6 Mar
Shuffling Values: The Shifting Landscapes in OPS Fantasy Baseball Leagues for Razzball: http://razzball.com/shuffling-values-the-shifting-landscapes-in-ops-leagues/.
An article delving into how roto and fantasy baseball values change in leagues that focs on OPS (on-base percentage + slugging) instead of more traditional formats.
18 Jan
The offseason sucks, right? If you aren’t a fan of the Nouveau Rich Angels or Marlins, ain’t much happening.
Sure you stay up on all the news and get excited when your squad picks up a new (malcontented) outfielder – or a stud Cuban who might actually be eligible for social security benefits (if he was a citizen, you know) – or one of the Molina Brothers.
For the most part, however, there is very little to keep fantasy players engaged through the long winter months. Lucky for you, I’ve got a solution: Hot Stove Fantasy Baseball.
The league’s set up is really quite simple. Each owner is allotted $230 to build his team. The player universe is everyone that filed for free agency following the season (including those desperate (smart?) few who accepted arbitration). There is a handy list at Baseball Reference every year: http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/2011-free-agents.shtml.
Each team starts 10 hitters (normal spots plus two utilities), four SPs, three RPs and three general Ps. You cannot make any moves (other than trades) during the regular season and must fill each roster spot with a body (but you could always use Troy Glaus if you want!).
23 Apr
Immanuel Kant, one of the craziest thinkers I’ve ever encounter (I hate the Critique of Pure Reason), created something called the categorical imperative. Basically, it was one tenet that would govern all actions. When you boil it down, Kant thought a person should only do something that everyone should be allowed to do, or in his words: “Act only according to that maxim whereby you can, at the same time, will that it should become a universal law.”
This got Kant into some sticky trouble when it comes to lying to save a life. The example goes: say someone runs into your house with a murderer hot on their heels. The polite murderer rings your doorbell and asks if the intended victim is inside. According to Kant’s morality, you have to respond that the person is inside because an act is moral not because of its consequences, but in and of itself. If you were to lie in this circumstance that would mean it was okay to lie in every instance of this circumstance, and, thusly, the soon-to-be murderer would know you were lying.
I’m not a big categorical imperative fan. I believe the outcome of actions should have a bearing on morality (and our rule of law, haphazard as it might be, somewhat reflects this, i.e., if you drive drunk and kill someone you get a higher penalty than simply driving drunk).
In my view, outcomes matter, I’m not as worried about how you get there. The same goes for fantasy baseball, especially head-to-head. All you have to do is win, it really doesn’t matter how. I routinely win h2h leagues with teams, that if it had been roto, would have finished in the middle of the pack.
At about this point in the year/week, you know what categories you are strong in. If Morneau zapped your power and there isn’t much to be had on the wire, it’s time to switch tactics. Look to gobble up speed demons – field an outfield of Jose Tabata, Juan Pierre and Michael Bourn and assure yourself of certain categories early in the week, and then try to focus on those you remain close in. If you go out to an early 8-2 lead in wins, it’s time to load up on relievers to massage those ratios and turn in some saves. Continue reading
8 Mar
Jimmy Rollins – Current ADP 40; 4th SS – My Rank: 112; 10th SS
Much like J-Lo, J-Roll has fallen hard. I use to love J-Roll, he (along with Matt Holliday and Grady Sizemore) helped me win my most emphatic championship. At one point, he was my favorite baseball player not on the Orioles. I have written eloquently about him.
However, that has to stop. I need to remain somewhat objective (even if it means praising Derek Jeter and Rivera).
Quite simply, things have not gone well for Rollins since his MVP season in 2007. His average has dropped from .296 to .277 to .250 to .243 (the last being in only 88 games). During that four-year trek to the dregs, his line drive percentage has tanked, his ground ball percentage has gone up, and his HR/FB rate has gone down.
I’d love to blame last year’s poor performance on injuries and BABip (it was .246); however, in 155 healthy-ish games in 2009, he posted a .251 BABip. Rollins has also started to swing at more balls outside of the zone than he did in his younger years; and consequently is seeing less balls thrown inside the strike zone. Still, by most metrics he remains a solid fielder, so his legs are still there – no small feat for a 32-year-old who has logged over 1,500 games (when you count the post season).
Unfortunately, no matter how hard I try, I can’t see Rollins getting back to that .275 hitter he was during his peak – and he has never taken any walks. So, at this point, there is very little AVG/OBP upside.
He might push 15-20 HRs and 25-30 SBs, but will likely rest on the low end of the spectrum for each.
Even though shortstop is incredibly shallow, you can make up his numbers with any sort of player – I prefer to take a Rafael Furcal and pair him with a decent back-up rather than spending a top 40 pick. In the 40s, you can get the likes of Andrew McCutcheon, Adam Dunn, Jose Bautista, Jayson Werth, Jason Heyward, etc. etc. etc.
Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).
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Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP).
While no two drafts are identical, knowing where a player typically goes gives you a general idea of where he will go in your draft. That said, be sure to do homework on your league mates subjective tendencies. For example, if there are Red Sox fans, be sure to snag guys like Lester and Youkilis a bit earlier than you normally would. In addition, you should talk up your sleepers before the draft (discretely of course) to see if anyone is on to them. If you don’t, an opponent with an itchy trigger finger who hasn’t done his ADP homework might snag one of your sleepers a round before anyone else is typically taking him.
Now that you know WHY ADP is important, I want to show you HOW to exploit it by highlighting those players who are going too low compared to players with similar ADPs. You can grab an ADP report at Mock Draft Central.
Feel free to share your insights below or at my Twitter (@h2h_corner).
9 Jul
Buddy Garrity sales time (sell now)
When it is Buddy Garrity sales time, you should be moving players immediately. These are players that will likely regress to means or not perform as well as they have been (i.e., sell high candidates). In addition, they include guys I don’t think will perform well at all during the rest of the season. These are players you are best cutting your losses with. Continue reading
h2h Corner 