h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

‘Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Austin Jackson – Action Jackson (Ajax for short) over the last seven days flashed 2010’s brilliance: 11/29 with a home, a steal and seven RBIs. That brought his yearly RBI total to…16.  But no one owns him for those numbers. To date,Jackson is just 4/6 in SB attempts, after going 27/33 last season. Clearly his speed pace is way down, mostly do to his complete inability to get on base (.227 average, .284 OBP). Not surprisingly, his .396 BABip last year is being replaced by a somewhat more human .327. A large portion of that has to do with more ground and fly balls and less line drives. He is being pitched roughly the same as last year and isn’t swinging and missing more or making demonstrably less contact. Is the last seven days a sign of resurgence? Sort of, I think. He’s not this bad of a hitter; he’ll get to .260 with his typical seven percent walk rate (i.e., .315 OBP). He’ll get 22-25 steals. In a lot of leagues, that is useful.

h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry (Hot ‘N’ Cold Fantasy Baseball) All-Stars

Katy Perry and her awesome song “E.T.” remained atop the Billboard Charts for fifth week in a row. There is a competitor mounting though in Britney Spears. Her tune, “Till the World Ends,” got a huge bump based on rumors of a potential remix with Nicki Minaj and Ke$ha. Yes that is the most ridiculous sentence I have ever written.

Still, there’s a lesson in the inanity. If you’re in first, you need to scrape and claw to maintain it. If you’re behind the leader, it doesn’t hurt to remix your roster a bit…as long as you’re bringing on the likes of a Ke$ha.

Remember, players get hot and cold over a seven-day period, it’s as sure as the samples are small.

That is why Katy created the Hot ‘N’ Cold All-stars.

‘Cause you’re hot…you’re yes…you’re in…you’re up

Matt Joyce – It’s hard to beat an 8/16 with two HRs seven-day stretch. He was like the Brave Ulysses if you ask me (man that was awful). Still, those were the first homers of the season for Joyce, who is somewhat underwhelming in the power department. In 98 plate appearances this year his isolated power is .161,

h2h Corner ~ Check You Out On the Flip Side: Daryl Boston

A guy with the last name, Boston, clearly has to have some music in him. I think Boston is an underrated band — they had several good tunes – all of which Detective Dan Stark would love!

However, that said, doesn’t everyone own a good impression of Stevie Wonder. All you have to do is stare off into space and move your head around melodiously while tickling some ivory.

Also the majority of people like popular music, it’s why it’s…ummm…popular and why Katy Perry has fantastic bosoms (or versa-vicea). Still, popular music in the 80s is a bit different than it is now, so I wonder (get it?) if he has remained a fan of popular music. It is kind of hard to see Daryl Boston grooving to Miley Cyrus like all the kids do. And, in all fairness, because I like Miley, Stevie Wonder had a much better groove than Cyrus does.

Boston was the seventh overall selection by the Chicago White Sox in 1981. He torched the minors as a 21-year-old in 1984 (.312 AVG and .533 SLG) before getting the call. His first two stints wouldn’t be as successful as Stevie Wonder’s career (heck they weren’t even as successful as Rat’s career) as he would post a .213/.254/.305 line in 130 games.

But the White Sox would stick with him and he’d show some glimmers of first-round talent, going .261/.317/.424 in 159 games from 1986-1987. Unfortunately that would be the height of his tenure with the Sox, and he’d be signed, sealed, and delivered off waivers by the Mets in 1990 after accumulating just 2.4 WAR over seven seasons in Chicago.

It was a timely acquisition for the Mets, as Boston was hitting his years 27 – 29 seasons. During that time he posted a .266./.338/.429 line – much more in line with his minor league trajectory. He was worth 3.9 WAR in just 382 games with the Mets – this span would be the high point of his career.

After the 1992 season, Boston would spend one decent year in Colorado and one unsuccessful year in Pinstripes before leaving baseball. Still, Boston most certainly found the Key to Life – he had an occupation he loved and a healthy fondness for music and comedy.

Follow h2h Corner on Twitter (http://twitter.com/h2h_Corner)

For the history of this series, check out this article: Check You Out On the Flip Side: Howard Johnson.

h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry All-Stars IV

Welcome to the latest installment of the weekly hot and cold fantasy trends update.

Speaking of cold, I can’t believe I’ve watched this much hockey in the last week, nor has Washington D.C. been this abuzz with hockey talk. Of course, all that came to a shattering halt last night when the Caps got demolished, at home, in a game seven, by the Pittsburgh Penguins. I deride hockey as much as the next guy. I rarely know what is going on, I can’t follow the puck, etc. But I was CAPtivated by the Caps (I went to college to write like this, can’t you tell?).

Anyway, yesterday’s game got me thinking about hype. Essentially, fantasy sports writers are ever-competing serial hypers. I try to tread lightly when I hype and only back ideas I completely believe in.

Before the season, I absolutely, deeply and dearly loved Adrian Gonzalez, Jason Bay and Javvy Vazquez. I’m happy with their achievements so far, because, well, it’s not enough for me if they are trying their hardest (do you hear me Dan Uggla?). On the other hand, I’ve deadpanned people like Chris Davis, Josh Beckett, etc. It’s nice to be right. Of course, I’ve hyped some losers in my day: Uggla, Bronson Arroyo, and Randy Johnson to name three.

Still, I’d like to think I was most diligent about AGON, Bay and Vazquez and I think I was. I guess what I’m saying is that yesterday’s Caps game made me thankful for the times when the product lives up to the hype. It is refreshing (like that Sprite commercial where the people jump into each other and turn into water like Spiderman’s hydro villain) when hype is fulfilled, like Lady Gaga’s follow-up to Just Dance, Poker Face.

But I digress, so let’s move on to things that matter to you, like who’s hot and likely unowned:

Jerry Hairston Jr. – Over the last week, Hairston (the one time Orioles phenom – I kid) received regular playing time and didn’t disappoint. He scored eight runs, hit two HRs, and stole two bases. Given his position eligibility (Hairston qualifies at second, shortstop and outfield in most leagues), Hairston could provide some real value this season. And, it’s not like he hasn’t put together productive seasons before. Just last year, while also playing in Cincinnati, Hairston hit .326 with 47 runs and 15 SBs in just 261 at bats. Hairston could be a sneaky source of runs and SBs. Hitting in the bandbox known as the Great American Ballpark certainly won’t hurt his numbers.

Adam Rosales – Speaking of the production benefits of playing in Cincinnati, Rosales scored six runs and bagged two HRs last week, while posting a .385 OBP. In 497 AAA at bats, Rosales hit 15 HRs, stole nine bases, and recorded a .306 AVE with a .358 OBP He is little old (26) for a prospect, but could provide some nice pop while Edwin Encarnacion is out.

Casey Kotchman – I’ve never liked Kotchman. Generally, I am not a fan of soft-hitting first basemen (Kotchman has never hit more than 14 HRs in a season). Still he managed to knock in 11 teammates last week, while hitting two HRs. These numbers are pretty streaky, but his season so far is in line with the 152 at bats he had with Atlanta in 2008. Kotchman is only 26, even though it seems like he has been around for a long time, so he should be entering his prime. He could hit mid-teens HRs and near 100 RBIs.

Todd Helton – For someone recently left for dead, Helton has had a remarkable season so far. Last week alone, he hit two HRs, while posting a .375 OBP. For the season, Todd Helton has hit .343 with four HRs and 20 RBIs – vintage Helton. Still, I can’t imagine this will continue. First, Helton was recently quoted – in talking about his troubled back – as saying “it’s still a battle, don’t get me wrong.” Second, his BABIP over the last 28 days is .389, last 14 days .405. His career BABIP is .336. Luck can continue, but typically doesn’t – expect a regression.

Brian Tallet – Tallet had a great game, albeit against the Oakland A’s, last week. He struck out seven in seven innings while allowing one run on two hits and two walks. For the year he has posted a 1.24 WHIP and struck out 29 batters in 36 IPs. Tallet is 31 and has been a reliever for the majority of his career. He was a second round draft pick in 2000 and has a career 3.71 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. You should keep your eye on him in case he continues posting a low WHIP and a good K-rate.

Manny Parra – Parra did post a 1.67 WHIP last week, though he had a nice 3.75 ERA. More importantly he struck out 13 batters over 12 innings. For the year, Parra has 36 Ks in 37.1 IPs. If you are looking for an upside starter, Parra, who is owned in 26 percent of Yahoo leagues, would be a solid bet.

D.J. Carrasco – Carrasco, the White Sox’ long reliever, pitched seven innings last week. In those innings he struck out nine batters, while posting a 2.57 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Carrasco could ultimately take over Jose Contreras’ rotation spot, so, in deep leagues, he might be someone to keep on your radar.

THE FLIP SIDE (the supposed good guys who are stinking up the joint)

Time to move on to those cold salamanders that are likely owned in your league, yet have sucked lately. These are the players who have been ice cold, alright, alright, alright, alright, alright, alright, alright, alright.

James Shields – People have been hating on Shields lately – not sure why. Sure, last week, he had a 7.50 ERA and 1.83 WHIP, but at least he posted seven Ks. For the year, his WHIP is a very useful 1.28 and he has stuck out 30 batters. Shields is more than a match-up pitcher, though just barely. If you are close in ERA/WHIP in a given week and he is playing on the road, you might want to bench him. Shields has a career 3.28 ERA and 1.13 WHIP at home, while a 4.71 ERA and 1.29 WHIP away.

Armando Galarraga – Galarraga had a horrible week for a two-start pitcher. Specifically, he hurt your ratios badly (8.49 ERA and 1.54 WHIP). For the last month, Galarraga has a 5.29 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. The wheels could be coming off the Galarraga wagon. If you can sell at pre-season draft value, I’d encourage you to do that.

Grady Sizemore – Talk about a ratio category killer: Sizemore hit .160 last week with a .250 OBP. Not surprisingly, he managed to score only two runs while knocking in just one. For the season he is hitting just .232 and not really getting on base (.313 OBP). And, when he doesn’t get on base, he can’t steal. Still, Sizemore is seeing his pitches. If someone is shopping him, I’m buying.

Alexei Ramirez – It was not a good week for the Ramirezes (unless of course your first name was Hanley). Aramis hit the DL, Manny got suspended, and Alexei got one hit in ten at bats. I never liked Alexei (LINK), but he is playing much worse than even I thought he would: .212 AVE, .244 OBP, one HR, 11 RBIs and six SBs. The steals aren’t bad, but the rest is regrettable.

Andre Ethier – I wish they had a stat for with Manny and without. I’ll sort of buttonhook it. In the first half of 2008 (pre-Manny), Ethier hit .283 with a .351 OBP and .459 slugging percentage. In the second half, Ethier hit .335 with a .409 OBP and .583 SLG. In March/April of 2009, Ethier hit .306 with a .423 OBP and .553 SLG. Last week, Ethier hit .115 with a .207 OBP. Ethier clearly has talent, but, just as clearly, he misses Manny’s presence in the Dodger’s lineup.

Brandon Inge – Last week, Inge hit .176. Yet, he is owned in 90 percent of Yahoo leagues. Over the last month, Inge has hit .260. He did add four HRs, which is why you own him. Well actually, you own him because he has catcher eligibility. Expect a .260 hitter with moderate pop from here on.

Josh Beckett – Beckett has been a weekly member of the Katy Perry All-Stars. So far, he has looked bad (6.42 ERA and 1.77 WHIP). Still, he has struck out 41 batters in 40.2 IPs. Given the great 1:1 strikeout to inning ratio, I think you have to stick with him and hope he finds a way to bring his ERA and WHIP down. If given the opportunity, I’d be buying him right now — that K-rate is pretty spectacular. You can lose the ratio categories if you have high-K pitchers like Beckett.

Scott Kazmir – According to Dave Cameron, the brilliant FanGraphs writer, “Scott Kazmir is broken.” Cameron finds that Kazmir lost his slider last year and, in so doing, “saw his GB% [groundball ratio] sink.” Kazmir did nothing last week (5.40 ERA, 2.20 WHIP, just two Ks) to alleviate these concerns. If you can find a buyer at near draft value, I’d pull the trigger.

David Ortiz – Ortiz managed a usable .364 OBP – that’s the good news. The bad news: .176 AVE, two runs, ZERO HRs and one RBI. Ortiz simply hasn’t been good in a long time. If someone’s buying low, I’m selling. People seem to think his bat speed looked great last Sunday – however, my little eye spied someone who was behind fastballs and “looked great” while he was fouling off change-ups. I’m not loving a power hitter who can’t yank the ball and is only UTIL eligible.

All stats are as of May 12.

h2h_Corner on Twitter

Join my FaceBook group

Fantasy Baseball 101 RSS Feed

h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry All-Stars II

Welcome to the latest installment of the weekly hot and cold fantasy trends update.

h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry All-stars

I wanted to write a column about the early hot/cold trends and how they can engulf owners. So, naturally Katy Perry popped into my head. This is one of my favorite running songs — I simply run faster while this song is playing. Weird, I know, but I’m fast — I ran four miles in 26:44 last week. Anyway, the song’s lyrics seem apropos for fantasy wheelings-and-dealings and well pubescent girls and the pre-pubescent boys that love them:

You change your mind
Like a girl changes clothes
Yeah you, PMS
Like a bitch
I would know

And you over think
Always speak
Cryptically
I should know
That you’re no good for me

In actuality, this entire column is my way of allowing myself to view Katy Perry YouTube videos.

So who’s hot?

Kosuke Fukudome — I detailed Fukudome’s hot start already. I want to reiterate that I think this is a mirage. I wouldn’t be buying him. Ride his hot strike if you have someone to drop, but don’t drop or trade anyone of value thinking this will continue.

Endy Chavez — Chavez is a somewhat interesting player. With all the love going to speedsters Nyjer Morgan, Dexter Fowler and Emilio Bonifacio, Chavez provides some good low-cost speed numbers. He stole 32 bases in 2004, and has a 162-game average of 17 SBs. He has been off and running early this year. He wont kill your batting average (about .270) and won’t provide any power, but could score some runs. He’s not as bad as you think.

Nyjer Morgan — Speaking of speedsters, I like Morgan more than Bonifacio and probably more than Chavez. He does bat in a nice spot of the order and should get some scoring love. He has more HR upside than Chavez and perhaps more upside than Fukudome. I’d be willing to bet he hits around .290 -.300 and registers a .355 OBP.

Chris Duncan – Duncan was a major league sleeper going into the 2008 season, after he hit 21 HRs in 127 games in 2007. However, he suffered some injuries and played in only 76 games, while hitting only six HRs. Duncan has appeared in 13 games so far, already hit two HRs and knocked in 11 runs. He could bat .270 or so with 20-25 HRs. If you pick him up, make sure you don’t play him against lefties. He wont likely play and if he does he wont do anything productive. He is a career .215 batter against southpaws.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Cabrera was a supposed breakout candidate last year after he hit .283 in 43 games in 2007. However, last year he struggled to a line of .259 with six HRs 48 runs and 47 RBIs. He is off to a good batting average start and could score near 100 runs and knock in around 70. That isn’t bad from a middle infielder. He was a .287 hitter in the minor leagues with a .350 OBP, so he could be a .300 hitter in the majors. I wouldn’t be selling much to get him though.

Jason Kubel – There has been lots of talk in the fantasy community about Kubel surrounding whether he will get the ABs or be stuck in a platoon or hurt. He will easily hit .270 and has some power (likely 20-25 HRs). If he could manage to hit lefties at all, there would be some more upside. In 221 at bats against southpaws, Kubel has hit just .240 with six HRs.

Cody Ross — Ross hit the quietest 22 HRs last year, yet people are surprised he is hitting it again. He doesn’t have much track record, but neither did Brett Boone. I like him as a low-cost power source, but he could hurt your batting average so tread lightly.

Cause you’re hot then you’re cold
You’re yes then you’re no
You’re in then you’re out
You’re up then you’re down
You’re wrong when it’s right

That said, lets head to those cold salamanders that are likely owned in your league. These are the players who have started ice cold, alright, alright, alright, alright, alright, alright, alright, alright.

Justin Upton — I’m not fond of young players. More often than not it takes longer than expected to take the leap. So, I don’t trust Upton too much, the potential is there, but who knows when it will come. In non-keeper leagues, I wouldn’t hold tight, but monitor his stats as the weather gets warmer in the desert.

Geovany Soto – Soto is my best keeper. So far, he has been injured, so you cant hold his slow start against him. I wouldn’t drop or trade him at this point. While Soto is only batting .136, his OBP is .321, which isn’t great, but indicates he isn’t seeing the ball horribly.

Alexei Ramirez – I never loved Alexei – best case scenario is a 20-10 player and that’s not all that special from a middle infielder, especially where he was going in drafts. So far, he is hitting just .159, and, unlike Soto, isn’t taking many walks (and never will). His OBP is .213. It’s hard to steal those 20 bases when you can’t take four balls.

J.J. Hardy – I’m heavily invested in Hardy, so take my analysis as you will. That said, he is an incredibly streaky player. He has perennial back trouble, which could explain why he stinks in the cold weather. For his career, he is a .231 hitter with just a .297 OBP in March/April. He will spread his HRs out, so you don’t have to worry about that. You should hold tight and reap the rewards when he finishes strong.

David Ortiz – I think the 30+ HR hitting Ortiz is gone forever. He is 33, which is pretty old. He did manage 23 HRs in only 416 at bats last year, so he wont completely fall of the edge of the world. But if he isn’t hitting 30+ HRs, he doesn’t have as much value. If you are counting on anything better than a .280 average with 25 HRs and 90 RBIs, you’ll be sorry.

Stephen Drew – Drew, much like his teammate Justin Upton, has gotten off to a slow start. I touted Drew as a shortstop sleeper heading into the draft and I’m not backing off that now. As the temperature gets warmer, Drew heats up. He is a career .252, .257 and .227 hitter in March/April, May and June. He does heat up precipitously, going .282, .291 and .304 in July, August, and September/October. That said, he certainly doesn’t seem safer than a Jhonny Peralta at the moment. Keep an eye on him and wait for someone to get sick of his lack of production and grab him in mid-summer.

Brandon Phillips – What a Jekyll and Hyde season last year (.280/15/19 SBs in the first half, .225/6/4 SBs in the second half). Unfortunately Phillips has been more Jekyll than Hyde this year. If I owned him, I’d strongly consider selling at this moment. That is a lot of at bats of ineptitude – maybe pitchers have the book on him. He seems a far cry from a 20/20 threat.

Howie Kendrick – I’ve never loved Howie Kendrick, yet he is on my most important team. He is supposed to be a batting title contender as long as he stays healthy, yet he is hitting .196/.226/.294 this year. Still, he has a career line of .300/.327/.423 in almost 1,000 at bats. Kendrick is healthy now, so you have to give the hype a month to prove himself, but if he is hitting below .300 come May 1, I’m dropping him for someone who is contributing.

Troy Tulowitzki – Tulowitzki has gotten off to a nice power start with three HRs. That’s about all you can say about his start, though. I’d keep the faith on Tulowitzki. He is a poor first half player in general, and posts really horrible March/April statistics – in 229 at bats, he has six HRs, with a .197 BA and a .284 OBP. So, he’s actually ahead of that pace.

Blue label guys you ain’t worrying about: Jimmy Rollins, Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, Alex Rios, Carlos Beltran. They will be fine. There is no reason to be concerned. Do not think of dropping them. If you try to trade them, insist upon value in the same round you drafted them or at a similar price you paid for them.

h2h_Corner on Twitter
Fantasy Baseball 101 RSS Feed