Posts Tagged ‘john lannan’

Nat Pack: Washington’s Rotation Full of Fantasy Baseball Value for @FP911

Nat Pack: Washington’s Rotation Full of Fantasy Baseball Value for FantasyPros911 (http://fp911.com/nat-pack-washingtons-rotation-full-of-fantasy-baseball-value/). A detailed look at the 4.5 starting pitchers for the Washington Nationals and their fantasy baseball and roto value.

h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

‘Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Corey Patterson – One time Oriole great (I kid), Patterson is getting consistent playing time for the Jays. In the last week, he went 11/29, scored eight runs and hit two homers. He now has four bombs and seven steals on the year. Last year, Patterson hit .269/.315/.406 with eight homers and 21 steals in 341 plate appearances for the Orioles. At this point, a 10 HR, 20 SB campaign is almost a given. There will be a dry spell, but, so far, he has cut down on the strike-outs a tad. Patterson is now a quality player for 12-team leagues, my god.

Allen Craig – Even without the second base eligibility, Craig would have been a star over the last week (11/22, eight RBIs). Also with just 98 at bats, Craig is the 16th ranked second baseman on the year – and can only go up. Craig, an eighth round pick in 2006, has torched minor league pitching (.308/.369/.517) and AAA especially (.321/.380/.548). With the various injuries surrounding the Cardinals’ offense, Craig’s bat will find a consistent place. As that happens, he’s going to hit over .300 with at least 10 more homers on the year. Sounds like the makings of a near top-10 second baseman.

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h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

Lately I’ve had too many meandering thoughts to give you something consistently coherent.

Thoughts such as: Remember last year when I gave periodic updates on my running? Well, I’m somewhat ashamed to admit, but it took me a long time to get back to good fitness after I fractured a bone in my left heel, but I have. Last night, I ran five miles in 34:53 – which I was stoked about. I’ve been out of town recently, so I haven’t been to the grocery store, which means no bananas, which means my calves are rocks right now – but it was worth it. Oh – and what I’m actually ashamed to admit – I listened to the Dixie Chicks cover of “You Cant Hurry Love” three times, grooved to some Fallout Boy, Kanye (Stronger, please), Pat Green, and, of course Katy Perry!

Meandering thought number two: why cant people use automated machines? It is 2010 people, and we’re almost done with it. The CVS stores in D.C. have instituted automated tellers and it takes me about 30 seconds to pay with a credit card – you have to push like four buttons! Yet other people need assistance, get confused, try to pay with cash, come on – it’s a plastic world! I’m grateful for Bank of America leading the way in ATM functionality, but recently I stood behind someone for four minutes as they couldn’t figure out how to slide their card in and out – then they kept inserting checks upside down. I had more checks and spent half the time!

Last meandering thought: luck and fantasy are intertwined. This is more present in football because there are 12-14 games total, so there is a super small sample size. Further, it’s really hard to know which teams are good and bad. Nevertheless luck is involved in fantasy baseball as well (and I’m not necessarily talking about FIP, BAbip, HR/FB, etc.). So I’m going to take this spot to thank my good luck charm, my girlfriend. First, I’ve allowed her to open several of my baseball card packs lately – she was 2/2 in landing me Topps Million Card unlocks and got me the retro looking Cal Ripken card. Then, last night, when she opened a Topps 1987 pack (complete with 13-year-old bubble gum that she thinks is gross) she pulled the Barry Bonds rookie – not too shabby. But I must thank her for demanding I select Carlos Gonzalez in my NL-only keeper league – he has more than made up for the Nate McLouth (outright dropped) and Jason Bay (mercifully traded) terrible picks.

Hopefully reading the below will ignite the neurons that lead to an h2h or roto championship!

Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Danny Espinosa – In one game against the hapless Mets, Espinosa made a life-long dream come true by hitting a grannie. Over the last seven days he has batted .400, hit three HRs and added nine RBIs – most of the damage done against the Mets on Tuesday September 7 (two HRs, six RBIs). Still, he wasn’t doing anything super spectacular in the minors (.268 with 22 HRs). For the time being, however, he is someone of interest in NL-only leagues.

JJ Hardy – Maybe because I loved the Hardy Boys books growing up, I’ve simply transferred that love to JJ Hardy. He hasn’t done much this year until recently (.400 AVG, one HR and nine RBIs over the last seven days). With all the crap people are running out there in the middle infield, I’d definitely give Hardy a long look going forward.

Russell Branyan – People need power, right? I hear all this noise about this being the year of the pitcher (it isn’t really, but whatever), yet people let Branyan (four Hrs over the last seven days) sit on the wire? Ditto for Jim Thome. Remember, chicks dig the long ball.

Logan Morrison – I’ve written about Morrison intermittently over the year. He was someone I thought had a clearer path than Mike Stanton to the majors because of Morrison’s approach at the plate. While I was wrong about who would reach the majors first, I’m pretty confident that Morrison will be a more reliable fantasy player. He simply avoids outs. Over the last seven days he has a .440 AVG and has scored eight runs. In 151 MLB ABs, he has a .318 AVG and .431 OBP. When you get on base that much you score. If you need runs, he is a must add.

Dexter Fowler – Fowler is another of my and Katy’s favorites. He’s had an up and down year, but has put together an impressive seven-day stretch: .345 AVG and six runs. In just 358 ABs this season, Fowler has managed to lead the league in triples, and while the average isn’t nice (.251 on the year), he flat-out gets on base (.350 OBP in 2010, .363 last year, and .399 over six minor league seasons). Clearly he is a darling in OBP leagues and less so in AVG ones, but he’ll score for you.

Seth Smith – Speaking of the Rockies, Seth Smith seems to make late-season cameos on Katy Perry’s All-stars quite frequently – and with good reason. Over the last seven days, he hit .353, hit a homerun and scored seven runs. For those of you tallying at home, that brings him to 17 round trippers on the year. He is an under-the-radar 20-HR producer. He is also someone who is easily utilized: don’t start him against lefties (career against southpaws: .190/.267/.331) or away (career on the road: .245/.316/.400). So if he has a week with lots of home games against righties, grab him.

Chris Capuano – Fact: four years ago Capuano was fantasy relevant. Fact: over the last seven days Capuano was a fantasy star (12 IPs, one win, a 1.50 ERA and 0.83 WHIP). Those innings were accumulated against St. Louis and Philadelphia – not exactly Pittsburgh and San Diego. But is he useful going forward? Sort of. Basically he is what he was four long years ago: a pitcher with an ERA around 4.00 who will strike-out 7.90 batters per nine innings. I think you’ll be surprised at how useful a line like that is.

John Lannan – With all the Nationals making Katy Perry’s All-stars lately, you’d think they were the best team ever and this is yet another appearance for John Lannan. Over the last seven days, Lannan struck out seven, won a ball game and posted a 1.29 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Obviously a super small sample size and the outing was against Pittsburgh. Further, he doesn’t really strike anyone out (4.48 per nine in his career), so, unless he is pitching against the Pirates, there have to be better options out there.

Dillon Gee – Yes, Dillon Gee is a real person’s name. And, no, he was not a member of the Bee Gees. Gee had an impressive debut (seven IPs, one win, a 1.29 ERA and 0.71 WHIP), during which he took a no-hitter into the sixth inning. According to Amazin’ Avenue, Gee is the Mets #20 best prospect and “has the unfortunate stigma of being a small right handed pitcher with a mediocre fastball.” He had a 4.96 ERA in the minors this year and wasn’t much better last year (4.10). While he has shown some promise at the lower levels, it’s unlikely that Gee will be much help for fantasy teams.

Carlos Zambrano – Way back on August 5, I said Carlos Zambrano was prime to be a useful player down the stretch. Since that time, in six starts, he has four wins, a 1.98 ERA and 30 Ks in 36.1 IPs. Most notably, Big Z dominated the Mets (sure I know, it’s the hapless Mets) over the last seven days, striking out eight batters, posting a 2.57 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. I like him as an above average match-ups play going forward.

Derek Holland – I’m not sure my man-love has been fully documented for Holland yet – he has a long and successful career ahead of him. So, let me let his last seven days of performance tell a tale, a tale of 13 Ks in 11.1 IPs, a sublime 3.18 ERA and miniscule 1.06 WHIP. For the year he is posting an 8.85 K-rate, with a 4.31 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. That k-potential doesn’t normally sit unowned on the wire. Go, seek him out and let him lead you to a championship.

Then you’re cold…then you’re no…then you’re out…then you’re down

Daisuke Matsuzaka – We saw a lot of the bad of Dice-K over the last seven days (10.1 IPs, 10.45 ERA and 1.84 WHIP). But there was some good, namely 10 Ks. So while he mercilessly destroyed your ratios, he did help you in Ks. I still like Matsuzaka as a fantasy asset however, he just makes your work for it. If Matsuzaka is starting for you late in the week, you’ll have a clear picture on what you need. If you need Ks and aren’t worried about ERA and WHIP, Dice-K is great, if you need to help your ratios, you need to bench or drop Dice-K. It’s pretty simple. At the start of the week, I’d be careful about using him because he can do some irrevocable harm. I will add that he is subject to the whims of the strand rate more so than some other pitchers because he walks so many batters (4.14 per nine IPs).

Bronson Arroyo – I am always happy to get twitter questions, but it sometimes makes me a bit nervous. A good follower of mine asked whether he should start Arroyo this week or Zambrano. I cited Arroyo’s success against and in Colorado, but ultimately thought Big Z was the better pitcher, so you should roll the dice with him. Thankfully, Arroyo pitched poorly and hasn’t done well over the last seven days (10.1 IPs, five Ks, an 8.71 ERA and 1.65 WHIP). While Arroyo typically pitches well at the end of the year (3.40 ERA/1.18 WHIP in 390 September/October innings), his 4.09 ERA is a bit of a mirage this year (.245 BAbip). I’d be real careful about how I use Arroyo down the stretch.

Andre Ethier – Ethier has been abysmal lately (3/20 over the last seven days and 26/101 over the last 30). He is getting murdered by southpaws — .224/.277/.336. So only start him when he is facing a righty starting pitcher.

Jose Lopez – Why is he owned in 37% of Yahoo! leagues? He went 5/27 last week, 24/103 over the last 30 days and 125/525 over the season. He has been brutal – drop him for anyone, please.

James Loney – The Dodgers are a listless bunch – they have the out-of-contention malaise going big time. Loney hasn’t escaped the disease (4/17 over the last seven days; 21/97 over the last 30 days). What’s worse? The 69% owned first baseman has all of nine HRs this season. Please drop him for the 41% owned Gaby Sanchez or 12% owned Logan Morrison. Either player is like way more valuable

All stats as of noon September 9, 2010

FB101’s 411: Be sure you know how to judge a hot streak. Russell Branyan, Logan Morrison, Carlos Zambrano and Derek Holland make good adds. Keep your eye on Danny Espinosa, JJ Hardy, Dillon Gee, Seth Smith, Dexter Fowler, and Chris Capuano. You are allowed to give up on Jose Lopez and James Loney.

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h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

Again, I’m going to use this space to talk about a Reality TV show near and dear to my heart, Big Brother.

In case you missed it, Matt used the diamond power of veto last night to save himself and, de facto, evict Kathy. It was a long time coming for Kathy who was useless, boring and seemed dumb. At what point does “flying under the radar” turn into just plan ole poor performance. Anyway, Kathy deserved to go a few weeks ago.

Still, I was hoping Matt would put up Enzo. I use to like Enzo, but he has proven himself to be a craptastic player (ala Colby in Survivor All-stars). He hasn’t won or come close to winning anything. He talks like a fool (but, I must admit, is sometimes funny). I think Matt realizes that the brigade is a useless alliance for him and will switch to Britney, Ragan and Lane. It’d be a fierce battle between them and Hayden/Brendon/Enzo. Ultimately, Britney has the power this week and I think she nominates Brendon and Hayden. We shall see.

Either way, it’s been a great season, thanks mostly to crazy drama Queen Rachel who reminds me of Jenn from the Evil Dick season. Who do you think is going to win? I’ve still got my money on Lane, but Matt has proven to be intelligent about the game.

Anyway, you know the drill here. With time running out on the season, you need to make the strategic moves that put you over the top. So let’s delve into a bit of the performances over the past seven days.

Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Coco Crisp – Crisp remains owned in too few leagues (19% of Yahoo!). I’ve written about him a lot. So I’ll just leave you with how helpful his last week would have been to your team: sex runs, one HR, four RBIs, four SBs and a .407 AVG).

Yuniesky Betancourt – Betancourt would have to be as hot as he is (.381 AVG, two HRs over the last seven days; five HRs and a .282 AVG over the last 30) for me to mention him. He is simply not a trustworthy fantasy commodity. He doesn’t get on base (one walk this month) and doesn’t have much upside. In a super deep league, where every viable starter is snapped up, sure Betancourt could be owned. I’d feel sorry for that owner, though.

Wilson Betemit – I’ve talk about Betemit in the past and sort of like him. He isn’t getting a ton of playing time, but when he has played he’s produced (last seven days: .368 AVG, two HRs). He seems to destroy the ball at home, so, if you need a hitter pick-up during a Royals home stand, Betemit isn’t the worst option for deep leaguers.

Matt Tuiasosopo – I mostly included Tuiasosopo because his last name is so cool to say. It even sounds good in my internal monologue. While he has had a decent seven-day stretch (two HRs, seven RBIs and a .333 AVG), this will likely be the best seven-day stretch of his career. Given he qualifies at every IF position except SS and the OF, he could be a speculative add in Al-only leagues, but don’t expect anything.

Gregor Blanco – It must be the mid-80s with all the Royals making the All-star team. Blanco has been a secretive stolen base weapon over the past few weeks. Last week alone, he swiped four bases and batted .375. If you need steals, speedster Blanco would be a good ad.

Paul Janish – With Orlando Cabrera on the DL, Janish has been given ample playing time and, well, he hasn’t been bad. Over the last seven days, Janish hit .368, and added one HR and one steal. There isn’t much upside, but he won’t kill your batting and will score the occasional run. He’s certainly more attractive than Betancourt.

Brandon Inge – Inge came off the DL swinging (two HRs and a .273 AVG over the last seven days) and is capable of prodigious home run binges. He is only owned in nine percent of leagues, yet could provide some great power numbers down the stretch (especially RBIs if he bats behind the continually walkable Miguel Cabrera).

Bud Norris – Please, just pick Bud Norris up already. He is only six percent owned, but has killed it recently (14 IPs, two wins, 18 Ks, 2.57 ERA, and 0.71 WHIP). Grab him before your league mates do.

Bryan Bullington – Speaking of the Royals, because, apparently, Katy loves blue, Bullington, a one-time number one-overall pick a long time ago, secured his first career win in a spot start for the Royals. Over the last seven days, he pitched eight innings, didn’t allow a run and posted a 0.38 WHIP. He gets the White Sox tomorrow, which could be a good outing. If you need a starter and are in a deep league, you might as well give the Bouillabaisse a try.

Brandon Lyon & Wilton Lopez – Brandon Lyon is the de facto Astros closer. If you miss him, Wilton Lopez could pick up occasional saves. Lyon is owned in only 20% of leagues, Lopez is only three percent owned. Every save counts in a lot of leagues, don’t be shy about adding one of these guys.

Ross Ohlendorf – Ohlendorf has had a sneaky good season (3.90 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 79 Ks in 108.1 IPs). He was even better over the last seven days (14.2 IPs, 12 Ks, 1.84 ERA and 0.82 WHIP). The biggest negative about Ohlendorf is that he doesn’t get to pitch against his own team. All kidding aside, he does have a minusculely lucky BAbip (.291) and his FIP is 4.43. Basically, he is benefiting from a lucky HR/FB rate (7.7%) which is about three points higher than his career norm. Still, as a low-cost option, Ohlendorf isn’t bad. He certainly won’t just fall off a cliff. I’d avoid starting him at homer-friendly parks though.

John Lannan – Don’t look know, but John Lannan is on a K-binge (last seven days: 12.1 IPs, 10 Ks, 2.92 ERA and 1.05). He has actually been fairly useful over his last 23.1 IPs (3.09 ERA, 1.20 WHIP). In addition, he has been a bit unlucky this year (.333 BAbip, 67.4% strand rate) and he has a FIP around 4.67. Still, he doesn’t have much upside, as he has never really posted a useful MLB K-rate.

Then you’re cold…then you’re no…then you’re out…then you’re down

Carl Pavano – The Pavano resurgence has been Alyssa Milano’ed (last week: two starts, seven Ks, a 6.57 ERA and 2.11 WHIP). He’s been downright horrible over his last 40 IPs (3.66 ERA and 1.58 WHIP). Sure he has a slightly lucky BAbip on the year (.285), but his FIP (3.72) isn’t much higher than his ERA (3.52). So what do we make of his last few miserable outings? I think they are just random poor occurrences. Over the last 28 days, Pavano has a .409 BAbip, over the last 14, a .431. If your trading deadline hasn’t passed, Pavano makes a good buy low. I wouldn’t worry about him going forward.

Fausto Carmona – It’s tough when a two-start pitcher takes it upon himself to royally screw you (7.36 ERA, 1.82 WHIP and just four Ks). Those Ks are the reason I don’t like pitchers like Carmona. There is no help when he struggles. At least Pavano (by no means a strike-out pitcher) secured seven punch-outs last week. Dr. Faustus is what he is this year, a guy with about a 4.00 ERA and risky WHIP who doesn’t K anyone. I’d be careful when I use him going forward.

Edinson Volquez – Weeks like the last one (5.06 ERA and 1.78 WHIP) highlight the reasons I told you to be weary of Volquez. While his to-date Ks are nice (35 in 34 IPs), I don’t think you can expect much relief in the ratios. In his short season to date, he has an 80.9% strand rate. Sure he has a .334 BAbip (which is unlucky), but his FIP is 5.68. I love his K upside. He is someone it’d be nice to have in the arsenal to throw out there if I wasn’t worried about my ERA/WHIP, but other than that, I don’t see Volquez as being particularly helpful.

Matt Kemp – Matt Kemp has been a top 80 player this year, which isn’t bad (unless you compare that to the top five some were predicting). Kemp, as his last seven days can attest (.087 AVG) has never got into a groove. He’ll still end up a 20/20 player, but, at this point, is a certain disappointment. So, what caused the 2010 pitfall? Well, his career BAbip is .349, while it rests at .305 this season. So there has been a bit of fluctuation. Of course, Kemp hasn’t been around forever, so we don’t know exactly what his BAbip performance will be. In addition, Kemp has lost his eye at the plate. He is on pace for about 30 more Ks this year than last. He is also getting caught stealing at a near 50% rate – far higher than anything we’ve seen from him. Looking into the crystal ball, he’ll be a top four round pick next year with some upside. It’s just a shame he didn’t continue his career arc. But, hey, players don’t (Nick Markakis)

Miguel Olivo – It’s borderline dumps time for Olivo. He has come back to earth after a scorching hot 60% of the season. Quite simply, we all knew this would happen as he has never been someone who could get on base 30% of the time, let alone hit .300. If there are more attractive options out there, feel free to bombs away. At this point, I’d like to have a backstop who didn’t destroy by AVG/OBP every week.

All stats as of noon on August 20, 2010

FB101’s 411: Be sure you know how to judge a hot streak. Crisp, Lyon, Lopez, Norris, Ohlendorf, and Blanco make good adds. Keep your eye on Inge, Lannan, Janish and Betemit. You are allowed to sort of give up on Miguel Olive.

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