Posts Tagged ‘Fausto Carmona’

Baseball Daily Digest Radio featuring myself and Joel Henard from 1.23

Baseball Daily Digest Radio with Joel Henard and Albert Lang from January 23. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/thefantasyinsiders/2012/01/24/baseball-daily-digest-radio-with-joel-henard-and-albert-lang

We’ll talk: Ryan Braun, Roto, Fantasy Baseball, Gary Carter, Maro Scutaro, the Red Sox, Nick Markakis, Manny Ramirez, Tim Lincecum, Carlos Pena, Fausto Carmona, Michael Morse, Ryan theriot, Yu Darvish, Prince Fielder, Edwin jackson, Roy Oswalt, BJ Upton, Desmond Jennings, Michael Pineda, Dan Uggla, jason Kipnis, Brandon Phillips, Mike Moustakas, Aramis Ramirez, Mike Trout and more!

h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Jason Bay – Well, for a week at least, Jason Bay earned his contact with the Mets by going 10/27 with three homers and a steal. Bay now has 18 HRs for the Mets over the last two years – 1/6 came over the last seven days. I was hoping this was part of a longer trend with Bay, but he’s been hovering between.230s and the low .240s in average since early May really. The 12 HR, 11 SB campaign isn’t actually all that bad, but the atrocious average makes him less useful than someone like Will Venable. Bay has hit a gargantuan amount of ground balls this year (at the expensive of fly balls, which isn’t a horrible trade off given his home ball park). Unless he can turn some of those ground balls into well struck batted balls, his BABIP and average will continue to be only useful in NL-only leagues. I don’t know if he’s lost bat speed, but he is suddenly getting eaten alive by fast balls, a pitch he dominated in his heyday. Oh well, the week was nice.

Jon JayI kind of hate but kind of like Jon Jay. I like him because I’m a fan of the Federalist Papers, I dislike him because I get into a lot of e-arguments about his merits versus Colby Rasmus. Well Jay, the ballplayer, has been great lately, going 11/18 with two homers over the last seven days and has five straight multi-hit games. Jay’s .354 BABIP is eerily similar to last season’s .350 and he appears to be hitting the ball a tad sounder this season – his line drive rate is up. He doesn’t swing and miss a lot, so he’ll put a ton of balls in play. He seems like a decent average source going forward with light power/steals – someone like Placido Polanco.

Brent Morel – Watch out for the Morel morsel! Or something like that. Morel was filthy over the last seven days: 9/25 with three bombs. Of course, he now has five homers on the year. He is by no means an option in anything outside of AL-only leagues. This time of year it makes sense to grab the hot hand, but Morel will never do anything like this last seven day stretch.

Marco Scutaro – As someone who was high on Jed Lowrie in the preseason and most of the year (with the omnipresent injury caveat everywhere), I’ve been slow to hop on the Scutaro bandwagon. After he went 12/20 with 11 RBIs over his last seven days, I can ignore him no longer, especially when shortstop is the worst position ever.  Leading up to the play-offs, I imagine Francona is going to try to ride the hot streaks of his marginal players. So, as long as he hits, Scutaro will play. He probably won’t get 11 more RBIs all year, but he’ll post a user-friendly batting average and maybe a homer or two while scoring some runs. In short, he’ll be serviceable. Not a ringing endorsement, but he could be a good Jeter/Rollins (or insert other shortstop) fill-in as it appears they might get some rest down the stretch.

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h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Luke Hughes – five hits, four homers and 10 RBIs over the last seven days will get you noticed. However, the Australian has not really been good in the majors or the minors ever, certainly not in the last few years. He’ll swing and miss north of 10% of the time and strike out well over 20% of the time, but he can take a walk, so he’ll post an OBP that barely scrapes over the .300 line despite a horrid average. He has shown flashes of power in the past (hitting 18 HRs across AA and AAA in 2008) but he’s by no means an elite or even decent power source. Couple that with a lack of batting average, speed or on base ability, and Hughes is not much of an option. Maybe in a 20-teamer or AL-only given he qualifies at multiple positions, but that’s it.

Cliff Pennington – Pennington has been a top five SS over the last 30 days. All he did over the last seven was outpace the position by going 13/31 with four steals. There are only a handful of shortstops I’d rather have than him the rest of the way: Reyes, Tulo, Asdrubal, and Hardy. You can make arguments for Castro, Andrus, and Peralta, but I’m taking Pennington.

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h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

‘Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Jordan Schafer – 2009 must seem like a long time ago for Schafer (incidentally a piss-cheap beer one can buy on their way to casinos in Connecticut). In ’09, he started off with a bang before ending up .204/.313/.287 and then there was the suspension. With Nate McLouth being his typical injured/crappy self, Schafer has gotten some run and, well, run with it: 11/31 with eight runs and four steals over the last seven days. He’s at .256/.330/.341 for the season, which is actually better than what he was doing at AAA. He already has seven steals (albeit in 10 attempts) so he should be owned in most deep leagues. However, I find it hard to believe he’ll continue to post an 88% contact rate and miniscule swinging strike percentage. At a certain point, he’ll stop getting on base and then stop stealing. Ride while he’s hot, drop when he’s not.

Scott Sizemore – I’ve always like Grady and Tom, which, by the transitive property, makes me intrigued by Scott. Over the last seven days (8/19) Scott is making Billy Beane look like the guy featured in Moneyball, not this 1987 Topps card. Sizemore, just 26, has absolutely lit up AAA pitching throughout his career. However, his major league numbers .243/.327/.335 leave a bit to be desired. The OBP for a middle infielder isn’t bad, but it has come with no power and no speed. Right now his BABIP (.365) seems a lad high for a guy with a 17.5% line drive rate, so I can’t imagine him continuing to put up a .276/.376 line. The extra base hits haven’t been there (.333 Slugging percentage), so his upside is minimal. He’s a deep leaguer, don’t be fooled by his hot start with the A’s.

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h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

‘Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Ryan Ludwick – If only someone had tipped off the fantasy community weeks ago about Ryan Ludwick – if only…Over the last seven days, Ludwick, in going 11/25 with three bombs, reminded everyone of his brilliant 2008 season. Ludwick can hit .250 with 25 jacks – he might fall a tad short, but he’ll be close. He’s a very cheap and usable outfielder. All of you who jumped on Gomes should jump on Ludwick. Continue reading

h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

Again, I’m going to use this space to talk about a Reality TV show near and dear to my heart, Big Brother.

In case you missed it, Matt used the diamond power of veto last night to save himself and, de facto, evict Kathy. It was a long time coming for Kathy who was useless, boring and seemed dumb. At what point does “flying under the radar” turn into just plan ole poor performance. Anyway, Kathy deserved to go a few weeks ago.

Still, I was hoping Matt would put up Enzo. I use to like Enzo, but he has proven himself to be a craptastic player (ala Colby in Survivor All-stars). He hasn’t won or come close to winning anything. He talks like a fool (but, I must admit, is sometimes funny). I think Matt realizes that the brigade is a useless alliance for him and will switch to Britney, Ragan and Lane. It’d be a fierce battle between them and Hayden/Brendon/Enzo. Ultimately, Britney has the power this week and I think she nominates Brendon and Hayden. We shall see.

Either way, it’s been a great season, thanks mostly to crazy drama Queen Rachel who reminds me of Jenn from the Evil Dick season. Who do you think is going to win? I’ve still got my money on Lane, but Matt has proven to be intelligent about the game.

Anyway, you know the drill here. With time running out on the season, you need to make the strategic moves that put you over the top. So let’s delve into a bit of the performances over the past seven days.

Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Coco Crisp – Crisp remains owned in too few leagues (19% of Yahoo!). I’ve written about him a lot. So I’ll just leave you with how helpful his last week would have been to your team: sex runs, one HR, four RBIs, four SBs and a .407 AVG).

Yuniesky Betancourt – Betancourt would have to be as hot as he is (.381 AVG, two HRs over the last seven days; five HRs and a .282 AVG over the last 30) for me to mention him. He is simply not a trustworthy fantasy commodity. He doesn’t get on base (one walk this month) and doesn’t have much upside. In a super deep league, where every viable starter is snapped up, sure Betancourt could be owned. I’d feel sorry for that owner, though.

Wilson Betemit – I’ve talk about Betemit in the past and sort of like him. He isn’t getting a ton of playing time, but when he has played he’s produced (last seven days: .368 AVG, two HRs). He seems to destroy the ball at home, so, if you need a hitter pick-up during a Royals home stand, Betemit isn’t the worst option for deep leaguers.

Matt Tuiasosopo – I mostly included Tuiasosopo because his last name is so cool to say. It even sounds good in my internal monologue. While he has had a decent seven-day stretch (two HRs, seven RBIs and a .333 AVG), this will likely be the best seven-day stretch of his career. Given he qualifies at every IF position except SS and the OF, he could be a speculative add in Al-only leagues, but don’t expect anything.

Gregor Blanco – It must be the mid-80s with all the Royals making the All-star team. Blanco has been a secretive stolen base weapon over the past few weeks. Last week alone, he swiped four bases and batted .375. If you need steals, speedster Blanco would be a good ad.

Paul Janish – With Orlando Cabrera on the DL, Janish has been given ample playing time and, well, he hasn’t been bad. Over the last seven days, Janish hit .368, and added one HR and one steal. There isn’t much upside, but he won’t kill your batting and will score the occasional run. He’s certainly more attractive than Betancourt.

Brandon Inge – Inge came off the DL swinging (two HRs and a .273 AVG over the last seven days) and is capable of prodigious home run binges. He is only owned in nine percent of leagues, yet could provide some great power numbers down the stretch (especially RBIs if he bats behind the continually walkable Miguel Cabrera).

Bud Norris – Please, just pick Bud Norris up already. He is only six percent owned, but has killed it recently (14 IPs, two wins, 18 Ks, 2.57 ERA, and 0.71 WHIP). Grab him before your league mates do.

Bryan Bullington – Speaking of the Royals, because, apparently, Katy loves blue, Bullington, a one-time number one-overall pick a long time ago, secured his first career win in a spot start for the Royals. Over the last seven days, he pitched eight innings, didn’t allow a run and posted a 0.38 WHIP. He gets the White Sox tomorrow, which could be a good outing. If you need a starter and are in a deep league, you might as well give the Bouillabaisse a try.

Brandon Lyon & Wilton Lopez – Brandon Lyon is the de facto Astros closer. If you miss him, Wilton Lopez could pick up occasional saves. Lyon is owned in only 20% of leagues, Lopez is only three percent owned. Every save counts in a lot of leagues, don’t be shy about adding one of these guys.

Ross Ohlendorf – Ohlendorf has had a sneaky good season (3.90 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 79 Ks in 108.1 IPs). He was even better over the last seven days (14.2 IPs, 12 Ks, 1.84 ERA and 0.82 WHIP). The biggest negative about Ohlendorf is that he doesn’t get to pitch against his own team. All kidding aside, he does have a minusculely lucky BAbip (.291) and his FIP is 4.43. Basically, he is benefiting from a lucky HR/FB rate (7.7%) which is about three points higher than his career norm. Still, as a low-cost option, Ohlendorf isn’t bad. He certainly won’t just fall off a cliff. I’d avoid starting him at homer-friendly parks though.

John Lannan – Don’t look know, but John Lannan is on a K-binge (last seven days: 12.1 IPs, 10 Ks, 2.92 ERA and 1.05). He has actually been fairly useful over his last 23.1 IPs (3.09 ERA, 1.20 WHIP). In addition, he has been a bit unlucky this year (.333 BAbip, 67.4% strand rate) and he has a FIP around 4.67. Still, he doesn’t have much upside, as he has never really posted a useful MLB K-rate.

Then you’re cold…then you’re no…then you’re out…then you’re down

Carl Pavano – The Pavano resurgence has been Alyssa Milano’ed (last week: two starts, seven Ks, a 6.57 ERA and 2.11 WHIP). He’s been downright horrible over his last 40 IPs (3.66 ERA and 1.58 WHIP). Sure he has a slightly lucky BAbip on the year (.285), but his FIP (3.72) isn’t much higher than his ERA (3.52). So what do we make of his last few miserable outings? I think they are just random poor occurrences. Over the last 28 days, Pavano has a .409 BAbip, over the last 14, a .431. If your trading deadline hasn’t passed, Pavano makes a good buy low. I wouldn’t worry about him going forward.

Fausto Carmona – It’s tough when a two-start pitcher takes it upon himself to royally screw you (7.36 ERA, 1.82 WHIP and just four Ks). Those Ks are the reason I don’t like pitchers like Carmona. There is no help when he struggles. At least Pavano (by no means a strike-out pitcher) secured seven punch-outs last week. Dr. Faustus is what he is this year, a guy with about a 4.00 ERA and risky WHIP who doesn’t K anyone. I’d be careful when I use him going forward.

Edinson Volquez – Weeks like the last one (5.06 ERA and 1.78 WHIP) highlight the reasons I told you to be weary of Volquez. While his to-date Ks are nice (35 in 34 IPs), I don’t think you can expect much relief in the ratios. In his short season to date, he has an 80.9% strand rate. Sure he has a .334 BAbip (which is unlucky), but his FIP is 5.68. I love his K upside. He is someone it’d be nice to have in the arsenal to throw out there if I wasn’t worried about my ERA/WHIP, but other than that, I don’t see Volquez as being particularly helpful.

Matt Kemp – Matt Kemp has been a top 80 player this year, which isn’t bad (unless you compare that to the top five some were predicting). Kemp, as his last seven days can attest (.087 AVG) has never got into a groove. He’ll still end up a 20/20 player, but, at this point, is a certain disappointment. So, what caused the 2010 pitfall? Well, his career BAbip is .349, while it rests at .305 this season. So there has been a bit of fluctuation. Of course, Kemp hasn’t been around forever, so we don’t know exactly what his BAbip performance will be. In addition, Kemp has lost his eye at the plate. He is on pace for about 30 more Ks this year than last. He is also getting caught stealing at a near 50% rate – far higher than anything we’ve seen from him. Looking into the crystal ball, he’ll be a top four round pick next year with some upside. It’s just a shame he didn’t continue his career arc. But, hey, players don’t (Nick Markakis)

Miguel Olivo – It’s borderline dumps time for Olivo. He has come back to earth after a scorching hot 60% of the season. Quite simply, we all knew this would happen as he has never been someone who could get on base 30% of the time, let alone hit .300. If there are more attractive options out there, feel free to bombs away. At this point, I’d like to have a backstop who didn’t destroy by AVG/OBP every week.

All stats as of noon on August 20, 2010

FB101’s 411: Be sure you know how to judge a hot streak. Crisp, Lyon, Lopez, Norris, Ohlendorf, and Blanco make good adds. Keep your eye on Inge, Lannan, Janish and Betemit. You are allowed to sort of give up on Miguel Olive.

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