Posts Tagged ‘Jose Guillen’

h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

Katy Perry has also wondrously semi-debauched Sesame Street with a slightly cleaned up version of Hot N Cold.  That is all.

Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Mike Aviles – Aviles is available in a lot of leagues. Aviles hit .462 over the last seven days and added three HRs. It appears the Royals will give Aviles the playing time he deserves. Ipso facto, Aviles should be rostered.

Danny ValenciaValencia has been on absolute fire as of late (.391 AVG, three HRs and seven RBIs over the last seven days). However, I wouldn’t bank on him continuing power stroke. He slugged only .469 in the minors and just .373 in AAA this season. In deep leagues, I’d be interested, but he doesn’t profile as someone who can help 10- and 12-teamers.

Jose Guillen – Katy only included Jose Guillen because he has the propensity to absolutely go off and be one of the best hitters in baseball. There is an inkling that this might occur. Over the last seven days, Guillen went 7/14 and added two round trippers and eight RBIs. If he hits one more HR, I’d think of adding him for the h2h play-offs. It’s hard to catch lightening in a bottle this late, but Guillen could definitely be that spark.

Dan Johnson – Johnson hit three HRs over the last seven days. He has hit eight total since 2008. He did hit 18 bombs in 2007. However, the first base/DH position is pretty cloudy for the Rays. Carlos Pena, Brad Hawpe and Matt Joyce all need at bats and are left-handed. Unless there is an injury that frees up ABs, Johnson won’t have a ton of value.

Chris Johnson – If you listened to me on the radio Monday night, you would have heard me say I think Chris Johnson is in for a big week. So far, he has already had a good last seven days (.364 AVG, two HRs and five RBIs). I don’t think Johnson will replicate this season next year, but for the next 10 days, I wouldn’t mind riding his hot streak.

Carlos Gomez – True story, I traded Ian Desmond for Carlos Gomez in an NL-only league. That team is now in first and I am in second. It’s depressing. Well, Gomez has actually looked good of late (.350 AVG and three steals over the last seven days). As long as Gomez is playing, he has a chance to get on base, which means he’ll try to steal. If you need to solidify that category, he is a very available option.

Bud Norris – Another radio star Joel Henard and I discussed Monday. I don’t understand how Norris is only owned in 12 percent of leagues. Over the last seven days, he has two wins, 13 strike-outs, a 1.93 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. He also plays for the Astros – what more do you want? Add him!

Jake WestbrookKaty is absolutely shocked at Westbrook’s ownership levels. In his last start, he went eight shut-out innings with a 1.12 WHIP. Sure, he doesn’t strike out a ton of batters but he has a 3.26 ERA and 1.24 WHIP since joining the Cardinals. I wish I owned him.

Jhoulys Chacin – Here is a guy I don’t wish I own because I don’t have to because I own him (worst sentence construction ever?). In his last start, Chacin went eight shut-out innings and posted a 1.12 WHIP (somewhat identical to Westbrook’s last outing). Chacin has all the makings of a star and has been phenomenal this year (8.83 K/9, 3.30 ERA and 3.47 FIP). Please add him, he deserves it.

Then you’re cold…then you’re no…then you’re out…then you’re down

Mat Latos – One of the reasons my NL-only team is in second place – the struggles of Mat Latos. Over the last seven days, he managed to pitch just 1.1 IPs, yet he gave up eight runs on nine hits. He remains a good pitcher, but he hasn’t really tested his arm this much in terms of pitches and innings. If I’m close in ERA, I might be careful in how I use Latos in his next one or two outings. He should get the Dodgers in his next start, a team he has dominated this year.

John Danks – On April 30, Danks had three wins, a 1.55 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 rate, and 8.1 K/9 rate. At that time, I suggested people try to trade him. While he wasn’t entirely brutal over the last week (13.1 IPs, seven Ks, a 7.43 ERA and 1.35 WHIP), his 2010 K-rate has come down to 6.83 (just like last year), the walk rate has gone up to 2.94 and he has a 3.80 ERA and 3.71 FIP. I like Danks, but he was never the stud the beginning of the season made him look like. He remains an upper echelon match-ups play going forward.

Gio Gonzalez – In the same column I referenced above, I also suggested folks trade Gio Gonzalez. Like Danks, he too has had a tough seven days (eight IPs, eight Ks, a 7.88 ERA and a 2.25 WHIP). All of that is the result of one poor outing against Kansas City (seven runs in two IPs). I like Gonzalez a lot, even though he has benefited from a reduced HR/9 rate. He is a pitcher I am confident posting an ERA from 3.70 – 4.00 with a sterling K-rate (say 8.00 – 9.00).

Brandon Phillips – Joel and I talked about the brutality of Phillips recent stretch on Monday. It’s been bad (2/25 over the last seven days). What I had forgotten about was the bruised right hand he suffered about a month ago. At this point, you can’t wait for Phillips to come out of his funk; you should drop him and grab a player like Eric Young.

Elvis Andrus – Andrus has been borderline useless over the last seven days (.179 AVG and four runs). What’s worse is that he has been crashing back to earth after a hot start to the season. Sure, he has improved his OBP by about .020 points, but his slugging percentage is .305. That, my friends, is Wily Tavares-esque. What’s worse is he is only 30/44 in steal attempts. I still believe in Andrus for next year. He is only 21. However, for the rest of this season, Mike Aviles might be a better option right now.

All stats as of noon September 21, 2010

FB101’s 411: Be sure you know how to judge a hot streak. Aviles Chris Johnson, Chacin, Norris, and Westbrook make good adds. Keep your eye on Guillen, Gomez, and Valencia. You are allowed to sort of give up on Elvis Andrus and Brandon Phillips.

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h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

This week I want to remind you that everyone has a bad week. In h2h leagues, you aren’t going to win them all (unless you’re Biff), so you need to recognize what is a one week aberration (say like Katy Perry having sweaty breasts) and what predicts a large trend.

‘Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

David Freese – I’ll be the nine-millionth person to make a Mr. Freeze joke, simply because I believe Batman and Robin to be the quintessential superhero movie. Unlike his gubernatorial counterpart, Freese has been scorching hot lately (.519 AVG, three HRs and 14 RBIs). Sure, this is likely his best seven-day stretch of the season, but he should be owned in most deep leagues. In 112 Major League ABs, he has a .348 average. In the minors, he hit .308 over 1,456 at bats. He is definitely capable of putting up an average that doesn’t kill you. He also gets to hit behind Matt Holliday, Albert Pujols and Colby Rasmus, meaning he should get his share of RBIs. Not a bad combination.

John Buck – Sure “Fear the Deer” swept the country last week, but John Buck took it to a whole new level (.450 AVG, four HRs and eighth RBIs). Once part of a massive deal that included Carlos Beltran, Buck has never lived up to the hype that the high profile trade indicated. He is a career .236 hitter, who hasn’t hit double digit HRs since 2007. Nothing to see here.

Nick Swisher – Swisher was, just seven days ago, in Katy’s doghouse. Now he’s batting clean-up for her All-stars. Still that didn’t stop me from telling people to buy on Nick the Swish (only 50 percent owned in Yahoo! leagues). Over the last week, he scored eight runs, smacked two HRs, knocked in seven and hit .467. The batting average won’t be this high, but he’ll put up runs, RBIs and HRs week after week. If he’s available, grab him

JD Drew – About the only Red Sox putting up a fight against the mighty Orioles, Drew has hit .435 with three HRs and seven RBIs over the last seven days. May is typically Drew’s best month of the season. For his career he has hit .281 and smacked the second most HRs of his career during May, most likely in celebration of Cinco de Mayo. He’s a good fourth outfielder to have during this stretch, yet is only 34 percent owned.

Scott Hairston – The fighting Hairstons have made a fantasy appearance! Over the last seven days, Scott surged along with the surging Padres. He hit .368 and added two HRs and steals. At this point, we know who Hairston his: a 17 HR, 10 SB, .265 hitter. That’s not worthless; he should be gobbled up in deep and NL-only leagues.

Jon Garland – Garland has a pretty spectacular two-start last seven days (13 IPs, 13 Ks, a 0.69 ERA and 1.08 WHIP). For his career, he’s never posted the type of K-rate we are seeing now (4.7 career versus 5.9 in 2010). Still, maybe he likes pitching in cavernous NL West parks. His k-rate for the Dodgers last year was 6.4. Garland is capable of posting 10 wins, an ERA around 4.00 and a WHIP around 1.35. Will he hit those numbers? Probably not, but he could come close.

Jhoulys Chacin – It’s not often that a youngster strikes Katy’s fancy in his first week in the Bigs. Well Chacin, a big time Rockies prospect, but up a lot of Ks (nine) in just eight innings. He also didn’t allow an earned run, while getting a victory. This K-rate is somewhat to be expected (he struck out 13 in 11 MLB IPs last season – of course he also walked 11). The walk has been a major issue for Chacin, as he has progressed (6.1 BB/9 in AAA). He did bring this number down to a more manageable 4.6 in 2010, but that was in only 21.1 IPs. He’s a good speculative add, but it’ll likely be a real rocky season (pardon the pun).

Chris Volstad – Volstad pitched a complete game, one-run, eight-K affair last week. Sure, it was against the Nationals, but this guy has real potential. Volstad, just 23, was a first round pick in 2005 and has a career 1.36 WHIP with a 5.7 K/9 rate. He might not find himself this year, but he has pitched himself into streaming worthy already.

Then you’re cold…then you’re no…then you’re out…then you’re down

Mark Buehrle – The best thing I can say about Buehrle is that I was playing against him when he threw his perfect game, yet my opponent had him benched. Last week he had two disastrous starts: 6.94 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and just five Ks in 11.2 IPs. Further, he hasn’t allowed less than four runs in any start except opening day. I wouldn’t be starting him at the moment.

Johan Santana – Santana hurt teams mightily over the last seven days: 9.2 IPs, seven Ks, a 9.31 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP. April and May are, historically, Santana’s worst months, so it might get a tad worse over the next 30 days. However, he hasn’t been miserable in 2010 (29 Ks in 34 IPs, a 4.50 ERA and 1.29 WHIP). He is 31, so his days as a fantasy dominator might be nearing conclusion, but he’ll still post useable WHIPs and a good K-rate.

Randy Wolf – Wolf pitched a bit over his ability last year. And he pitched a bit under his ability last week (13 IPs, nine Ks, a 4.15 ERA and 1.77 WHIP). His 2009 1.10 WHIP won’t be happening this year, but he’ll likely end up around 1.35. Last week was just some bad shakes, he’ll still be a slightly above average fantasy starter.

Jose Guillen – To quote the plant Earth, “welcome back Jose Guillen.” Over the last seven days, Guillen has hit .080 with just one RBI. He is clearly not this bad and, also, not as good as he was going. Guillen, if he remains sane/healthy, should hit around .270 with 20 HRs. He’s not bad, he’s just not Hercules.

Adam Lind – Lind started off hot, but left a cold wake the last seven days (one run and a .120 AVG). Not surprisingly he has a .133 BAbip during that span. This is really just a seven day blip on what will be a pretty darn good season.

Dan Uggla – Weeks like this are why I advocated for Uggla to be a potential trade chip. Over the last seven days, he has hit .158. The .295 AVG he has posted so far is a fraud. We know what Uggla is at this point: a 30-HR hitting, .260 batting useful second basemen. If anyone is willing to buy a batting average surge, go ahead and sell. Otherwise, just relax and enjoy his streakiness.

Prince Fielder – Fielder clearly didn’t use Ryan Howard’s mega-contract as incentive to smack the ball around (.130 AVG and one HR over the last seven days). He’s had an abysmal start to the season and people are beginning to wonder if he’s an every other year player. He was great in 2007 and 2009 and slightly above average in 2008. Still, he’s never been a fast starter (career: .271 AVG with his second smallest HR total in March/April). I expect him to pick it up big over the next few weeks.

All stats as of May 4.

FB101’s 411: Be sure you know how to judge a hot streak. Swisher and Freese make good adds. Keep your eye on Garland, Chacin and Volstad. You are allowed to give up on Mark Buehrle.

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