Tyler Pastornicky, 2012 Fantasy Outlook for Razzball

Tyler Pastornicky, 2012 Fantasy Outlook for Razzball, available at:

http://razzball.com/tyler-pastornicky-2012-fantasy-outlook/

h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: Ian Stewart, Martin Prado, Chris Davis?

Ian Stewart’s 2008 season left fantasy owners begging for full time ABs – over only 81 games/266 ABs, Stewart socked ten HRs. Well, he got those ABs in 2009 and didn’t disappoint much in the power department (25 HRs). His ratios, however, left him almost completely unusable (.228 AVE, .322 OBP). Luckily, those dismal numbers are completely outside his minor league trajectory (six seasons: .293 AVE, .374 OBP). Furthermore, though BAbip isn’t as great a determinant for hitters as it is for pitchers, Stewart’s wildly diverging numbers in 2008 and 2009 warrant at least a glance. In 2009, his BABIP was just .270; in 2008, it was .362. Though far from exact science, this, at least, suggests he is capable of having a few more balls in play drop this coming season. To me, Stewart has the capability to be a .260 hitter with a .350 OBP. I think those numbers are readily attainable. If he gets there, 30 HRs and 90 runs/RBIs should well be within reach. I would love taking a chance on Stewart late in drafts. He is still a young guy and won’t be 25 until April.

h2h Corner ~ The David Wooderson All-Stars (III)

Regardless of your league’s format, knowing the hot up-and-coming prospects is super important to fantasy success. In keeper leagues, these players, often taken in the later rounds, typically form the foundation of fantasy dynasties. In single season leagues, smartly grabbing young players in the draft or shortly after their call-up is essential to success. Any way you look at it, it pays to know something about these general unknowns while they are still unknown. If you wait too long, you’ll be watching as they contribute meaningfully to your buddy’s team as he wins the league.

h2h Corner ~ The David Wooderson All-Stars (II)

Regardless of your league’s format, knowing the hot up-and-coming prospects is super important to fantasy success. In keeper leagues, these players, often taken in the later rounds, typically form the foundation of fantasy dynasties. In single season leagues, smartly grabbing young players in the draft or shortly after their call-up is essential to success. Any way you look at it, it pays to know something about these general unknowns while they are still unknown. If you wait too long, you’ll be watching as they contribute meaningfully to your buddy’s team as he wins the league.

h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: Wade Davis, Brandon Morrow, Homer Bailey?

Brandon Morrow just ended up on the wrong side of a divisional swap. Trading the West for the East won’t help his ratios. Still, there is a lot of good in Morrow: he wont be 26 until July; he has a career 9.3 K/9 rate in the majors; and he has tasted major league success, albeit as a reliever. However, if you look at his statistics as a starter and reliever they are eerily similar: 4.42 ERA, 1.47 WHIP as a starter, 3.65 ERA and 1.46 WHIP as a reliever. Basically, in his beast season (2008), his BAbip was .207. In 2007 it was .321 and, in 2009, it was .287. Unsurprisingly, Morrow’s career has been a yo-yo, his stats have hit highs and lows, he’s been a reliever, then a starter, then a reliever. One would hope he gets a chance to prepare and be a starter for a full season. Still, at the moment, Morrow is nothing more than a cheap lottery chip.

h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: Andre Ethier, Hunter Pence, Ben Zobrist?

Ben Zobrist is quite the conundrum for fantasy owners. He seems to qualify everywhere, he hit 27 HRs last year, stole 17 bases, batted .297 and posted a .405 OBP. What’s more, that HR total wasn’t completely flukey, as he smacked 12 dingers in only 62 games in 2008, so there was a chance he could hit more given the opportunity. Of course, he only managed to hit 23 HRs and steal 20 bases in 1,335 minor league ABs – so there was a ton of reasons to doubt him. Zobrist will be 29 in May, so he is in the sweet spot of his prime. I think you can bank on decent AVEs and OBPs, 20 or so HRs and 15 SBs for the next couple of years.

h2h Corner ~ 2010 Pitcher Rankings

Chicks dig the long ball, and so do I. That’s just one of the many reasons I prefer evaluating hitters to pitchers. From a ranking perspective, hitters are more predictable and stable from year to year. In addition, they tend not to be as infected by the injury bug. Because of this, I approach pitchers a tad different from other fantasy writers when creating my ranks for h2h leagues.

h2h Corner ~ 2010 Outfielder Rankings

Outside of Jacoby Ellsbury, there aren’t too many surprises in my top 10 outfielders. That said, I think Justin Upton deserves special recognition, particularly since he’s so young (he’ll turn 23 in August). In just 138 games last year, Upton hit 26 HRs, scored 84 runs, knocked in 86 and stole 20 bases.

h2h Corner ~ 2010 Shortstop Rankings

One of the toughest rankings this year goes to a player who I’ve had the pleasure of hating since he hit a memorable (non)HR in 1996. Cap’n Jetes was superb last year: 107 runs, 18 HRs, 66 RBIs, 30 SBs, a .334 AVE and .406 OBP. According to some advanced metrics, Jeter also somehow became a much better fielder in his 14th season. At lot of this defensive improvement has to do with a supposed change in his off-season workout regime. If that is the case, what is to say the Cap’n ages like a normal player?

h2h Corner ~ 2010 Third Basemen Rankings

I did a great deal of analysis on third baseman in the main hitter ranking column; so, if you want in-depth analysis on Youk, Aramis Ramirez, Chone Figgins, Ryan Zimmerman, and Mark Reynolds check out those articles. In addition, you can see all my ranks here.