Tyler Pastornicky, 2012 Fantasy Outlook for Razzball

Tyler Pastornicky, 2012 Fantasy Outlook for Razzball, available at:

http://razzball.com/tyler-pastornicky-2012-fantasy-outlook/

h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: Rick Porcello, Chris Volstad, Ricky Romero?

Ricky Romero came out of nowhere to have a useful fantasy/real life year in 2009. At just 24, Romero posted a 4.30 ERA and struck out 141 batters in 178 IPs. However, Romero posted a scary looking 1.52 WHIP. You would assume he’d have a higher ERA with that WHIP or that he would have a ridiculously lucky BAbip. However, the opposite holds true as Romero’s BAbip was .335. In addition, a lot of Romero’s ratio damage came in the second half, during which he posted a 1.77 WHIP and a 5.54 ERA – his BAbip was .372. When he had a more reasonable BAbip (.290) in the first half, his ERA was 3.00 and his WHIP was 1.26. Is he that good? Almost definitely not, as there is nothing in his minor league history to suggest he has great potential. Right now he projects as a number 3/4 starter at best which is useful but not necessarily keeper worthy.

h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: Grady Sizemore, Justin Upton, Carl Crawford

I’m a huge Grady Sizemore fan for so many reasons. His name is Sizemore, he runs, he hits, he beat Greg Oden to the punch, etc. Unfortunately, he isn’t so young anymore (just five months younger than me, putting him 28 in August). Until last year, Sizemore was incredible durable (he averaged 160 games from 2006 – 2008). During that same span he also averaged 28 HRs and 30 SBs. Battling injuries in 2009, he never really got started – still he managed 18 HRs and 13 SBs in only 106 games. Sizemore should be healthy in 2010, which should restore him to his second round worth. Given his age, he likely has at most five elite seasons left.

h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: Ben Zobrist, Asdrubal Cabrera, Aaron Hill?

As noted previously, Ben Zobrist is all over the KTDs and my rankings. Part of me thinks it is because of his awesome (nick)name. Another part of me thinks it is because I went to pick him up in my deep 20-team expert league, but instead went with Micah Hoffpauir. That was a poor decision.

h2h Corner ~ The David Wooderson All-Stars (II)

Regardless of your league’s format, knowing the hot up-and-coming prospects is super important to fantasy success. In keeper leagues, these players, often taken in the later rounds, typically form the foundation of fantasy dynasties. In single season leagues, smartly grabbing young players in the draft or shortly after their call-up is essential to success. Any way you look at it, it pays to know something about these general unknowns while they are still unknown. If you wait too long, you’ll be watching as they contribute meaningfully to your buddy’s team as he wins the league.

h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Shane Victorino?

I must admit that I picked Curtis Granderson as a KTD to help me think through what to do with him in my keeper league. I have him as a 12th rounder next year and had been wavering whether he was worth that pick or not. I mean he posted a .249 AVE and .327 OBP in 2009 and was much worse down the stretch (.223/.284 AVE/OBP in September/October and .248/.319 AVE/OBP in August). Granderson does have a career .321 BAbip, yet it was .275 in 2009. Meanwhile, in 2008, it was .316 and, in 2007, it was .360. So there is a good chance that will improve which will bring his average to a more acceptable level. That said, even if his ratios remained at his abysmal 2009 level, he’d score 100 runs easy, top 30 HRs and knock in 70+. There is a ton to like about his move to New York, which has been favorable to left-handed hitters. He might not steal as much, but his power and runs will increase. This makes the soon-to-be 29-year-old a pretty valuable 2010 player.

h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: Wade Davis, Brandon Morrow, Homer Bailey?

Brandon Morrow just ended up on the wrong side of a divisional swap. Trading the West for the East won’t help his ratios. Still, there is a lot of good in Morrow: he wont be 26 until July; he has a career 9.3 K/9 rate in the majors; and he has tasted major league success, albeit as a reliever. However, if you look at his statistics as a starter and reliever they are eerily similar: 4.42 ERA, 1.47 WHIP as a starter, 3.65 ERA and 1.46 WHIP as a reliever. Basically, in his beast season (2008), his BAbip was .207. In 2007 it was .321 and, in 2009, it was .287. Unsurprisingly, Morrow’s career has been a yo-yo, his stats have hit highs and lows, he’s been a reliever, then a starter, then a reliever. One would hope he gets a chance to prepare and be a starter for a full season. Still, at the moment, Morrow is nothing more than a cheap lottery chip.

h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: Andre Ethier, Hunter Pence, Ben Zobrist?

Ben Zobrist is quite the conundrum for fantasy owners. He seems to qualify everywhere, he hit 27 HRs last year, stole 17 bases, batted .297 and posted a .405 OBP. What’s more, that HR total wasn’t completely flukey, as he smacked 12 dingers in only 62 games in 2008, so there was a chance he could hit more given the opportunity. Of course, he only managed to hit 23 HRs and steal 20 bases in 1,335 minor league ABs – so there was a ton of reasons to doubt him. Zobrist will be 29 in May, so he is in the sweet spot of his prime. I think you can bank on decent AVEs and OBPs, 20 or so HRs and 15 SBs for the next couple of years.

h2h Corner ~ 2010 Pitcher Rankings

Chicks dig the long ball, and so do I. That’s just one of the many reasons I prefer evaluating hitters to pitchers. From a ranking perspective, hitters are more predictable and stable from year to year. In addition, they tend not to be as infected by the injury bug. Because of this, I approach pitchers a tad different from other fantasy writers when creating my ranks for h2h leagues.

h2h Corner ~ 2010 Outfielder Rankings

Outside of Jacoby Ellsbury, there aren’t too many surprises in my top 10 outfielders. That said, I think Justin Upton deserves special recognition, particularly since he’s so young (he’ll turn 23 in August). In just 138 games last year, Upton hit 26 HRs, scored 84 runs, knocked in 86 and stole 20 bases.