals. There are only a handful of shortstops I’d rather have than him the rest of the way: Reyes, Tulo, Asdrubal, and Hardy. You can make arguments for Castro, Andrus, and Peralta, but I’m taking Pennington.

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before the Season Even Starts: Aaron Hill

Aaron Hill – Current ADP 163 – My Rank: 108th Hitter; 15th Second baseman

There was really no way Hill could replicate his impressive 2009 campaign. Coming off a concussion and completely under the radar, Hill posted a .286/.330/.499 line with 36 HRs. His HR/FB% sat at 14.9% — by far the highest he had ever posted.

So, what happened in 2010? Well his line drive percentage plummeted (from a career mark of 18.5% to 10.6%), his HR/FB% came back to earth at 10.8% and his average on balls in play (.198) was about as lucky as the cooler.

Still, Aaron Hill is more the 2009 version than the 2010 version – but how much more is the question. If you average out the two seasons, you get a guy with 31 HRs and a .250/.304/.453 line. That strikes me as a tad low on the ratio side of things, but a smidge high on the gross power number.

Unfortunately, I’d think you’d rather have a .250 hitting second basemen with 30+ HRs, then the .260 hitter with just 20-25 HRs that I think Hill will be in 2011. Basically, his slash line will come back some, but I don’t see him coming all that close to 30 HRs. In addition, given his poor OBP, he likely won’t come near the 100 runs he scored in 2009.

Aaron Hill.2011 looks like a 25 HR guy with 70 Runs/RBIs and a .260 average. That’s not useless, but I’m probably not taking him in the 16^th round or so – he strikes me as more of a 20^th round type of value.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

___________________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discreetly of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

I might have been a little late to the Twitter party, and might still think it is kind-of-sort-of stupid, but there is no denying the utility of the thing. People (hotties), like Katy Perry and Eliza Dushku have active and interesting Twitter handles. In fact, Katy Perry “used Twitter to announce [her] album release” yesterday morning.

Quite simply, you learn stuff on Twitter before others who look to mainstream media outlets. You don’t even have to take part, just think of it as your sports news fix. It’s where I learned Brandon Lyon was the latest Houston closer, that AROD was going on the DL, that Joe Nathan was out for the year, that Favre was retiring and then unretiring, that Sidney Rice just had surgery, etc.. Really, you learn news there before your league mates. All you have to do is get a generic handle and follow me (https://twitter.com/h2h_Corner). I pass along all fantasy baseball and football information I can.

Ok, that was completely self-serving – well somewhat, at least. Anyway, what I want to do with the rest of the column is pass along some players who will help you get into the play-offs and dominate in head-to-head leagues.  As always, if there is a player I missed that you have a question about, post a comment (or hit me up on Twitter).

‘Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Omar Infante – The great Rob Neyer outlines a case where Infante might win the batting title. In so doing, Infante might give fantasy owners a similar stretch as Freddy Sanchez did in 2006. Certainly Infante’s last seven days (.452 AVG, eight runs and three HRs) pour gasoline on the fire. Still, there is nothing in the 28-year-old’s career to suggest he is anything other than a light hitting utility player capable, but not assured, of batting around .300. Enjoy the surge while it lasts, but don’t count on it.

Lyle Overbay – Overbay has been on an RBI bender over the last seven days (he has 10 of them!). Still, the writing is on the wall and it is pretty clear Overbay is toward the end of his career. He does get great opportunities for as long as he mans first base for the Blue Jays, but he might not get consistent playing time down the stretch. If he has some decent match-ups in a given week, feel free to roll with him, otherwise, unless you are in dire need of RBIs, feel free to ignore the Bay.

Gregor Blanco and Wilson Betemit – See last week’s Royals binge. Not much else to say here, except Blanco keeps swiping bags Willie Mays Hayes-style and Betemit keeps hitting ropes like I thought he would back in 2003.

Gaby Sanchez – Early in the season, I predicted Sanchez would approach 20 HRs and be as valuable as James Loney. (I also linked to awesome photos of Katy Perry, Eliza Dushku, Rachel Billson and Allison Brie – different links than those). Well technically Sanchez is ranked higher and has hit more HRs and posted a better average. Seven-day stretches like Sanchez had recently had (two HRs, nine RBIs and a .333 AVG) make him a far better option than Loney from now until the end of the year.

Brandon Inge – recently, I tweeted with @fakebaseball (a tremendous follow for any baseball fan) about possible AROD replacements. I think a decent alternative is Inge, who has been smacking the ball around since coming off the DL (last seven days: .429 AVG, five runs and six RBIs). He will never bat that high, but has the potential to hit some HRs and scoop up some Miguel Cabreras.

Roger Bernadina – Did you know Roger Bernadina and James Loney have the same number of HRs (eight) this season? Crazy eh? Well Bernadina is trying his best to get your attention – over the last seven days, he stole two bases, hit one HR and scored four runs. He has a couple of 40+ steal seasons in the minors, which makes him an attractive free agent addition from the waiver wire for those in the need of speed.

Josh Bell – It’s always fun for me when I get to talk about young Orioles with promise. It’s even more fun to watch a young blue-chip prospect smack two HRs off of Cliff Lee. In fact, over the last seven days, Bell has the two HRs, five RBIs and a .333 AVG. Bell, a switch-hitter, hasn’t really flashed much power from the right side, so he shouldn’t be used against lefty starters. Still, if you’re in a deep league and are chasing some upside, Bell is a decent add at third base.

Armando Galarraga – Galarraga isn’t my favorite kind of pitcher (just 5.8 K/9), but he will get some starts against the most woeful line-ups the AL has to offer (Kansas City and Cleveland). He should be a pretty safe deploy in those outings (over the last seven days, he started against Cleveland and went seven IPs without allowing a run, struck out eight batters and posted a 0.43 WHIP). He gets Kansas City today.

Rich Harden – Don’t blink, or you’ll miss Rich Harden’s latest attempt to stay off the disabled list. In his first start back, Harden went 6.2 no-run innings and posted a 0.75 WHIP. He also fanned six batters. Harden is always a good type to have on your bench in case you are losing ratios and trying to make a run at Ks. He’ll hurt your WHIP, typically, but the Ks will, generally, be there.

Joe Blanton – Blanton could not have found his groove any faster for the Phillies. Over the last seven days, in 13.1 IPs, Blanton struck out 16 batters and posted a 2.02 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He has been successful in the past and has been pretty unlucky this year (.336 BAbip). He actually has a FIP of 4.28 – there might be far more good outings down the stretch than bad.

Then you’re cold…then you’re no…then you’re out…then you’re down

Jered Weaver – Jered Weaver always reminds me of three things: The Scout, the Great Earl Weaver and this scene. His last seven days must have reminded owners of a nightmare however (11 IPs, seven Ks and an 8.18 ERA and 1.64 WHIP). While his K/9 rate has clearly spiked this season (9.78 compared to 7.82 for his career), there really aren’t any underlying statistics to say his performance is absurdly lucky. His FIP (3.31) is right in line with his ERA (3.21), his BAbip is right around .300 and he has a slightly lucky strand rate (75.9%). Basically he had a couple of rough road outings and should be fine going forward.

Barry Zito – I must have mentioned a dozen times that Zito was prime for a fall. So shame on you if you were stuck with him over the last seven days (8.2 IPs, three Ks, 9.35 ERA and 2.08 WHIP). His K/9 rate has actually dropped from 7.22 last year to 6.57 this year. In addition he has a .282 BAbip and a 76.1% strand rate. He’s been a tad lucky which is why his FIP (4.13) is a decent amount higher than his ERA (3.75). All of this is by way of saying that you should be very careful with the way you use him going forward.

Tim Hudson – It appears some of Tim Hudson’s luck has run out (last seven days: 13 IPs, seven Ks, a 4.15 ERA and 1.38 WHIP). Quite frankly, Hudson’s ratios have been incredibly lucky so far this season. He has a .239 BAbip and 83.5% strand rate. In fact his FIP (3.89) is 1.6 points higher than his ERA (2.28). While Hudson is clearly not a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher, he is someone who can pitch in the 3.50-4.00 range and win some ball games – just be careful when he faces some of the more imposing line-ups in the NL.

Adam Lind – Did Jose Bautista somehow zap all of Adam Lind’s and Aaron Hill’s (more on him below) power? No one really thought Lind would repeat last season’s exploits, but he seemed a lock for 25+ HRs. Unfortunately, he has continued his miserably unsuccessful season over the last seven days (.067 AVG). At this point, if you have held onto him (he is 69% owned), it might be time to test the free agent pool. Just go with the latest hot hand – it’ll be much more worth your time than Lind.

Aaron Hill – Yucky, Aaron Hill’s 2010 campaign has been one to forget, yet people are still using him (76% owned) through the rough stretches (.053 AVG over the last seven days). Sure, second base is deep, but Omar Infante does qualify there. At the least, Infante won’t prohibit you from competing in AVG from week-to-week.

All stats as of noon on August 24, 2010.

FB101’s 411: Be sure you know how to judge a hot streak. Omar Infante, Gaby Sanchez, Gregor Blanco, Joe Blanton, and Rich Harden make good adds. Keep your eye on Josh Bell, Armando Galarraga, Roger Bernadina, Brandon Inge, and Wilson Betemit. You are allowed to sort of give up on Adam Lind and Aaron Hill.

h2h_Corner on Twitter

h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

Much like Avril Lavigne is “no pushover. [She’s] proactive,” Katy Perry (fellow proactive spokeswoman) subscribes to the “no pain, no gain” mantra.

h2h Corner ~ Team Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays have scored more runs than the Rays (and every other American League team not nicknamed the Bronx Bombers). The Blue Jays have the most extra base hits – 35 more than the Red Sox, who have the second most. The Blue Jays have 16 more HRs than the second place team (also the Red Sox). The Blue Jays have the most RBIs. While the average (fourth to last) and OBP (third to last) aren’t good, they have been four category dominators.

h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: Ben Zobrist, Asdrubal Cabrera, Aaron Hill?

As noted previously, Ben Zobrist is all over the KTDs and my rankings. Part of me thinks it is because of his awesome (nick)name. Another part of me thinks it is because I went to pick him up in my deep 20-team expert league, but instead went with Micah Hoffpauir. That was a poor decision.

h2h Corner ~ The Great Trade Debate

You know how borderline trades can ruin leagues and sometimes friendships? I don’t think I have to tell you. That’s why Fantasy Baseball 101 created the Trade Mediator Service. At its base, fantasy needs to be fun – when it starts to become a drag and people are personally attacking one another, then, well, it has ceased to become a game.

I want to highlight a situation and get my reader’s feedback.

A friend recently e-mailed me about a trade in his long-term keeper league, with great friends from college. It’s a shallow league (8) teams, with 30 roster spots. It is h2h, and 5×5 (they switch AVE for OBP — otherwise standard). There are no quirky roster move rules or anything.

The way they do keepers is you add two rounds to each drafted player for the next year. So Granderson in the 10th in 2009 will be an 8th round pick in 2010, if you so choose to keep him.

So recently, the last place team, which is out of the final play-off spot by 25 games, decided to trade Hanley Ramirez (not able to be kept), Cliff Lee (no reason to keep him), Jonathan Papelbon (no reason to keep him) and Manny Ramirez (no reason to keep him) for Jacoby Ellsbury (17th rounder next year, then 15th rounder, then 13th, etc.), Wandy Rodriguez (24th rounder next year, then 22nd, etc.) and a 6th round pick in next year’s draft to the first place team. The team getting the four players dropped Furcal and CJ Wilson.

This was days after the second-to-last-place team traded Alex Rodriguez (not able to be kept), CC Sabathia (not able to be kept) and Joe Nathan (no reason to keep him) for Matt Kemp (seventh rounder next year, 5th rounder in 2011) and Aaron Hill (24th rounder, then 22nd, etc.).

So what say you loyal readers about the trades? It’s always fun to politely debate (eh?).

Also, sorry for my sporadic writing lately – I know you miss your Katy Perry All-stars, Back to the Future Previews and Red Light Districts. I’ve been moving and Verizon is really killing me with the no Internet thing (does anyone have an in with them?). I’ll be steadier soon (then I’ll be gone for two weeks). Sorry – I appreciate my readers!

h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop (V)?

Time for the latest edition of the game show that is sweeping America like Who Wants to be a Millionaire did back in 1999, which was the year of Ivan Rodriguez, the New York Yankees and Livin’ La Vida Loca. You guessed it, Keep Trade or Drop (KTD).

KTDs so far:
KTD.1 (Kelly Johnson, Alexei Ramirez, or Robinson Cano & Matt Kemp, Alex Rios or Jason Bay & Gil Meche, Derek Lowe or Justin Verlander).
KTD.II (Jay Bruce, Andre Ethier, or Hunter Pence & Jonathan Paplebon, Francisco Rodriguez, or Mariano Rivera & Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira or Lance Berkman).
KTD.III (Bobby Abreu, Raul Ibanez or Pat Burrell).
KTD.IV (Shane Victorino, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford)

We are welcoming two new guys to the game, Alex Zelvin, Nate Grimes, and Kevin Morris. Feel free to pick their ideas apart as well as mine!

Emilio Bonifacio, Aaron Hill, or Orlando Hudson?

Me (a national businessman):
I’m keeping Aaron Hill. I paid $1 for him in my 20-team ROTO league and he has almost made up for the fact that J.J. Hardy and Mike Aviles suck. I don’t think the power numbers are an aberration. At age 25, in 2007, Hill hit 17 HRs. His 162-game average, which is buoyed by his hot start this year, is 32 HRs. He certainly wont hit that many, but somewhere between 17 and 32 seems right. That’s not bad. I’m trading a player who also got his start in Toronto, Orlando Hudson. He just isn’t all that exceptional offensively. He averages 13 HRs per 162 games, with just eight SBs. Still, he could score 80-100 runs in the Dodgers lineup and knock in 60-80 with a .300 batting average, so he has some value. That is decent but if we’re at the bottom of the barrel, I’d prefer someone who excels in a category. Plus O-Dog will get you the most in a trade, try to sell his SBs if you can. I’ve no love for Emilio Bonifacio. He is a one-trick pony. You can get cheap steals in a lot of places, so I’m dropping him.

Alex Zelvin (follow his updates on Draftbug, Draftbug Millionaire and Twitter):
Aaron Hill – Drop. He was terrific in 2007, but it was so far out of line with anything he had done before, or anything he did in 2008 that it has to be viewed as a fluke until he can approach it again. Except in deep leagues he has very little value, so drop him unless you’re weak at second base.
Emilio Bonifacio – Trade. If you fail to trade him within a few days, drop him. He’s your typical cheap speed. Except he’s got 30 SB speed, not 50+ SB speed. Offensively he plays like a shortstop from the 70s, but he’s now playing third base. It would be a surprise if he can hold a starting job in the majors for any substantial amount of time.
Orlando Hudson – Keep. He’s probably a little past his prime, but he’s still pretty solid in all categories.

Kevin Morris (attorney):
Keep: Aaron Hill. While I’m not confident that the Jays offense will keep up the pace it set at the opening of this season, Hill had a good year in 2007 and comes with the promise that accompanies a former 1st round pick. Yet, I’m not sure, even with his hot start that people are really too in tune with what goes on up there in Toronto and he suffers from the anonymity that comes with missing the majority of last season. Thus, I think his trade value is weaker than the better known Hudson even though I think Hill projects to have the better season as discussed below. Then again, Hill could be a hard slide into second away from missing the year with his post concussion syndrome so I wouldn’t blame you if you stuck with the O-Dog.
Trade: Orlando Hudson. You gotta love the O-Dog or anyone with a nickname really. However, the O-Dog has built his notoriety in large part on his defense which doesn’t count for squat in fantasy. Does make him fun to watch though. I’d try to bank on someone being excited by the name and his hot start and giving up a little more than his offensive numbers warrant. In my mind, Hill projects to exceed Hudson’s totals in HR, RBI and R’s while lagging behind in OBP and slightly in steals. Hudson has proven to be fairly durable over the years and Hill’s post concussion syndrome is worrisome but I’d take my chances and see what I can get for Hudson’s cache.
Drop: Emilio Bonifacio. Hanley Ramirez says he’s the fastest player he’s ever seen. That’s nice. While I may not be running from Emilio at quite the pace he sets from the batter’s box to first, I don’t like the numbers that have been declining precipitously ever since his Opening Day explosion. He also hasn’t used that speed to swipe a bag in his last ten games either. We don’t have a lot of history to use with Mr. Bonifacio so I’m going to say Opening Day was an anomaly and challenge him to make this decision catch up with me. (You notice all those speed references? Awesome, right? Thank you, Thank you very much.)

Chris Olson (an international businessman):
Keep – Orlando Hudson – O-Dog can still play. I feel he’s hungry given that he stuck around so long on the market – he wants to prove himself. Plus he’s in the best lineup in the NL. Torre trusts vets and adding him to the core of Manny, Kemp, Loney and Martin will pay dividends. As the oldest of these guys though injury could be a concern. Trade – Bonifacio – I’m sure he’ll get the most “Drop” votes b/c he’s an unproven commodity, but trade the guy soon. Each year there’s the ONE guy with a blistering start that nobody really drafted. Combine this with the fact that there’s always ONE guy in your league who has to have the “it” player (usually me) or the ONE guy in your league who is a total moron (also usually me) and you can turn him into something crazy, sexy, cool. Drop – Aaron Hill – You MIGHT say I’m doing this because, as an Orioles fan, I hate all other AL East teams. You MIGHT say I’m doing this because, as a Tulane graduate, I hate all things LSU. You MIGHT say that I’m doing this because, as an internet reader, I hate all of the Roberto Alomar comparisons. You MIGHT even say that, as an American, I hate all things Canadian. While all of those things are true, the reason I’d drop Hill is because I don’t like his injury risk. Messing around with concussions is no laughing matter. Add that to the knee issue and you’ve got yourself a stew…a stew of trouble.

Andrew Bloom (a national businessman):
Keep- Hill– hitting 2nd in an underrated TOR lineup, Hill has always shown some pop, is a former first round pick, and his numbers have improved every year since his first, sans his injury plagued 2008.
Trade- Hudson– a solid player but slightly less consistent than Hill. Had some nice years in ARZ but isn’t coming off a great season. His value could not be any higher right now so a great time to trade him. I keep Hill over Hudson mostly based on the age/upside difference.
Drop-Bonifacio– great first week of the season but has hit a serious wall since then. Should still be productive on top of a good FLA lineup but needs to be more consistent to merit keeping and has no track record to prove he is capable of doing so.

Dan Harrow (studying to be an attorney):
I’m going to keep Hill, trade Bonifacio, and drop Hudson. Honestly I could picture trading any of these guys. I think at this early going, they are all performing above their heads. However, Bonifacio has the most buzz and scores the SBs that people covet from their middle infielders, so he may have the best trade value. Better trade him quick; however, as his value is dropping as we speak. I think Aaron Hill is the most talented hitter of the group. He is younger than Hudson, and has a higher ceiling. Neither Hill nor Hudson will steal many bases, but they both should give you a solid average with Hill contributing more power. Hill is just entering his prime while Hudson is just leaving it, so I’ll take his power and potential over Hudson.

Nate Grimes:
Emilio Bonifacio– Trade if you can. Send owners wacky clips of his first week, and keep sending till they wear down and accept. Really though, drop him. HE IS WHO WE THOUGHT HE WAS or something like that. If you want to feel better about leaving him behind, think about the fact that he has never hit one out of the park in the majors. For a guy who strikes out more than twice as much as he walks, I am looking for something more.
Aaron Hill– Keep. Maybe it is time I have spent with my Fisher Cats Eastern League Championship card set, and maybe it is the fact that he has a solid spot at #2 in that uninspiring lineup. Doesn’t hurt that he can hit inside-the-parkers too.
Orlando Hudson– Trade. Does name recognition count in your league? Name recognition in the most generous sense. Like, “I think I once met someone named Orlando” type. No? Maybe your league mates saw his cycle on SportsCenter? Come on, he is not all that bad. He gets on base (sort of), and hitting in front of Manny, Ethier, and Kemp has to be worth something in trade? No again? Well, you tried.

h2h_Corner on Twitter
Fantasy Baseball 101 RSS Feed