Bottom of the Ninth: Introducing the BS Meter for Razzball: http://razzball.com/bottom-of-the-ninth-introducing-the-bs-meter/. A historical look at blown saves and a run down of the closing positions for the White Sox, Cubs, Nationals, Indians, Orioles, Red Sox, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Mets, Royals and more! It includes roto and fantasy baseball analysis.
Posts Tagged ‘cardinals’
Yes, the decision was fated to benefit the Cardinals. As did Roy Halladay’s friendship with Chris Carpenter…or something like that.
Still, I can quibble with the whole “Rookie of the Year” candidate thing right? I mean he was as much a candidate as Ron Paul is for president in 2012.
Last I checked, the top NL rookies of the year were Buster Posey, Jason Heyward and Jaime Garcia.
Heck, among NL rookies, Freese’s 0.5 WAR was behind those above and Starlin Castro, Neil Walker, Ike Davis, Jose Tabata and Jonny Venters and tied with Gaby Sanchez.
Freese had a fine 2010, but appeared in just 70 games. His .296/.361/.765 foretold of future success if he could stay healthy. Good for him that a whole heaping lot of that success happened in the grandest stage of them all.
Baseball Daily Digest Radio with Joel Henard and Albert Lang taped from yesterday for your mind’s enjoyment. Download it and see if we got the future of the play-offs correct. Also, some prospects for you to check out in the Arizona Fall League and we slammed the Red Sox and other squads for being too reactionary.
Baseball Daily Digest Radio with Joel Henard and myself will Air at 7:00 PM ET
Be there or be lamer than lame….ice cold:
Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.
That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.
Austin Jackson – Action Jackson (Ajax for short) over the last seven days flashed 2010’s brilliance: 11/29 with a home, a steal and seven RBIs. That brought his yearly RBI total to…16. But no one owns him for those numbers. To date,Jackson is just 4/6 in SB attempts, after going 27/33 last season. Clearly his speed pace is way down, mostly do to his complete inability to get on base (.227 average, .284 OBP). Not surprisingly, his .396 BABip last year is being replaced by a somewhat more human .327. A large portion of that has to do with more ground and fly balls and less line drives. He is being pitched roughly the same as last year and isn’t swinging and missing more or making demonstrably less contact. Is the last seven days a sign of resurgence? Sort of, I think. He’s not this bad of a hitter; he’ll get to .260 with his typical seven percent walk rate (i.e., .315 OBP). He’ll get 22-25 steals. In a lot of leagues, that is useful.
Immanuel Kant, one of the craziest thinkers I’ve ever encounter (I hate the Critique of Pure Reason), created something called the categorical imperative. Basically, it was one tenet that would govern all actions. When you boil it down, Kant thought a person should only do something that everyone should be allowed to do, or in his words: “Act only according to that maxim whereby you can, at the same time, will that it should become a universal law.”
This got Kant into some sticky trouble when it comes to lying to save a life. The example goes: say someone runs into your house with a murderer hot on their heels. The polite murderer rings your doorbell and asks if the intended victim is inside. According to Kant’s morality, you have to respond that the person is inside because an act is moral not because of its consequences, but in and of itself. If you were to lie in this circumstance that would mean it was okay to lie in every instance of this circumstance, and, thusly, the soon-to-be murderer would know you were lying.
I’m not a big categorical imperative fan. I believe the outcome of actions should have a bearing on morality (and our rule of law, haphazard as it might be, somewhat reflects this, i.e., if you drive drunk and kill someone you get a higher penalty than simply driving drunk).
In my view, outcomes matter, I’m not as worried about how you get there. The same goes for fantasy baseball, especially head-to-head. All you have to do is win, it really doesn’t matter how. I routinely win h2h leagues with teams, that if it had been roto, would have finished in the middle of the pack.
At about this point in the year/week, you know what categories you are strong in. If Morneau zapped your power and there isn’t much to be had on the wire, it’s time to switch tactics. Look to gobble up speed demons – field an outfield of Jose Tabata, Juan Pierre and Michael Bourn and assure yourself of certain categories early in the week, and then try to focus on those you remain close in. If you go out to an early 8-2 lead in wins, it’s time to load up on relievers to massage those ratios and turn in some saves. Continue reading
Colby Rasmus – Current ADP 88; 22nd OF – My Rank: 57th hitter; 26th OF
However, I’m not quite sure the 24-year-old is ready to make that kind of leap.
That said, I do think he will outperform his current ADP – albeit slightly. I just don’t buy his career trajectory as something like CarGo’s (and seriously that was a once in a million years season).
Instead, Rasmus reminds me a lot more of Jay Bruce. At 21, Bruce showed all the promise in the world, hitting 21 HRs in just 108 games. However his sophomore campaign would not go as expected – he’d bat .223, battle injuries/demotions and appear in just 101 games. Of course a fair amount of bad luck (.221 BABip) played a part in that disappointing season.
Nevertheless, I see some similar warning signs with Rasmus – last season he had a .354 BABip – it was .282 the year before and never that far north of .300 in the minors.
In addition, in 2010, he didn’t hit anymore line drives, but did significantly increase his HR/FB% (from 9.4 to 14.8). Given those two things and a k-rate that will be north of 24%, I don’t think he has the chance to hit .280 or so, nor do I see an exceptional power upside.
I see Rasmus more as a .260 hitter with 20-25 HRs – i.e., a slightly better version of Bruce’s sophomore campaign – but short of what someone like Nick Swisher will provide.
The thing Rasmus has that Swisher doesn’t is a chance to steal 15-20 bases (which he did from 2006-2008 in the minors). Still, the conservative projector in me has him much closer to 15.
Basically, I’m in the odd position of both calling Rasmus a sleeper but trying to guard against a fair amount of hype that thinks he can be a top 20 performer.
Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).
Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).
While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.
Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.
Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).