Posts Tagged ‘adp’

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Pablo Sandoval

Pablo Sandoval – Current ADP 125; 12th 3b – My Rank: 115th hitter; 15th 3b

Another twitter nomination! Sandoval confounded owners in 2010 after posting an incredibly good 152 game appearance in 2009.

Given he only has 2+ years of MLB experience, it’s a bit difficult to parse whether 2009 or 2010 is closer to the real Sandoval.

He did have a, perhaps high, .350 BABip in 2009 (but he also did in 154 MLB plate appearances in 2008 and similar numbers in the minors). So was his .291 mark in 2010 an aberration? I think it is – his line drive percentage, ground ball percentages, etc. are all in line with his major league track record. Consequently, I think he can bounce back to a .300 hitter (+/- .010), which is pretty nice.

However, the other problem Sandoval had in 2010 was a decline in ISO from .226 in 2009 to just .184 last year. He hit 12 less HRs and halved his 2010 HR/FB rate. I’m going to split the difference on 2009/2010 and give him an ISO near .180 or so. If he gets 600 or so ABs, that should result in 16-20 HRs.

Consequently, Sandoval looks to be a .300 hitting third baseman with moderate pop. Think of him as a Martin Prado-lite with fewer runs and more risk in batting average. He will likely out-RBI and –homer Prado though it could be closer than you think.

I could see Sandoval passing Chase Headley, Michael Cuddyer, and Scott Rolen in my rankings, but am not sure he has top 10 upside. I think he is being a tad overvalued in drafts and would much rather secure a top flight third basemen or wait and pick up the scraps. Sandoval’s upside is not really worth a 10 – 12 round price tag.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Jhoulys Chacin

Jhoulys Chacin – Current ADP 213; 67th SP– My Rank: 72nd pitcher; #58 SP

Maybe I’m not reading enough stuff, but I haven’t heard a lot of chatter about the Rockies starting rotation, specifically Jhoulys Chacin. In the past, I’ve been huge fans of Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge de la Rosa.

In his first real taste of the majors last year, Chacin pitched 137.1 innings and threw up a 9.04 K/9 rate, a 3.28 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.

Now that K/9 rate might be a tad high as the highest he posted in the minors was 8.58 in 35.2 innings in AAA last year (when he was repeating the level). So let’s pencil him in for a K-rate around 8.15 – and this is being extremely cautious. If he achieves this (which I think he will easily) and throws 175 innings, he’s a lock for about 160 Ks.

If you add his wholly reasonable 3.75 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, you’ve got the makings of a very nice pitcher. I hate to keep doing this, but most projections have Trevor Cahill at around a 3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 5.40 K/9 rate (130 Ks or so). So who would you rather have? I’d take Chacin without much thought.

I’m kind of shocked Chacin is going toward the end of most drafts – I’d rather have him than Derek Holland (who I love), Kevin Slowey, Jonathan Niese, Jaime Garcia, Jair Jurrjens, and Tim Hudson to name a few.

This year (as well as last year) you really should tap the Rockies for pitching – stay thirsty my friends?

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Anibal Sanchez

Anibal Sanchez – Current ADP 247; 69th SP – My Rank: 61st pitcher; 52nd SP

For awhile now, I’ve been on the Marlins bandwagon. Even looking back at some radio spots from the end of 2010, I thought the Marlins could do some nice things in 2011, especially with the likes of Michael Stanton, LoMo, Josh Johnson, Nolasco, Gaby Sanchez, etc. I didn’t like the Uggla trade, but hasn’t stopped me from liking them.

One reason I like the Marlins is the depth of their starting pitching staff, which includes the completely overlooked Anibal Sanchez. Just 27 years old, Sanchez has thrown 477 MLB innings, resulting in a 3.74 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and 1.75 K/BB rate. He broke onto the scene as a rookie in 2006 with 114.1 IPs, a 2.83 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. However his 2006 BABip (.240) and strand rate (79%) came back to normal, he got a few injuries and, subsequently, disappeared from most fantasy teams.

While he’ll probably never be that pitcher again, he has been improving. His line drive rate was 27.3% in 2008, then 20.4% in ’09 and 16.8% last year. He’s getting more ground balls, and posting better HR/FB rates (although last year’s was lower than it will be in 2011). Last year he also got batters to swing at more balls out of the strike zone and (perhaps related) walked less batters than typical.

Even with bounce backs in his HR/FB rate, walk rate and contact rates, Sanchez will be a sub-4.00 ERA guy quite easily. If he maintains his K-rate you are looking at 170 Ks dirt cheap.

I think there is considerable value in Sanchez – the type of guy you can get in the last couple of rounds of your draft who will be on your staff all year. Certainly, I’d rather have him than J.A. Happ, Derek Holland, John Lackey, Jon Niese, Tim Hudson, etc.

This is why you go heavy on hitters early in the draft – Sanchez will kill it for you and perform like a top 18 rounder at least.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

______________________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Joe Mauer

Joe Mauer – Current ADP 19; 1st Catcher – My Rank: 44; #1 Catcher

Clearly, Mauer is the consensus top spot at the catcher position (although I believe Posey is nipping at his heels). However, where that #1 overall catcher should go is a matter of contention as I have Mauer and most catchers well below their ADP.

Mauer tied for 39th in runs scored with 88; tied for 177th in HRs with just nine; 72nd for RBIs with 75; and fourth in average.

He lead catchers in runs by 25, was tied for 14th in HRs, had the third most RBIs and the best batting average.

Mauer was far and away the most consistent performer at catcher. However, in 50 fewer at bats, Mike Napoli scored just 28 fewer runs and had seven less RBIs – yet he out-homered Mauer by 15. Sure his batting average is light years away from Mauer, but he is getting picked a full 100 slots later. Would you rather have Joe Mauer and Bobby Abreu or Napoli and Matt Holliday?

I’ll take the second pairing all the way to the bank. I’m also a tad concerned about Mauer’s durability. Over the last three years, he has appeared in 140 games on average (a ton for a catcher).

Lastly, I think 2009 was more the outlier of his career than 2010. In 2009, his BABip was .373 (the year before: .342, 2010: .348). In 2009 his HR/FB rate was a ridiculous 20.4%, the year before: 6.5%, the year after: 6.7%.

Quite simply, Mauer is not a .360 hitter with 20 HRs. He is a .330-.340 hitter with 10 – 15 HRs – and that might be generous. Furthermore, it’s incredibly unlikely that he’ll be more than an 85 run scored or producer given he’ll play at least 20 games less than regulars.

While catcher is scarce, you can pair guys like Napoli with proven top 25 hitters and not miss a beat. Only once has Mauer been worth his price tag and all evidence points to that being an incredible aberration.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

_____________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Nick Swisher

Nick Swisher – Current ADP 121; 33rd OF – My Rank: 54th hitter; 25th OF

This is where I get to claim that I don’t have an unnaturally negative bias of the New York Yankees because of a 12-year-old boy.

Swisher has hit 29 HRs on the nose for the Yankees the last two seasons. He also hit .270 over his time with the club and added 86 RBIs/season and 88 runs/season.

Sure his .288 average last year (owing to a .335 BABip) is somewhat of a mirage – his career BABip is just .286. However his near 25% walk rate will continue to get him on base and scoring runs for a potent line-up. Even if he bats .260, he’ll post a .360 OBP, which means he’ll score 90 runs or so. He also has the potential to eclipse 30 HRs, with 25+ a lock and knock in 80 at minimum.

Give his ability to put up the counting stats, add in a decent amount of homeruns and not completely destroy your batting average, I’m surprised at how low he is going.

I’d much rather have Swisher than someone like Delmon Young who wont score nearly the same amount of runs and possibly hit 10 less HRs – ditto for Corey Hart and Nick Markakis and Vernon Wells and Alfonso Soriano. Swisher is a #2 OF for your squad who you can get at a #3’s price. As a 10th rounder, he provides a ton of value.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Brett Cecil

Brett Cecil – Current ADP Not Ranked; 105th+? SP – My Rank: 77th Pitcher; 62nd SP

Cecil made an inauspicious debut in 2009 with the Toronto Blue Jays, posting a 5.30 ERA and not showing the 9+ K/9 rate he flashed in his minor league career. Still, he was beset by a .338 BABip (it was never higher than .313 in the minors) and a 74% strand rate – oh and it was only 93 innings. So his xFIP was 4.68.

He followed up his 2009 with 172.2 innings in the majors in 2010. His BABip was .293, he struck out 6.1 batters per nine innings and his strand rate was right at 70%. So he had a 4.22 ERA and 4.32 FIP.

Cecil, only 24, seems ready to take a step forward in 2011. He lowered his line drive and HR/FB percentage last year. He also increased the amount of times batters swung at pitches outside the zone, lowered his contact rate and increased his swinging strike percentage.

In short, I see Cecil incredibly capable of throwing up an ERA that hovers around 4.00 +/- .15. I think he’ll continue to miss more bats and see his K-rate improve to around 7. I’ll give him 175 innings, so good for 140 Ks or so with a bit of upside. If he can maintain a walk rate under three free passes per nine innings, we’re looking at a WHIP between 1.30-1.35.

I can’t imagine his numbers will be any worse than someone like Carl Pavano, Mike Pelfrey, and others. He could even outperform the likes of Wade Davis, Trevor Cahill and Tim Hudson. Certainly, if he is going undrafted in a lot of leagues, he’ll provide phenomenal value.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

_____________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Jimmy Rollins

Jimmy Rollins – Current ADP 40; 4th SS – My Rank: 112; 10th SS

Much like J-Lo, J-Roll has fallen hard. I use to love J-Roll, he (along with Matt Holliday and Grady Sizemore) helped me win my most emphatic championship. At one point, he was my favorite baseball player not on the Orioles. I have written eloquently about him.

However, that has to stop. I need to remain somewhat objective (even if it means praising Derek Jeter and Rivera).

Quite simply, things have not gone well for Rollins since his MVP season in 2007. His average has dropped from .296 to .277 to .250 to .243 (the last being in only 88 games). During that four-year trek to the dregs, his line drive percentage has tanked, his ground ball percentage has gone up, and his HR/FB rate has gone down.

I’d love to blame last year’s poor performance on injuries and BABip (it was .246); however, in 155 healthy-ish games in 2009, he posted a .251 BABip. Rollins has also started to swing at more balls outside of the zone than he did in his younger years; and consequently is seeing less balls thrown inside the strike zone. Still, by most metrics he remains a solid fielder, so his legs are still there – no small feat for a 32-year-old who has logged over 1,500 games (when you count the post season).

Unfortunately, no matter how hard I try, I can’t see Rollins getting back to that .275 hitter he was during his peak – and he has never taken any walks. So, at this point, there is very little AVG/OBP upside.

He might push 15-20 HRs and 25-30 SBs, but will likely rest on the low end of the spectrum for each.

Even though shortstop is incredibly shallow, you can make up his numbers with any sort of player – I prefer to take a Rafael Furcal and pair him with a decent back-up rather than spending a top 40 pick. In the 40s, you can get the likes of Andrew McCutcheon, Adam Dunn, Jose Bautista, Jayson Werth, Jason Heyward, etc. etc. etc.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

_____

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).