2012 Fantasy Baseball Pitch or Ditch for Friday, April 6, 2012 for Fantasy Pros 911: http://fp911.com/2012-fantasy-baseball-pitch-or-ditch-for-friday-april-6-2012/, an article that discusses all of the starting pitching roto and fantasy baseball options for today and which should be started and avoided.
Posts Tagged ‘john danks’
9 Sep
h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars
Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.
That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.
‘Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up
Jason Bay – Well, for a week at least, Jason Bay earned his contact with the Mets by going 10/27 with three homers and a steal. Bay now has 18 HRs for the Mets over the last two years – 1/6 came over the last seven days. I was hoping this was part of a longer trend with Bay, but he’s been hovering between.230s and the low .240s in average since early May really. The 12 HR, 11 SB campaign isn’t actually all that bad, but the atrocious average makes him less useful than someone like Will Venable. Bay has hit a gargantuan amount of ground balls this year (at the expensive of fly balls, which isn’t a horrible trade off given his home ball park). Unless he can turn some of those ground balls into well struck batted balls, his BABIP and average will continue to be only useful in NL-only leagues. I don’t know if he’s lost bat speed, but he is suddenly getting eaten alive by fast balls, a pitch he dominated in his heyday. Oh well, the week was nice.
Jon Jay – I kind of hate but kind of like Jon Jay. I like him because I’m a fan of the Federalist Papers, I dislike him because I get into a lot of e-arguments about his merits versus Colby Rasmus. Well Jay, the ballplayer, has been great lately, going 11/18 with two homers over the last seven days and has five straight multi-hit games. Jay’s .354 BABIP is eerily similar to last season’s .350 and he appears to be hitting the ball a tad sounder this season – his line drive rate is up. He doesn’t swing and miss a lot, so he’ll put a ton of balls in play. He seems like a decent average source going forward with light power/steals – someone like Placido Polanco.
Brent Morel – Watch out for the Morel morsel! Or something like that. Morel was filthy over the last seven days: 9/25 with three bombs. Of course, he now has five homers on the year. He is by no means an option in anything outside of AL-only leagues. This time of year it makes sense to grab the hot hand, but Morel will never do anything like this last seven day stretch.
Marco Scutaro – As someone who was high on Jed Lowrie in the preseason and most of the year (with the omnipresent injury caveat everywhere), I’ve been slow to hop on the Scutaro bandwagon. After he went 12/20 with 11 RBIs over his last seven days, I can ignore him no longer, especially when shortstop is the worst position ever. Leading up to the play-offs, I imagine Francona is going to try to ride the hot streaks of his marginal players. So, as long as he hits, Scutaro will play. He probably won’t get 11 more RBIs all year, but he’ll post a user-friendly batting average and maybe a homer or two while scoring some runs. In short, he’ll be serviceable. Not a ringing endorsement, but he could be a good Jeter/Rollins (or insert other shortstop) fill-in as it appears they might get some rest down the stretch.
22 Sep
h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars
Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.
That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.
Katy Perry has also wondrously semi-debauched Sesame Street with a slightly cleaned up version of Hot N Cold. That is all.
‘Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up
Mike Aviles – Aviles is available in a lot of leagues. Aviles hit .462 over the last seven days and added three HRs. It appears the Royals will give Aviles the playing time he deserves. Ipso facto, Aviles should be rostered.
Danny Valencia – Valencia has been on absolute fire as of late (.391 AVG, three HRs and seven RBIs over the last seven days). However, I wouldn’t bank on him continuing power stroke. He slugged only .469 in the minors and just .373 in AAA this season. In deep leagues, I’d be interested, but he doesn’t profile as someone who can help 10- and 12-teamers.
Jose Guillen – Katy only included Jose Guillen because he has the propensity to absolutely go off and be one of the best hitters in baseball. There is an inkling that this might occur. Over the last seven days, Guillen went 7/14 and added two round trippers and eight RBIs. If he hits one more HR, I’d think of adding him for the h2h play-offs. It’s hard to catch lightening in a bottle this late, but Guillen could definitely be that spark.
Dan Johnson – Johnson hit three HRs over the last seven days. He has hit eight total since 2008. He did hit 18 bombs in 2007. However, the first base/DH position is pretty cloudy for the Rays. Carlos Pena, Brad Hawpe and Matt Joyce all need at bats and are left-handed. Unless there is an injury that frees up ABs, Johnson won’t have a ton of value.
Chris Johnson – If you listened to me on the radio Monday night, you would have heard me say I think Chris Johnson is in for a big week. So far, he has already had a good last seven days (.364 AVG, two HRs and five RBIs). I don’t think Johnson will replicate this season next year, but for the next 10 days, I wouldn’t mind riding his hot streak.
Carlos Gomez – True story, I traded Ian Desmond for Carlos Gomez in an NL-only league. That team is now in first and I am in second. It’s depressing. Well, Gomez has actually looked good of late (.350 AVG and three steals over the last seven days). As long as Gomez is playing, he has a chance to get on base, which means he’ll try to steal. If you need to solidify that category, he is a very available option.
Bud Norris – Another radio star Joel Henard and I discussed Monday. I don’t understand how Norris is only owned in 12 percent of leagues. Over the last seven days, he has two wins, 13 strike-outs, a 1.93 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. He also plays for the Astros – what more do you want? Add him!
Jake Westbrook – Katy is absolutely shocked at Westbrook’s ownership levels. In his last start, he went eight shut-out innings with a 1.12 WHIP. Sure, he doesn’t strike out a ton of batters but he has a 3.26 ERA and 1.24 WHIP since joining the Cardinals. I wish I owned him.
Jhoulys Chacin – Here is a guy I don’t wish I own because I don’t have to because I own him (worst sentence construction ever?). In his last start, Chacin went eight shut-out innings and posted a 1.12 WHIP (somewhat identical to Westbrook’s last outing). Chacin has all the makings of a star and has been phenomenal this year (8.83 K/9, 3.30 ERA and 3.47 FIP). Please add him, he deserves it.
Then you’re cold…then you’re no…then you’re out…then you’re down
Mat Latos – One of the reasons my NL-only team is in second place – the struggles of Mat Latos. Over the last seven days, he managed to pitch just 1.1 IPs, yet he gave up eight runs on nine hits. He remains a good pitcher, but he hasn’t really tested his arm this much in terms of pitches and innings. If I’m close in ERA, I might be careful in how I use Latos in his next one or two outings. He should get the Dodgers in his next start, a team he has dominated this year.
John Danks – On April 30, Danks had three wins, a 1.55 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 rate, and 8.1 K/9 rate. At that time, I suggested people try to trade him. While he wasn’t entirely brutal over the last week (13.1 IPs, seven Ks, a 7.43 ERA and 1.35 WHIP), his 2010 K-rate has come down to 6.83 (just like last year), the walk rate has gone up to 2.94 and he has a 3.80 ERA and 3.71 FIP. I like Danks, but he was never the stud the beginning of the season made him look like. He remains an upper echelon match-ups play going forward.
Gio Gonzalez – In the same column I referenced above, I also suggested folks trade Gio Gonzalez. Like Danks, he too has had a tough seven days (eight IPs, eight Ks, a 7.88 ERA and a 2.25 WHIP). All of that is the result of one poor outing against Kansas City (seven runs in two IPs). I like Gonzalez a lot, even though he has benefited from a reduced HR/9 rate. He is a pitcher I am confident posting an ERA from 3.70 – 4.00 with a sterling K-rate (say 8.00 – 9.00).
Brandon Phillips – Joel and I talked about the brutality of Phillips recent stretch on Monday. It’s been bad (2/25 over the last seven days). What I had forgotten about was the bruised right hand he suffered about a month ago. At this point, you can’t wait for Phillips to come out of his funk; you should drop him and grab a player like Eric Young.
Elvis Andrus – Andrus has been borderline useless over the last seven days (.179 AVG and four runs). What’s worse is that he has been crashing back to earth after a hot start to the season. Sure, he has improved his OBP by about .020 points, but his slugging percentage is .305. That, my friends, is Wily Tavares-esque. What’s worse is he is only 30/44 in steal attempts. I still believe in Andrus for next year. He is only 21. However, for the rest of this season, Mike Aviles might be a better option right now.
All stats as of noon September 21, 2010
FB101’s 411: Be sure you know how to judge a hot streak. Aviles Chris Johnson, Chacin, Norris, and Westbrook make good adds. Keep your eye on Guillen, Gomez, and Valencia. You are allowed to sort of give up on Elvis Andrus and Brandon Phillips.
30 Apr
h2h Corner ~ The Buddy Garrity, Don Draper, Ed Norton Sales Convention
Buddy Garrity sales time (sell now)
When it is Buddy Garrity sales time, you should be moving players immediately. These are players that will likely regress to means or not perform as well as they have been (i.e., sell high candidates). In addition, they include guys I don’t think will perform well at all during the rest of the season. These are players you are best cutting your losses with.
Vernon Wells – Wells is a dreamboat for Buddy; think a classic car that looks fantastic on the outside, yet is worn down under the hood. Wells is off to a fantastic start (seven HRs, a .333 AVE and .398 OBP); however, as you well know, he won’t keep up this pace. I see a line more like 80 runs, 20 HRs, 75 RBIs, a .270 AVE and a .330 OBP. If you can move him for more than that, do so.
Jose Guillen – Guillen seems to be the vintage Ashton Martin to Wells’ sparkling Corvette (I don’t know cars). However, Guillen has been more useful than Wells when healthy. That said, he can’t keep up a 50 HR pace. Buddy has Guillen out front with a bright new paint job, priced to move. If you can bring back a $10 consistent player for Guillen, I’d be happy with those returns.
Dan Uggla – I love Dan Uggla (he is a cheap 30 HR lock at second base). Unfortunately so does Buddy. You know why? Uggla is a career .259 hitter, yet is hitting at a .298 pace so far this season. The HRs, runs and RBIs will be there, but he hasn’t suddenly become a .290 hitter. Sell people on him being in a “contract year,” but don’t give him away. Right now he is playing like a fourth round talent, when he is really only a sixth/seventh rounder.
Barry Zito – Thanks to a .203 BAbip, Zito has basically halved his hit/9 rate (8.0 for career, 4.9 for 2010). That is pretty unsustainable. He certainly isn’t as worthless as he was a few years ago, but there is a lot of hype around him being similar to what he was when he pitched for the As. In reality, he’s strung together a bit of luck with the best K/BB rate of his career. I’d be pricing him to move immediately.
Brad Penny – I own Brad Penny everywhere and who wouldn’t be happy with the returns? Well, for starters, he hasn’t struck anyone out (4.7 Ks/9), which really hurts you in innings capped leagues. Further, he has magically begun walking less than one batter per game, when, for his entire career, he walked nearly three batters per nine innings. I don’t think Penny will fall off a cliff, but I’d rather have a guy who could strike a few batters out. I do think his ratios will climb a bit: at least a 3.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. I’d rather trade away a hot pitcher at the beginning of the year then bank on him continuing to perform optimally.
Don Draper sales time (moderately/slyly begin to move)
The Don Draper sales time requires that you be a less obvious trade partner. I advocate proposing a range of players that are available. Make sure to include those players who you think your trade partner might slightly overvalue. If he is interested, emphasize the positive stats of your Don Draper candidate. However, don’t seem eager. The best reaction to a trade proposal is a slow one. Take your time; be fair and vague, like how Don Draper picks up women.
Carlos Gonzalez – Carlos Gonzalez is the only baseball player my girlfriend knows (baby steps). So it pains me to speak ill of him, but I must…a tad. First, I’ll start with the praise: my god he can hit (.355 AVE, .367 OBP). Hopefully you see the problem there. A guy with a .355 AVE should have no problem posting an OBP around .400. Unfortunately, CarGo has walked just two times (compared to 15 Ks). For his major league career, he has walked 43 times and struck out 166 times. He has also been lucky when it comes to his BAbip (.407 in 2010 and .335 for his career). Anyway you look at it, his batting average and OBP are going to come down. That means his runs, RBIs and SBs will come with it. He’ll still be a good and useful player, just not at the heights he is at the moment. If people are buying his early season Ichiro impression, by all means sell.
Chase Headley – I liked Headley a few years ago. Now he is 26 and mashing for the new and improved San Diego Padres. He was a career .300 hitter in the minor leagues and I see no issue with him approaching that number in 2010 (of course his current average is .337). Still, his slight (and real) average decline isn’t why I advocate trading him at the moment. I am doing so because his value is inflated by six stolen bases. Headley stole six bases total in four minor league seasons. He only stole 10 last year. Quite frankly, I don’t see him stealing much more than six the rest of the way. If you can sell based on his SB potential, Don Draper would be smiling upon you.
Vlad Guerrero – Listen, Vlad is awesome, but he ain’t gonna hit .368 or steal three more bases all year (most of his 2010 steals came against the inept Red Sox). Right now, he is rated highly based on his average and those steals. If someone thinks those can continue, by all means sell. If not, enjoy keeping him, as he’ll score a decent amount of runs, hit 16-20 HRs and bat a comfortable .300.
John Danks – Danks has been off to an impressive start to the 2010 campaign: three wins, 1.55 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9. Is he living up to his first round selection? Not quite, at least not yet. For one thing, Danks has been pretty lucky: to wit, a .224 BAbip. That is completely unsustainable – when it rises so will his ratios. In addition, Danks’ K/9 rate has been a very serviceable 7.1 throughout his career and his walk rate had been 3/9. In 2010, he has made some major improvements in those areas. I’m not saying he cant keep up his 2010 rates, I’m just stating that he never has before. Danks is likely on his way to his best season yet, but he’s had a little help. If anyone is buying him as a surefire ace, I have no qualms about letting that owner deal with the luck correction.
Francisco Liriano – There is no denying that Liriano has been great (0.93 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 8.4 Ks/9). However, he has never been all that healthy and he has a .247 BAbip. This is all my way of suggesting I don’t think he is “back” to his 2006 form (nor do I think he ever will). If you can get someone to pay something akin to what he was worth a few years ago, go right ahead. I’d rather let them take on the risk.
The Ed Norton hold pat time (Keeping the Faith)
I don’t love Edward Norton because he’s an Orioles fan (although that doesn’t hurt). I love him because he is an awesome actor. The players in his group can’t be moved for fair market value and shouldn’t be dropped in any competitive league. They’ll likely rebound to near draft value so don’t sell low. Instead, if you see any of these guys available, you should be buying at a discount.
Javier Vazquez — Yankee fans have about as good a history with Javier Vazquez as I do with Armando Benitez. So far, Vazquez has posted a 9.00 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. He has 18 Ks in 20 IPs and, for the season, he has an 8.1 K/9 rate (exactly the same as his career mark); however he has a bloated walk rate (5.0 compared to 2.4 for his career). Add that to an unlucky BAbip of .345 and you can see why Vazquez has been underperforming. He’ll turn it around (not to 2009 NL levels), but will be a good high-K/WHIP pitcher. Someone like an AJ Burnett.
Rick Porcello – Porcello is off to a poor sophomore campaign (7.91 ERA, 2.02). Still, he has managed a decent K-rate (6.1 for the year, up from 4.7 last year) and he has been horribly unlucky (.449 BAbip). I actually expect him to get better, so don’t drop or try to trade him at this lonesome valley.
Josh Beckett — I like Beckett and think he is a serviceable pitcher, but not the ace a lot of people do. He certainly hasn’t started the season well: 7.22 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and a 6.3 K/9 rate. Still, like Porcello, he has been unlucky (.351 BAbip). I also think his K-rate will get closer to his career norm of 8.5. At this point, he doesn’t have a lot of trade value, so you better ride out the storm.
Gavin Floyd – There are a couple reasons Gavin Floyd ended up keeping the faith. First, you can’t really trade someone who has an 8.38 ERA and 2.02 WHIP over 19.1 IPs. Second, he has been horrendously unlucky (.406 BAbip). Third, Floyd doesn’t pitch well early in the season (6.60 ERA/1.69 WHIP in March/April, 5.42 ERA/1.41 WHIP in May). The good news is that he gets dramatically better over the summer. In summation, you can’t get fair value for him now and he’ll be better than he has been, so you have to hold on.
Cole Hamels – Cole Hamels is posting his highest career K/9 rate (10.6 versus his average of 8.5). Unfortunately, he is giving up roughly one more homerun per nine than he has in his career and walking 0.9 more batters per nine innings. Basically, Hamels has all of sudden given up a lot more HRs than he historically has. For his career he has averaged 24 HRs per year, yet this season he is on pace for 40 or so. I don’t think he suddenly became a gopher hurler. Let him ride this mess out.
Alexei Ramirez – Think of Alexei Ramirez as the hitter version of Gavin Floyd. For his career, Ramirez is a .198 hitter in March/April. For the rest of the way he slams the ball. Once the calendar turns, be sure to keep an eye on Ramirez (who is owned in only 64 percent of Yahoo leagues), as history suggests he’ll heat up. It’s not like you can trade him for anything anyway, so you might as well keep the faith!
Julio Borbon – I never thought I would be relieved that a player was hitting .185, yet I am for Borbon as he was hitting just .100 eight games ago. What has been so criminal about his 2010 campaign is his average on balls in play (.226). Last year he had a .360 BAbip. In the minors he hit .310 across three seasons. In short, Borbon is good for at least a .275 average, which would in turn lead to a lot of SBs. He is already on a good SB pace, think how good it will get when he gets on base more often. I wouldn’t be selling for pennies on the dollar.
Stats as of 12:00 PM ET April 29.
FB101’s 411: Trade Wells, Guillen, Zito, Uggla and Penny. Subtly move: Carlos Gonzalez, Headley, Vlad, Danks and Liriano. Keep the Faith on Vazquez, Beckett, Pocello, Floyd, Hamels, Borbon and Alexei Ramirez.
27 Feb
h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: Jonathan Sanchez, Jorge de la Rosa, John Danks?
Jonathan Sanchez has put together periods of brilliance in his short four season career. In March/April of 2008, Sanchez threw 33.2 IPs, posted a 3.48 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, while striking out 40 batters. In 40.2 IPs in June 2008, he posted a 3.10 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, while striking out 39 batters. Of course, his 2008 wasn’t altogether useful, as he ended up with a 5.01 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Still, he was a tad unlucky (.323 BAbip). Still, those brief pockets of success shouldn’t make his 2009 all that astounding (4.24 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 177 Ks). However, his 2009 was blessed with a .278 BAbip. These two BAbips suggest we can average out 2008 and 2009 and crystal ball Sanchez’s 2010. Magic eight ball says: 4.50 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 167 Ks). There is a lot to like in his ability to K a batter per inning. Continue reading
h2h Corner 