Posts Tagged ‘average draft position’

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Jay Bruce

Jay Bruce – Current ADP 75; 20th OF – My Rank: 47th hitter; 21st OF

Most recently, I’ve compared Jay Bruce’s early career to Colby Rasmus, without exactly talking about Bruce and his 2011 prospects. Thankfully, TwitterStar @Dorman06 asked me to provide my thoughts on him relative to his ADP.

It seems like I’m with the crowd on this one – and perhaps a tad lower on him relative to other positions.

In three somewhat up-and-down years, Bruce has averaged 119 games, 63 runs, 23 HRs, 60 RBIs and a .257 average. Clearly, in going .281/.352/.517 with 25 bombs in 2010, Bruce eclipsed his career norms and took a massive step forward to being the long-term power threat everyone thought he could be.

Bruce will be 24 in April, so there is still a ways to go, and you have to like his escalating power numbers. Of course, that’s cheating a little as 2010 was the first time he played more than 108 games – so his ISO was actually a bit lower than 2009.

So did Bruce take a step forward in 2010? And, if so will he continue?

I’ll tackle the first question first with an equivocating answer: sort of. He struck out a bit more than he did in 2009, however his 26.7% mark is not much different than previous years or in the minors when he was hitting .300+. So I’m not too worried about his Ks. He did have a slightly improved BABip (.334) as it had never touched .300 before. But that too is in line with his minor league track record and he did post a decent line drive percentage and cut down on fly balls. In summation, Bruce took a slight step forward, the kind of step forward a 23-year-old on his way to stardom should take.

So what does this mean for 2011? I think he’ll take another slight step forward, so I’m going to temper expectations somewhat. I believe he’s a .280 hitter – no worries there. However until he converts more of his fly balls intro homers, I’m concerned he won’t reach 30 HRs. I think he’ll hit around 25-27 and add a few more RBIs to his 2010 total.

In all, while some think Bruce is due for a break out (and he has gone as high as 50th overall in some drafts), I see 2010 as closer to his 2011 output. That’s still quite a fine player.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Hunter Pence

Hunter Pence – Current ADP 81; 21st OF – My Rank: 24th hitter; 11th OF

Collin Hager did a phenomenal job comparing Pence to Shin-Soo Choo. I want to do an equally awesome job comparing Pence to where he is going in drafts – and yes, I’ll play the dis-r-e-s-p-e-c-t card.

In his first three full years in the majors, Pence has averaged 25 HRs, 82 runs, 82 RBIs, and 14 SBs a year. He has also hit .278 over that span, but it is bogged down by a .269 average in 2008. He has hit .282 on the dot the last two years (also 25 HRs on the dot the last three).

Furthermore, Pence seems to be maturing as a base runner as he turns 28. After going a combined 25/46 in SB attempts in 2008 and 2009, he went 18/27 last year. Consequently, he’s a lock for over 15 SBs, with upside to 20.

Pence tied for 27th in the majors in runs scored last year, 28th in RBIs, 41st in HRs, 52nd in average and 39th in stolen bases. He just puts up consistent, top 50, numbers across the board, year in year out.

In the early rounds, you can’t miss on a pick and you need to accumulate a smorgasbord of statistics – that is Pence. I’m not sure why the likes of Curtis Granderson, BJ Upton, Alex Rios and several other guys are being selected well before him.

I’d happily grab Pence as a top tier #2 OF in the 6th round!

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Ian Kennedy

Ian Kennedy – Current ADP 215; 63rd SP – My Rank: 50th pitcher; 43rd SP

I remember there being a ton of buzz around Ian Kennedy, but I can’t exactly pinpoint when. Was it after 2007 when he pitched 19 innings in the majors and gave up just six runs? Was it that combined with his AAA numbers that year (2.08 ERA, 8.8 K/9 in 34.2 IPs)?

He did come back in 2008 to post fine AAA numbers, but bombed out in just 39.2 innings in the majors (of course he had a .333 BABip and 57.1% strand rate).

Then he got injured and then the Yankees traded him to get Curtis Granderson, basically.

The Diamondbacks took little time in getting Kennedy to the majors. In fact they didn’t let him pitch at all in the minors and he rewarded the organization by throwing 194 innings, posting a 7.79 K/9 rate, a 3.80 ERA and 4.33/4.28 FIP/xFIP. Was he the benefit of a few good bounces? Yes, he had a .256 BABip and 75.5% strand rate.

Still, I think there is improvement coming in his K/9 rate, meaning we could see 175+ Ks in 2011 with Kennedy. He did get batters to swing at 27.8% of his pitches outside of the zone and increased his first strike percentage.

While I don’t think he’ll match his 3.66 ERA from last year, I don’t think he’ll be far from it. If he increases the Ks a little, it’ll more than make-up for a slight regression in runs allowed.

In short, he will likely be worth a selection in the 150-180 range, yet is going 30-60 picks later. I like him more than Jonathan Niese, Jaime Garcia, Jair Jurrjens, Jorge de la Rosa, Phil Hughes, Brian Matusz, and a whole host of other pitchers going ahead of him. I see his 2011 being a lot like John Danks (Kennedy will probably throw fewer innings, but get comparable Ks).

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Joe Mauer

Joe Mauer – Current ADP 19; 1st Catcher – My Rank: 44; #1 Catcher

Clearly, Mauer is the consensus top spot at the catcher position (although I believe Posey is nipping at his heels). However, where that #1 overall catcher should go is a matter of contention as I have Mauer and most catchers well below their ADP.

Mauer tied for 39th in runs scored with 88; tied for 177th in HRs with just nine; 72nd for RBIs with 75; and fourth in average.

He lead catchers in runs by 25, was tied for 14th in HRs, had the third most RBIs and the best batting average.

Mauer was far and away the most consistent performer at catcher. However, in 50 fewer at bats, Mike Napoli scored just 28 fewer runs and had seven less RBIs – yet he out-homered Mauer by 15. Sure his batting average is light years away from Mauer, but he is getting picked a full 100 slots later. Would you rather have Joe Mauer and Bobby Abreu or Napoli and Matt Holliday?

I’ll take the second pairing all the way to the bank. I’m also a tad concerned about Mauer’s durability. Over the last three years, he has appeared in 140 games on average (a ton for a catcher).

Lastly, I think 2009 was more the outlier of his career than 2010. In 2009, his BABip was .373 (the year before: .342, 2010: .348). In 2009 his HR/FB rate was a ridiculous 20.4%, the year before: 6.5%, the year after: 6.7%.

Quite simply, Mauer is not a .360 hitter with 20 HRs. He is a .330-.340 hitter with 10 – 15 HRs – and that might be generous. Furthermore, it’s incredibly unlikely that he’ll be more than an 85 run scored or producer given he’ll play at least 20 games less than regulars.

While catcher is scarce, you can pair guys like Napoli with proven top 25 hitters and not miss a beat. Only once has Mauer been worth his price tag and all evidence points to that being an incredible aberration.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

_____________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Nick Swisher

Nick Swisher – Current ADP 121; 33rd OF – My Rank: 54th hitter; 25th OF

This is where I get to claim that I don’t have an unnaturally negative bias of the New York Yankees because of a 12-year-old boy.

Swisher has hit 29 HRs on the nose for the Yankees the last two seasons. He also hit .270 over his time with the club and added 86 RBIs/season and 88 runs/season.

Sure his .288 average last year (owing to a .335 BABip) is somewhat of a mirage – his career BABip is just .286. However his near 25% walk rate will continue to get him on base and scoring runs for a potent line-up. Even if he bats .260, he’ll post a .360 OBP, which means he’ll score 90 runs or so. He also has the potential to eclipse 30 HRs, with 25+ a lock and knock in 80 at minimum.

Give his ability to put up the counting stats, add in a decent amount of homeruns and not completely destroy your batting average, I’m surprised at how low he is going.

I’d much rather have Swisher than someone like Delmon Young who wont score nearly the same amount of runs and possibly hit 10 less HRs – ditto for Corey Hart and Nick Markakis and Vernon Wells and Alfonso Soriano. Swisher is a #2 OF for your squad who you can get at a #3’s price. As a 10th rounder, he provides a ton of value.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

__________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Brett Cecil

Brett Cecil – Current ADP Not Ranked; 105th+? SP – My Rank: 77th Pitcher; 62nd SP

Cecil made an inauspicious debut in 2009 with the Toronto Blue Jays, posting a 5.30 ERA and not showing the 9+ K/9 rate he flashed in his minor league career. Still, he was beset by a .338 BABip (it was never higher than .313 in the minors) and a 74% strand rate – oh and it was only 93 innings. So his xFIP was 4.68.

He followed up his 2009 with 172.2 innings in the majors in 2010. His BABip was .293, he struck out 6.1 batters per nine innings and his strand rate was right at 70%. So he had a 4.22 ERA and 4.32 FIP.

Cecil, only 24, seems ready to take a step forward in 2011. He lowered his line drive and HR/FB percentage last year. He also increased the amount of times batters swung at pitches outside the zone, lowered his contact rate and increased his swinging strike percentage.

In short, I see Cecil incredibly capable of throwing up an ERA that hovers around 4.00 +/- .15. I think he’ll continue to miss more bats and see his K-rate improve to around 7. I’ll give him 175 innings, so good for 140 Ks or so with a bit of upside. If he can maintain a walk rate under three free passes per nine innings, we’re looking at a WHIP between 1.30-1.35.

I can’t imagine his numbers will be any worse than someone like Carl Pavano, Mike Pelfrey, and others. He could even outperform the likes of Wade Davis, Trevor Cahill and Tim Hudson. Certainly, if he is going undrafted in a lot of leagues, he’ll provide phenomenal value.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

_____________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Jimmy Rollins

Jimmy Rollins – Current ADP 40; 4th SS – My Rank: 112; 10th SS

Much like J-Lo, J-Roll has fallen hard. I use to love J-Roll, he (along with Matt Holliday and Grady Sizemore) helped me win my most emphatic championship. At one point, he was my favorite baseball player not on the Orioles. I have written eloquently about him.

However, that has to stop. I need to remain somewhat objective (even if it means praising Derek Jeter and Rivera).

Quite simply, things have not gone well for Rollins since his MVP season in 2007. His average has dropped from .296 to .277 to .250 to .243 (the last being in only 88 games). During that four-year trek to the dregs, his line drive percentage has tanked, his ground ball percentage has gone up, and his HR/FB rate has gone down.

I’d love to blame last year’s poor performance on injuries and BABip (it was .246); however, in 155 healthy-ish games in 2009, he posted a .251 BABip. Rollins has also started to swing at more balls outside of the zone than he did in his younger years; and consequently is seeing less balls thrown inside the strike zone. Still, by most metrics he remains a solid fielder, so his legs are still there – no small feat for a 32-year-old who has logged over 1,500 games (when you count the post season).

Unfortunately, no matter how hard I try, I can’t see Rollins getting back to that .275 hitter he was during his peak – and he has never taken any walks. So, at this point, there is very little AVG/OBP upside.

He might push 15-20 HRs and 25-30 SBs, but will likely rest on the low end of the spectrum for each.

Even though shortstop is incredibly shallow, you can make up his numbers with any sort of player – I prefer to take a Rafael Furcal and pair him with a decent back-up rather than spending a top 40 pick. In the 40s, you can get the likes of Andrew McCutcheon, Adam Dunn, Jose Bautista, Jayson Werth, Jason Heyward, etc. etc. etc.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

_____

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Nelson Cruz

Nelson Cruz – Current ADP 33; 9th OF – My Rank: 22; 10th OF

Over the last two seasons, Cruz has averaged a .287/.351/.548 slash line with 28 HRs and 18 SBs in just 118 games/year. That’s silliness. Imagine if he could stay just a bit healthier.

And really – that’s the only question about Cruz – how many games he’ll play – and I’m not real sure anyone can predict that.

Still, even in a modest 130 games, he’s a 30-20 candidate with sublime ratios. I’m confident that he can deliver second round value playing in the amount of games a catcher would.

But, think of the upside. If he could stay healthy, he’d be a 40 HR/25 SB player. That nudges him up a round in my book – you can’t typically get first round upside that far from the top 15 picks. However Cruz (along with Justin Upton) provide that. If you can steal Cruz in the third round, you should be amply rewarded.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

_____

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Gio Gonzalez

Gio Gonzalez – Current ADP 178th; 49th SP – My Rank: 49th Pitcher; 42nd SP

I was on the Gio bandwagon hard last year and don’t see any real reason to jump off now.

Sure he benefited from an impressive A’s bullpen (78% strand rate) and had a little luck on balls put into play (.274 BABip – he did lower his line drive rate to 15.4%), but his FIP* was only 3.78 and his xFIP* rested at 4.18.

*From Fangraphs, Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a give time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) is a regressed version of FIP. It’s calculated exactly the same as FIP, except it replaces a pitcher’s homerun rate with the league-average rate (10.6% HR/FB) since pitcher homerun rates have been shown to be very unstable over time.

The real important thing about Gonzalez’s 2010 is that he posted a 7.4% HR/FB rate – something he had struggled to get into single digits throughout his professional career. The other surprising stat from his 2010: a 7.67 K/9 – a number much lower than most expected.

I think he will give up a handful more home runs, likely have his strand rate go down a tad (although the A’s bullpen again appears to be excellent) and post a BABip around .300. However, I think those will all be small regressions and he will get back to striking out a batter an inning.

Consequently, Gonzalez is a 4.00 ERA/1.35 WHIP guy with 200+ Ks. The more I think about it, the more he should be at least 10 spots higher and close in value to Jonathan Sanchez.

Sanchez, like Gonzalez, posted a banner 2010 year – Sanchez had a 9.54 K/9 rate, lowered his HR/FB rate to single digits and benefited from a fierce bullpen (79.5% strand rate) and a little luck on balls in play (.252 BABip). I see both guys putting up similar numbers – I do give the nod to Sanchez to post an ERA in the 3.75 range, but their WHIPs should be identical and both should hit around 210 Ks if they get to 200 IPs.

While I love Sanchez, I love Gonzalez and his price a little bit more.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

______________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Ike Davis

Ike Davis – Current ADP 202; 18th 1B – My Rank: 111th hitter; 20th 1B

This isn’t at all spurned by the fact that Ike Davis is my starting first baseman in a 20-team writer’s league – not at all. I swear

In reality, he was on the list before that draft, but who knows if I would have pulled his name today had I not selected him recently.

Still, I really wanted to investigate the first basemen further given his successful 2010 campaign (.264/.351/.440).

Unfortunately, his isolated power (a measure of a hitter’s raw power) was just .173 (first basemen averaged about .200 last year) – so he gave up power compared to the position. He did post far better ISOs in AAA last year and AA before that – but it was against weaker competition and in hitter-friendly ballparks.

Of course, he did manage 19 HRs and 33 doubles last year – so he’s not James Loney. From my research, most projection systems have him approaching the normal ISO for the position which should get him over the 20 HR hump. With a modest improvement in his BABip (somewhere closer to his minor league numbers), you’re looking at a guy with .280 average potential (although he will probably sit in the .270s) and a .360 OBP. In short, he should get on base enough and drive enough runners in.

I took Davis with the 240th pick in the 20-teamer, so his ADP is clearly fluctuating. I think I got good value in him, especially in this deep a league. It seems he’ll comfortably slide in the top 18-20 first basemen (especially if you throw out the catchers that qualify at first) with upside to be in the 12-15 range. Still, his moderate upside won’t win you your league, but he’ll be a steady source of runs/RBIs and 20 HRs or so. Think of him as pretty similar to Adam LaRoche with a smidge better AVG and more upside.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

___________

Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).