Posts Tagged ‘guerrero’

h2h Corner ~ The Buddy Garrity, Don Draper, Ed Norton Sales Convention

Buddy Garrity sales time (sell now)

When it is Buddy Garrity sales time, you should be moving players immediately. These are players that will likely regress to means or not perform as well as they have been (i.e., sell high candidates). In addition, they include guys I don’t think will perform well at all during the rest of the season. These are players you are best cutting your losses with.

Vernon Wells – Wells is a dreamboat for Buddy; think a classic car that looks fantastic on the outside, yet is worn down under the hood. Wells is off to a fantastic start (seven HRs, a .333 AVE and .398 OBP); however, as you well know, he won’t keep up this pace. I see a line more like 80 runs, 20 HRs, 75 RBIs, a .270 AVE and a .330 OBP. If you can move him for more than that, do so.

Jose Guillen – Guillen seems to be the vintage Ashton Martin to Wells’ sparkling Corvette (I don’t know cars). However, Guillen has been more useful than Wells when healthy. That said, he can’t keep up a 50 HR pace. Buddy has Guillen out front with a bright new paint job, priced to move. If you can bring back a $10 consistent player for Guillen, I’d be happy with those returns.

Dan Uggla – I love Dan Uggla (he is a cheap 30 HR lock at second base). Unfortunately so does Buddy. You know why? Uggla is a career .259 hitter, yet is hitting at a .298 pace so far this season. The HRs, runs and RBIs will be there, but he hasn’t suddenly become a .290 hitter. Sell people on him being in a “contract year,” but don’t give him away. Right now he is playing like a fourth round talent, when he is really only a sixth/seventh rounder.

Barry Zito – Thanks to a .203 BAbip, Zito has basically halved his hit/9 rate (8.0 for career, 4.9 for 2010). That is pretty unsustainable. He certainly isn’t as worthless as he was a few years ago, but there is a lot of hype around him being similar to what he was when he pitched for the As. In reality, he’s strung together a bit of luck with the best K/BB rate of his career. I’d be pricing him to move immediately.

Brad Penny – I own Brad Penny everywhere and who wouldn’t be happy with the returns? Well, for starters, he hasn’t struck anyone out (4.7 Ks/9), which really hurts you in innings capped leagues. Further, he has magically begun walking less than one batter per game, when, for his entire career, he walked nearly three batters per nine innings. I don’t think Penny will fall off a cliff, but I’d rather have a guy who could strike a few batters out. I do think his ratios will climb a bit: at least a 3.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. I’d rather trade away a hot pitcher at the beginning of the year then bank on him continuing to perform optimally.

Don Draper sales time (moderately/slyly begin to move)

The Don Draper sales time requires that you be a less obvious trade partner. I advocate proposing a range of players that are available. Make sure to include those players who you think your trade partner might slightly overvalue. If he is interested, emphasize the positive stats of your Don Draper candidate. However, don’t seem eager. The best reaction to a trade proposal is a slow one. Take your time; be fair and vague, like how Don Draper picks up women.

Carlos Gonzalez – Carlos Gonzalez is the only baseball player my girlfriend knows (baby steps). So it pains me to speak ill of him, but I must…a tad. First, I’ll start with the praise: my god he can hit (.355 AVE, .367 OBP). Hopefully you see the problem there. A guy with a .355 AVE should have no problem posting an OBP around .400. Unfortunately, CarGo has walked just two times (compared to 15 Ks). For his major league career, he has walked 43 times and struck out 166 times. He has also been lucky when it comes to his BAbip (.407 in 2010 and .335 for his career). Anyway you look at it, his batting average and OBP are going to come down. That means his runs, RBIs and SBs will come with it. He’ll still be a good and useful player, just not at the heights he is at the moment. If people are buying his early season Ichiro impression, by all means sell.

Chase Headley – I liked Headley a few years ago. Now he is 26 and mashing for the new and improved San Diego Padres. He was a career .300 hitter in the minor leagues and I see no issue with him approaching that number in 2010 (of course his current average is .337). Still, his slight (and real) average decline isn’t why I advocate trading him at the moment. I am doing so because his value is inflated by six stolen bases. Headley stole six bases total in four minor league seasons. He only stole 10 last year. Quite frankly, I don’t see him stealing much more than six the rest of the way. If you can sell based on his SB potential, Don Draper would be smiling upon you.

Vlad Guerrero – Listen, Vlad is awesome, but he ain’t gonna hit .368 or steal three more bases all year (most of his 2010 steals came against the inept Red Sox). Right now, he is rated highly based on his average and those steals. If someone thinks those can continue, by all means sell. If not, enjoy keeping him, as he’ll score a decent amount of runs, hit 16-20 HRs and bat a comfortable .300.

John Danks – Danks has been off to an impressive start to the 2010 campaign: three wins, 1.55 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9. Is he living up to his first round selection? Not quite, at least not yet. For one thing, Danks has been pretty lucky: to wit, a .224 BAbip. That is completely unsustainable – when it rises so will his ratios. In addition, Danks’ K/9 rate has been a very serviceable 7.1 throughout his career and his walk rate had been 3/9. In 2010, he has made some major improvements in those areas. I’m not saying he cant keep up his 2010 rates, I’m just stating that he never has before. Danks is likely on his way to his best season yet, but he’s had a little help. If anyone is buying him as a surefire ace, I have no qualms about letting that owner deal with the luck correction.

Francisco Liriano – There is no denying that Liriano has been great (0.93 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 8.4 Ks/9). However, he has never been all that healthy and he has a .247 BAbip. This is all my way of suggesting I don’t think he is “back” to his 2006 form (nor do I think he ever will). If you can get someone to pay something akin to what he was worth a few years ago, go right ahead. I’d rather let them take on the risk.

The Ed Norton hold pat time (Keeping the Faith)

I don’t love Edward Norton because he’s an Orioles fan (although that doesn’t hurt). I love him because he is an awesome actor. The players in his group can’t be moved for fair market value and shouldn’t be dropped in any competitive league. They’ll likely rebound to near draft value so don’t sell low. Instead, if you see any of these guys available, you should be buying at a discount.

Javier Vazquez — Yankee fans have about as good a history with Javier Vazquez as I do with Armando Benitez. So far, Vazquez has posted a 9.00 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. He has 18 Ks in 20 IPs and, for the season, he has an 8.1 K/9 rate (exactly the same as his career mark); however he has a bloated walk rate (5.0 compared to 2.4 for his career). Add that to an unlucky BAbip of .345 and you can see why Vazquez has been underperforming. He’ll turn it around (not to 2009 NL levels), but will be a good high-K/WHIP pitcher. Someone like an AJ Burnett.

Rick PorcelloPorcello is off to a poor sophomore campaign (7.91 ERA, 2.02).  Still, he has managed a decent K-rate (6.1 for the year, up from 4.7 last year) and he has been horribly unlucky (.449 BAbip). I actually expect him to get better, so don’t drop or try to trade him at this lonesome valley.

Josh BeckettI like Beckett and think he is a serviceable pitcher, but not the ace a lot of people do. He certainly hasn’t started the season well: 7.22 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and a 6.3 K/9 rate. Still, like Porcello, he has been unlucky (.351 BAbip). I also think his K-rate will get closer to his career norm of 8.5. At this point, he doesn’t have a lot of trade value, so you better ride out the storm.

Gavin FloydThere are a couple reasons Gavin Floyd ended up keeping the faith. First, you can’t really trade someone who has an 8.38 ERA and 2.02 WHIP over 19.1 IPs. Second, he has been horrendously unlucky (.406 BAbip). Third, Floyd doesn’t pitch well early in the season (6.60 ERA/1.69 WHIP in March/April, 5.42 ERA/1.41 WHIP in May). The good news is that he gets dramatically better over the summer. In summation, you can’t get fair value for him now and he’ll be better than he has been, so you have to hold on.

Cole Hamels – Cole Hamels is posting his highest career K/9 rate (10.6 versus his average of 8.5). Unfortunately, he is giving up roughly one more homerun per nine than he has in his career and walking 0.9 more batters per nine innings. Basically, Hamels has all of sudden given up a lot more HRs than he historically has. For his career he has averaged 24 HRs per year, yet this season he is on pace for 40 or so. I don’t think he suddenly became a gopher hurler. Let him ride this mess out.

Alexei Ramirez – Think of Alexei Ramirez as the hitter version of Gavin Floyd. For his career, Ramirez is a .198 hitter in March/April. For the rest of the way he slams the ball. Once the calendar turns, be sure to keep an eye on Ramirez (who is owned in only 64 percent of Yahoo leagues), as history suggests he’ll heat up. It’s not like you can trade him for anything anyway, so you might as well keep the faith!

Julio Borbon – I never thought I would be relieved that a player was hitting .185, yet I am for Borbon as he was hitting just .100 eight games ago. What has been so criminal about his 2010 campaign is his average on balls in play (.226). Last year he had a .360 BAbip. In the minors he hit .310 across three seasons. In short, Borbon is good for at least a .275 average, which would in turn lead to a lot of SBs. He is already on a good SB pace, think how good it will get when he gets on base more often. I wouldn’t be selling for pennies on the dollar.

Stats as of 12:00 PM ET April 29.

FB101’s 411: Trade Wells, Guillen, Zito, Uggla and Penny. Subtly move: Carlos Gonzalez, Headley, Vlad, Danks and Liriano. Keep the Faith on Vazquez, Beckett, Pocello, Floyd, Hamels, Borbon and Alexei Ramirez.

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