Baseball Daily Digest Radio with Joel Henard and Albert Lang 08/22 by JoelHenard | Blog Talk Radio

Baseball Daily Digest Radio with Joel Henard and Albert Lang 08/22 by JoelHenard | Blog Talk Radio.

h2h Corner ~ I’m a Believer: June Edition

You’re hitting the tough part of the fantasy baseball season. At this point you’re really doubting your struggling stars and the urge to drop is high. But it’s still somewhat early. Patience isn’t always a virtue, but, in this instance, it is.

Players who will bounce back: Dan Uggla, Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, Alex Rios, Ubaldo Jimenez, Max Scherzer, Chris Carpenter, and Mat Latos.

Remember when I said Anibal Sanchez was a sleeper this year? 13^th in Ks right now!

I love James Shields (always own him), but he’s not the second best fantasy pitcher…right? Can’t be….

One thing I am certain of? Kyle Lohse is not the third best pitcher in fantasy (maybe on his team, but not in baseball).

I’m amazed by the Marlins – Johnson injured, Hanley not so good/injured. I thought they’d be good, but had you told me about their injury woes and the craptastic way Vazquez has pitched, I’d be shocked they were in the play-off hunt. That said, I still think the Braves run away with the Wild Card.

h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

‘Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Austin Jackson – Action Jackson (Ajax for short) over the last seven days flashed 2010’s brilliance: 11/29 with a home, a steal and seven RBIs. That brought his yearly RBI total to…16.  But no one owns him for those numbers. To date,Jackson is just 4/6 in SB attempts, after going 27/33 last season. Clearly his speed pace is way down, mostly do to his complete inability to get on base (.227 average, .284 OBP). Not surprisingly, his .396 BABip last year is being replaced by a somewhat more human .327. A large portion of that has to do with more ground and fly balls and less line drives. He is being pitched roughly the same as last year and isn’t swinging and missing more or making demonstrably less contact. Is the last seven days a sign of resurgence? Sort of, I think. He’s not this bad of a hitter; he’ll get to .260 with his typical seven percent walk rate (i.e., .315 OBP). He’ll get 22-25 steals. In a lot of leagues, that is useful.

h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Immanuel Kant, one of the craziest thinkers I’ve ever encounter (I hate the Critique of Pure Reason), created something called the categorical imperative. Basically, it was one tenet that would govern all actions. When you boil it down, Kant thought a person should only do something that everyone should be allowed to do, or in his words: “Act only according to that maxim whereby you can, at the same time, will that it should become a universal law.”

This got Kant into some sticky trouble when it comes to lying to save a life. The example goes: say someone runs into your house with a murderer hot on their heels. The polite murderer rings your doorbell and asks if the intended victim is inside. According to Kant’s morality, you have to respond that the person is inside because an act is moral not because of its consequences, but in and of itself. If you were to lie in this circumstance that would mean it was okay to lie in every instance of this circumstance, and, thusly, the soon-to-be murderer would know you were lying.

I’m not a big categorical imperative fan. I believe the outcome of actions should have a bearing on morality (and our rule of law, haphazard as it might be, somewhat reflects this, i.e., if you drive drunk and kill someone you get a higher penalty than simply driving drunk).

In my view, outcomes matter, I’m not as worried about how you get there. The same goes for fantasy baseball, especially head-to-head. All you have to do is win, it really doesn’t matter how. I routinely win h2h leagues with teams, that if it had been roto, would have finished in the middle of the pack.

At about this point in the year/week, you know what categories you are strong in. If Morneau zapped your power and there isn’t much to be had on the wire, it’s time to switch tactics. Look to gobble up speed demons – field an outfield of Jose Tabata, Juan Pierre and Michael Bourn and assure yourself of certain categories early in the week, and then try to focus on those you remain close in. If you go out to an early 8-2 lead in wins, it’s time to load up on relievers to massage those ratios and turn in some saves.

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before It Starts: Ian Kennedy

Ian Kennedy – Current ADP 215; 63rd SP – My Rank: 50th pitcher; 43rd SP

I remember there being a ton of buzz around Ian Kennedy, but I can’t exactly pinpoint when. Was it after 2007 when he pitched 19 innings in the majors and gave up just six runs? Was it that combined with his AAA numbers that year (2.08 ERA, 8.8 K/9 in 34.2 IPs)?

He did come back in 2008 to post fine AAA numbers, but bombed out in just 39.2 innings in the majors (of course he had a .333 BABip and 57.1% strand rate).

Then he got injured and then the Yankees traded him to get Curtis Granderson, basically.

The Diamondbacks took little time in getting Kennedy to the majors. In fact they didn’t let him pitch at all in the minors and he rewarded the organization by throwing 194 innings, posting a 7.79 K/9 rate, a 3.80 ERA and 4.33/4.28 FIP/xFIP. Was he the benefit of a few good bounces? Yes, he had a .256 BABip and 75.5% strand rate.

Still, I think there is improvement coming in his K/9 rate, meaning we could see 175+ Ks in 2011 with Kennedy. He did get batters to swing at 27.8% of his pitches outside of the zone and increased his first strike percentage.

While I don’t think he’ll match his 3.66 ERA from last year, I don’t think he’ll be far from it. If he increases the Ks a little, it’ll more than make-up for a slight regression in runs allowed.

In short, he will likely be worth a selection in the 150-180 range, yet is going 30-60 picks later. I like him more than Jonathan Niese, Jaime Garcia, Jair Jurrjens, Jorge de la Rosa, Phil Hughes, Brian Matusz, and a whole host of other pitchers going ahead of him. I see his 2011 being a lot like John Danks (Kennedy will probably throw fewer innings, but get comparable Ks).

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before the Season Even Starts: Justin Upton

Justin Upton– Current ADP 38 – My Rank: 20th Hitter; 8th OF

By all Superhuman expectations, Justin Upton.2010 disappointed majorly. Save his strike-out and walk rates, his statistics went down across the board compared to his semi-breakout 2009 campaign. The biggest source of disappointment could be the down HR total – and he did only post a 12.4% HR/FB rate, the lowest of his career and significantly lower than 2009 (18.8%). Still, there was no discernable difference in his 2010 BABip as compared to 2009 or his career – meaning he wasn’t all that unlucky.

So the main question is whether he is on his way to being a Bossman Junior-level tease. I certainly hope not and didn’t rank him as such. For one thing, his 2010 wasn’t all that bad – he hit 17 HRs and stole 18 bases and raised his walk rate. Sure the increased strike-outs are a concern, but in reality his BB/K rate wasn’t all that different from his career mark.

I am confident that Upton’s 2009 will represent his floor for the next decade. If Upton can stay healthy and maintain his walk rate, you’re looking at a player who can hit .285+ with a chance at 20-25 HRs, 18 SBs and a decent amount of runs and RBIs. Of course he also comes with the upside to look a lot like his 2009 self, which gives him a small boost for this year.

In short, Upton was born just 23 years ago; it might take him awhile to get THERE, but the HERE isn’t all that bad. I expect him to be worth his draft price.

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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).

While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discreetly of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.

Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.

Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).

h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: Mike Napoli, Miguel Montero, Geo Soto?

Entering 2009, lots of folks projected a break-out year for Mike Napoli for one simple reason: he only received 227 ABs in 2008, yet blasted 20 HRs. The logic went that if he could get some more ABs, he’d hit more HRs. Well, he got more ABs 9382), yet hit exactly 20 HRs. Still, unlike some catchers, he didn’t kill your ratios (.272 AVE and .350 OBP). It seems Napoli is settling into his prime (he is 28) as a .270 hitter with 25 HR upside. He is someone you can ride to his early 30s, giving you probably three more years of productive ownership.